Chapter 1: What prompted President Trump to pursue Greenland?
Over the weekend, President Trump got a message. It was about Greenland.
Trump received a text message from the prime minister of Norway saying, let's hold on, let's have a chat and talk this through ostensibly.
That's our colleague Max Colchester, who's been following the story.
And Trump replies with this amazing message, essentially saying that because he was snubbed by the Nobel Prize Committee, he's no longer committed to the pursuit of peace and that he should take control of Greenland.
On Monday, the exchange went public. It was just one example of a European leader scrambling to deal with Trump's renewed push to control Greenland, which is part of Denmark. And it raised the question of whether the U.S. would turn to military force to help him get it, especially after comments the president made earlier this month.
We're not going to have Russia or China occupy Greenland, and that's what they're going to do if we don't.
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Chapter 2: How are European leaders reacting to Trump's Greenland proposal?
So we're going to be doing something with Greenland either the nice way or the more difficult way.
We've seen a significant escalation in the rhetoric around Greenland. We've seen him come out and say, America needs Greenland for national security reasons, and anyone who stands in my way of getting it will be punished.
Now, Europe is wondering if the U.S. is turning from a steadfast ally into an urgent threat.
This is potentially a huge deal, which could see a reshaping of the transatlantic relationship between Europe and America.
Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Tuesday, January 20th. Coming up on the show, the diplomatic rupture between the U.S.
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Chapter 3: What are the national security implications of controlling Greenland?
and Europe over Greenland. President Trump has had his eye on Greenland since his first term. And since getting reelected, he's put the issue front and center. At first, Trump expressed interest in buying the island. Denmark, which controls Greenland, said it wasn't for sale. Here's Danish Prime Minister Meta Fredriksen.
Greenland is today a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It's a part of our territory. And it's not for sale.
European Union leaders stood behind Denmark.
Chapter 4: What is the significance of the EU sending troops to Greenland?
And for a while, that was that. But then, early this month, Trump made a big geopolitical move that stunned the world. The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and that signaled he was serious about a new era of foreign policy.
But it was in the wake of that action in Venezuela that everyone said, well, if you're willing to take that kind of action in Venezuela, what would you do about Greenland? And he then came back and said, well, actually, yeah, we need Greenland. And so now suddenly this was a U.S. leader who was willing to take those kinds of risks.
Trump frames the argument for U.S. control of Greenland as an issue of national security. The island is a potentially rich source of rare earth minerals, which are crucial for everything from magnets to chips to defense systems.
Chapter 5: How did Trump respond to the EU's military presence in Greenland?
Trump also points to increased Russian military presence in the Arctic and says that the region will be at the center of the next global power struggle.
We have to have it. They have to have this done. They can't protect it. Denmark, they're wonderful people. And I know the leaders, they're very good people, but they don't even go there.
What Trump was saying in his argument for controlling Greenland is that essentially the EU and Denmark in particular doesn't have the financial muscle to actually defend Greenland or protect the Arctic. So that's the premise of this.
Then, on January 15th, the EU sent a contingent of troops to Greenland. The idea, according to Max's reporting, was to show Trump that they were willing and able to defend the region.
Chapter 6: What economic tools does the EU have against U.S. pressure?
Troops arriving in Greenland. The Danish military just posting these images that we're showing you of troops arriving in Greenland.
And it wasn't a very big contingent. It was a few dozen soldiers from a handful of European countries. And they arrived. And the way some European officials now see it is that Trump saw that not as a show of strength by Europe, as a sort of an antagonistic move by Europe to basically tell him to back off.
Just to be clear, so the EU, from their perspective, they were sending a small contingent of troops to Greenland to say, hey, look, we can protect this territory. And now they're feeling like Trump saw that move as an aggressive step by the EU.
Yeah, exactly. This was a bunch of European countries trying to flex their muscles and that actually Trump took this as a slight as opposed to a reassurance.
Chapter 7: What do Greenlanders think about becoming part of the U.S.?
And so what did Trump do in response?
So Trump's response was to come out on Truth Social and threaten the contingent of around seven European countries that sent those troops with 10% tariffs by February 1st if they continued to stand in his way and stop him purchasing Greenland.
And they said that he would escalate that to 25% if they didn't basically relinquish and allow him to buy Greenland and that this would stay in place until the deal was done.
European leaders tried to avoid escalating the situation further. On Sunday, the prime minister of Norway sent that message to Trump, expressing his opposition to the tariffs and trying to convince the president to talk it over. French President Emmanuel Macron messaged Trump as well, saying, quote, My friend, we are totally in line on Syria. We can do great things on Iran.
I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland. But Trump didn't back down. And now Europe is considering retaliating.
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Chapter 8: What are the potential outcomes of the Davos meeting regarding Greenland?
The EU does have a tool called the anti-coercion instrument or the bazooka, as they call it, whereby they can impose pretty stringent export and import restrictions on a country that tries to economically blackmail them. They could restrict certain products they export to the US. They could make it harder for US tech firms to operate here by tightening regulation.
They could impose tariffs on certain US products. They could also restrict access to the financial markets here for US firms, which again would be problematic for them. So they have tools to inflict economic pain on US-based businesses.
How big a deal would that be for the US and how risky for Europe?
it'd be very risky for Europe, because obviously the US could respond. And we've seen with Trump, he tends to escalate when faced with aggression. So, you know, it's something that has to be calibrated very carefully. And I think it's something that would take a while to deploy.
And actually quite a lot of the EU members would probably lobby against extremely stringent measures, fearing blowback on their own economies. So it's not a silver bullet. But, you know, in the face of some provocation, they're going to have to do something. So if those tariffs that Trump is threatening on February 1st come into play, they can't just sit back and swallow them.
So there is increasing pressure on European leaders to reflect that public anger at this move on Greenland. So they will come under pressure to actually bare teeth against the U.S.
Trump maintains that the U.S. has a lot to gain from controlling Greenland, from securing the Arctic to mining rare earth minerals. But is all the geopolitical turmoil worth it? Max went to Greenland to find out. That's next. You were just in Greenland on a reporting trip. Can you set the scene? Where were you? What was it like on the ground?
Yeah, so I flew to Nuuk, which is the capital of Greenland, which is on the western coast. And I think it's hard really to get a sense across really how big Greenland is and how empty it is. I mean, when you fly over Greenland from Europe at least, it's massive. And it looks like the moon. It's this huge frozen expanse. It's nearly like sci-fi when you approach Nuke.
And this is a country which is slightly bigger than Mexico. It is 80% ice. It has a very tiny population of around 57,000 people who live mainly on the coast, the southwestern coast, because the rest is ice. There's less than 100 miles of paved road in Greenland. So this is a very, like... sparsely populated and for a large part inhospitable place.
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