Iran Thinks It’s Winning the War
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What announcement is made at the beginning of the episode?
Hey, it's Jess. And Ryan. Before we kick off today's episode, we have a fun announcement to make. We are doing a live show again. We love doing our live show in New York so much that we decided to take it on the road. This time we'll be in Los Angeles at the El Rey Theater on Tuesday, April 28th. And just like last time, we're going to have special guests. And since we'll be in LA, you can prepare for a night of money, business, and power conversations about Hollywood. And after the show, Ryan and I will stick around to meet you all. Tickets go on sale this Wednesday, March 25th at 10 a.m. Pacific. You can find the link in our show notes. And again, the show is going to be at the El Rey Theater in LA on Tuesday, April 28th.
Tickets go on sale this Wednesday, March 25th. Hope to see you there.
We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion. — How good is our military?
— Since the war in Iran started, President Trump has been saying that it would be over quickly, thanks to a swift military campaign. And the campaign has been swift. The U.S. and Israel have delivered a significant blow to much of Iran's military capabilities. The campaign has killed Iran's supreme leader, along with dozens of others in the country's leadership, destroyed many of its missile launchers, decimated its navy, and inflicted even more damage to its nuclear program. But despite this success, Iran seems to think that it has the upper hand.
By controlling the state of our moves, you control the price of oil, therefore you control the clock.
Yaroslav Trofimov is the journal's chief foreign affairs correspondent. And he says that Iran has taken the Strait of Hormuz, a historically open waterway where a quarter of the world's oil passes through, and turned it into a powerful economic weapon by threatening to attack any ships that dare enter.
So the longer this goes on, the higher the prices get, the more severe the shortages around the world. And the more pressure there is on President Trump from the energy markets, but also from bond markets, to accept Iranian demands. And so, I mean, the Iranian calculation is that as long as they control the strait, time works in their favor.
After talking with sources throughout the region, Yaroslav says it's now clear what Iran wants to get out of this war and what its endgame is. To turn the Strait of Hormuz into a massive tollbooth.
What Iran is doing is saying, look, now it's our waters. Anybody passing through here must pay us a toll and get permission from us. And so they are trying to basically transform this international waterway into a tollbooth that will sustain the regime going forward. And if that is allowed to happen, that would really transform the balance of power in the entire Middle East and the world, because Iran will be dominating global energy markets. So now they are, in a way, in a much stronger position than they were before the war. And if the war ends with them still controlling the state of Hormuz, that would be a strategic victory for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Ryan Knudsen. It's Tuesday, March 24th. Coming up on the show, what Iran wants from this war.
Can you take me inside the Iranian regime? What is left of it at this point?
Well, I think, you know, the Iranian system was always very complicated because you had on the surface elections and the parliament and a president who is still there, but who really holds very little actual power. Then you have the Revolutionary Guard, the IRGC, that is really the strongest force and has the strongest military muscle.
On top of this entire system is the supreme leader. The last one was killed at the start of the war.
And after his death, his son, Mostafa Khamenei, was named as the new supreme leader, but nobody has seen him. Nobody has heard him since then. It's not clear whether he's alive, and if he's alive, if he's been injured, and how badly.
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