On the home strait? A path to peace in Iran
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What is the new framework deal that could end the Iran‑Israel‑Hezbollah conflict?
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.
And I'm Rosie Blore.
Today on the show, how to divide the coming AI windfall and our World Cup team profiles conclude with England.
First up though.
At last a framework deal is in place to put an end to the Iran war. That's almost as much as anyone knows. Even that was unlikely as of yesterday, the day President Donald Trump had promised an agreement would be signed, though Pakistani mediators weren't so definitive. Then another cycle of strikes between Hezbollah and Israel that threatened to scupper the whole plan. Mr. Trump tenderly sought calm on social media by saying, Don't blow it. And then, overnight, something of a deal. To be signed in Geneva on Friday.
We know only a couple of details of what is actually in this agreement. Greg Carlstrom is a Middle East correspondent for The Economist. It is meant to extend the ceasefire across the region, including in Lebanon, and it is meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within thirty days. Beyond that, the details are sketchy and there is a more comprehensive agreement that America and Iran will still need to negotiate.
You mentioned that Lebanon is included in the deal. That's where over the weekend the whole process nearly came unstuck.
It was. We saw another exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel over the weekend. Hezbollah firing drones into northern Israel, and then Israel, which had threatened to retaliate for such attacks by bombing Beirut, the Lebanese capital, made good on those threats, did so later in the day on Sunday, killing at least three people. And then at that point, Iran threatened to to carry out missile strikes against Israel, which is something it had vowed to do whenever Israel bombed Beirut. So it looked like we were stuck in the same sort of cycle that we were in the previous weekend. It looked as if the possibility of a deal might be slipping away, only to have this somewhat surprising late night announcement from both America and Iran that they had in fact reached
It does seem that this story has been much less Iran and America and more Israel and Lebanon along the way, and that Israel has almost defied America at various points. What do you read into that?
We don't know if it's real or if it's a bit of diplomatic theater.
What are the key provisions of the overnight Iran‑US agreement on the Strait of Hormuz?
Donald Trump has publicly criticized the Israelis for striking in Beirut. He said it shouldn't have happened. But we don't know if in private he actually gave Israel a green light to do that. And this public messaging was just meant to placate or avoid antagonizing the Iranians. But nonetheless, I think the strain here between the US and Israel. Israel underscores the fact that they went into this war together, but with different aims. And ultimately, for the Trump administration, the focus of the war became the Strait of Hormos, right? It became figuring out a way to reopen the Strait. They tried doing that by imposing a blockade on Iran. They tried doing it through military means. They weren't able to do it.
And so now I think they feel as if they have no chance. choice but to make an agreement that will reopen the strait and get oil and gas moving again. Whereas for Israel, their priorities were different in this war. They wanted to do more damage to Iran's not just nuclear program, but its missile program, its regional proxies such as Hezbollah. And so we got to a point where their interests simply diverged and the Israelis, I think, are quite unhappy. with the sort of deal that has emerged between the US and Iran.
So about what's in the deal more broadly or eventually more concretely, is this, as you've said before, just a deal to do some deal making in the future or does this have some sharp edges?
It's a deal to do more deal making. And I think we should also be clear that none of us have seen the deal yet. And we're not likely to see it until it is signed on Friday. And until then, we're going to hear a lot of competing claims from America and Iran. They will both want to present this deal in the most favorable light for themselves, but we should be skeptical of those claims because some of them are going to be non-
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the new framework deal that could end the Iran‑Israel‑Hezbollah conflict?
0:03–2:57
2
What are the key provisions of the overnight Iran‑US agreement on the Strait of Hormuz?
2:57–5:28
3
How likely is the deal to hold and what are the risks of it collapsing?
5:28–7:51
4
Why are AI billionaires getting richer while most Americans see no benefit?
7:51–11:17
5
What policy ideas are being discussed to redistribute AI‑generated wealth in the US?
11:17–13:56
6
How would a public wealth fund funded by AI equity work and what could it pay out to citizens?
13:56–16:40
7
What are England’s chances at the World Cup and why do fans feel both hope and dread?
16:40–19:31
8
What are the main take‑aways from today’s episode and what should listeners watch for next?
19:31–23:12