Chapter 1: What announcement is made at the beginning of the episode?
Hey, it's Jess. And Ryan. Before we kick off today's episode, we have a fun announcement to make. We are doing a live show again. We love doing our live show in New York so much that we decided to take it on the road. This time we'll be in Los Angeles at the El Rey Theater on Tuesday, April 28th. And just like last time, we're going to have special guests.
And since we'll be in LA, you can prepare for a night of money, business, and power conversations about Hollywood. And after the show, Ryan and I will stick around to meet you all. Tickets go on sale this Wednesday, March 25th at 10 a.m. Pacific. You can find the link in our show notes. And again, the show is going to be at the El Rey Theater in LA on Tuesday, April 28th.
Tickets go on sale this Wednesday, March 25th. Hope to see you there.
We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion. — How good is our military?
— Since the war in Iran started, President Trump has been saying that it would be over quickly, thanks to a swift military campaign. And the campaign has been swift. The U.S. and Israel have delivered a significant blow to much of Iran's military capabilities.
The campaign has killed Iran's supreme leader, along with dozens of others in the country's leadership, destroyed many of its missile launchers, decimated its navy, and inflicted even more damage to its nuclear program. But despite this success, Iran seems to think that it has the upper hand.
By controlling the state of our moves, you control the price of oil, therefore you control the clock.
Yaroslav Trofimov is the journal's chief foreign affairs correspondent. And he says that Iran has taken the Strait of Hormuz, a historically open waterway where a quarter of the world's oil passes through, and turned it into a powerful economic weapon by threatening to attack any ships that dare enter.
So the longer this goes on, the higher the prices get, the more severe the shortages around the world. And the more pressure there is on President Trump from the energy markets, but also from bond markets, to accept Iranian demands. And so, I mean, the Iranian calculation is that as long as they control the strait, time works in their favor.
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Chapter 2: How does Iran perceive its position in the war?
And so, in fact, the power seems to have come to the Revolutionary Guard.
The Revolutionary Guard is described as a state within a state. It's a tough military force that was hardened by a long and bloody war with Iraq in the 1980s.
So the commanders, they are determined to keep fighting. This is a very solid organization with many layers. They've been preparing for this war against what they call the Great Satan and the Little Satan since the revolution in 1979. They knew it was going to happen, and they made plans, perhaps unlike the U.S. And now they're executing them.
One of the ways to fight against the U.S. and Israel, what Iran calls the Great Satan and Little Satan, involves the Strait of Hormuz. It's a 100-mile stretch of waterway that connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. At its narrowest point, it's just 21 miles across. About 20% of the world's natural gas passes through it, as well as about a quarter of the world's oil.
There's also aluminum and fertilizer.
And then again, if you look at the Gulf states, a lot of the imports that sustain them, food, cement, you name it, it's all coming to their ports through the Strait of Hormuz. So it's really one of the most vital waterways in the world.
And Iran is holding the Strait hostage by threatening to unleash missiles, drones, or underwater mines at any passing ship. And for the past couple of weeks, no ships have passed through the Strait without Iran's explicit permission.
They're letting a few very small numbers from so-called friendly countries like China and India. But they are talking about making this a permanent system and insisting that any ceasefire with the U.S. will involve a new international arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz.
I'm honestly a little bit surprised that Iran hasn't tried to create a tollbooth out of the Strait of Hormuz in the past, given how much leverage it gives the country. Why haven't they?
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Chapter 3: What strategic advantage does Iran seek from controlling the Strait of Hormuz?
And so he makes a threat, right? He says that I'm going to escalate by bombing energy infrastructure if Iran doesn't reopen this. And then he said, actually, there's been productive talks. We're going to not do that yet.
Correct. Correct. So the Iranian response to this was, well, it was an empty threat and we called his bluff.
Iranians also said there actually weren't any talks taking place between the U.S. and Iran. So it's a little unclear what's happening.
The positions are still very much far apart because Iran thinks it's winning. And Iran thinks that time is on its side. And this statement by Trump was seen in Iran as a victory because the Iranians have warned that if Trump strikes Iranian energy infrastructure, they will strike back across the Gulf and plunge Gulf countries into darkness.
Under what conditions does Iran say it will end the war?
The demands they are issuing right now officially are a massive reparation. So billions and billions of dollars to be paid by the U.S. taxpayers to Iran to compensate for all the destruction in the last three weeks. Be the removal of all American bases from the Middle East. So America has to basically surrender the Middle East to Iranian domination.
And three, permanent Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz with Iran being paid by every ship that passes through it.
Wow, that does not sound like a country that's negotiating from a position of weakness. They're asking for the whole shebang, basically.
Correct, correct. And that's what they're holding out for. And that's obviously something that neither the U.S. nor the Gulf states find palatable.
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