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The Journal.

The Economy is Booming. Why Does it Feel Like a Bust?

17 Jun 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What unusual economic situation is the U.S. currently experiencing?

5.768 - 12.366 Jessica Mendoza

The U.S. is living through an unusual economic situation right now, a kind of split-screen reality.

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12.386 - 21.229 Harriet Torry

I think for the average person, the economy feels weaker than it actually is.

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21.817 - 40.377 Jessica Mendoza

The country is now in the throes of the highest inflation it's seen in three years, and people are feeling it. Last month, polling from the University of Michigan showed consumer sentiment is at its lowest point in more than 70 years. So I think we all just feel that prices have risen a lot, you know.

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41.118 - 64.851 Jessica Mendoza

Our colleague Harriet Torrey covers the economy, and she's experienced for herself what she's been reporting on, like when she's at the gas station. It definitely cost me a lot more to fill up my Subaru than it did a few months ago. Or at a local shop, buying a $7 candy bar. Hi, can I get a bar of the Dubai chocolate, please? Okay, thanks a lot.

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65.732 - 68.376 Jessica Mendoza

Or when she was at the supermarket the other day, picking up dinner.

Chapter 2: Why do many Americans feel the economy is weaker than it actually is?

68.997 - 75.687 Harriet Torry

Hi, can we get a large pepperoni pizza, please? Yeah, pepperoni as well. Oh, I don't like pepperoni!

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77.302 - 93.04 Harriet Torry

At the grocery store, I personally just find myself looking for deals a lot more. And I managed to spend $100 even though I only left the store with a pretty small bag of groceries. Ouch, how did that feel? Yeah, I mean, it's pretty depressing.

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98.025 - 100.508 Jessica Mendoza

But then there's the other side of the split screen.

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Chapter 3: How is inflation affecting consumer sentiment in America?

101.089 - 109.999 Jessica Mendoza

Economic metrics that seem to tell a very different story. The U.S. economy delivered a surprisingly strong jobs report in May.

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110.019 - 120.093

Wall Street's main indexes rallied on Monday. The unemployment rate, drumroll please, 4.3. That is a very, very nice, historically low rate.

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120.114 - 144.018 Harriet Torry

There was a disconnect between the very strong economy and the economy's growth and people's very negative perception of the economy. I think the central mystery of this economy is that we have a boomy stock market, strong job creation, GDP growth that seems to be perfectly decent, and yet people feel really terrible about the economy.

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145.18 - 153.276 Harriet Torry

How is it that sentiment is so low when the economy, by so many measures, seems to be totally fine?

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156.901 - 197.566 Jessica Mendoza

Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Wednesday, June 17th. Coming up on the show, the economic boom that feels like a bust. If you look at a lot of the data coming out about the economy right now, the U.S. is on pretty solid ground.

198.367 - 205.179 Jessica Mendoza

Take, for example, the jobs report, the monthly report that tracks how many people are getting hired and how many people are out of work.

205.761 - 223.24 Harriet Torry

Yeah, so the jobs report for me was really strong, much stronger than expectations previously. Because a lot of what we saw in the past couple of years was that healthcare was really the only sector that was adding jobs at a steady pace.

224.002 - 227.087 Jessica Mendoza

But now, more jobs are showing up in other industries, too.

227.668 - 249.987 Harriet Torry

So we saw very strong job gains in leisure and hospitality. and also a big increase in hiring in local government. Some economists said that was probably due to the World Cup. But also, just heading into the summer months, places seem to be staffing up, getting ready for higher demand. It seemed to be a sign that the economy is starting to recover.

Chapter 4: What economic metrics suggest a strong economy despite negative perceptions?

551.135 - 563.703 Jessica Mendoza

On the sparkling beaches of South Padre Island in Texas, where Harriet recently spent a long weekend, you can slurp down oysters on the half shell and gaze across the water at the multi-billion dollar SpaceX rocket tower.

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564.305 - 570.679 Harriet Torry

It's this beach resort very close to the border with Mexico, very popular for spring break.

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570.659 - 576.347 Jessica Mendoza

America is in the grips of 4.2% inflation, but you wouldn't necessarily know it here.

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577.148 - 600.896 Harriet Torry

Yeah, I mean, it seemed to be booming. The beaches were full of people. The restaurants were packed. Everyone was out and about and having a great time. And, you know, this is a place that's full of people. Nice hotels, great seafood restaurants, and there are a lot of Teslas on the road. It's clearly enjoying a huge influx of people and spending.

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600.957 - 619.093 Jessica Mendoza

South Padre Island isn't the whole U.S. economy, of course. But Harriet kept running into the same puzzle in her reporting. For all the anxiety about inflation, for all the complaints about higher prices, some people keep opening their wallets.

619.681 - 623.551 Harriet Torry

Yeah, so you hear economists talk a lot about the K-shaped economy.

623.912 - 630.609

What is a K-shaped economy? In a K-shaped economy. America's K-shaped economy is here to stay.

631.953 - 639.238 Jessica Mendoza

Basically, the economy isn't treating everyone the same way. One arm in the K points up, the other line points down.

639.859 - 662.994 Harriet Torry

And what that means is that you have people at the upper end of the income spectrum and people at the lower income spectrum, and their fortunes are increasingly divided. And it's the households at the top that are driving the economy. So upper-income households have been the beneficiaries of a huge run-up in asset values, like the stock market.

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