Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Last Show with David Cooper. Procrastinate your life away with us. For years, you might have heard this story. Americans packing their bags and moving to Canada after an election. Doesn't matter which election. But I'm here with someone whose data suggests that's largely a myth. Why is the perception of folks migrating from the U.S. to Canada different from the reality?
Well, that's what we're going to dig into with Jack Jedwab from the Canadian Studies and Metropolis Institute. Jack, welcome to the show. Thank you very much, David. So you've poured over this data and what have you found?
Chapter 2: Why are more Americans considering moving to Canada?
Are Canadians moving to the U.S. more than Americans are moving to Canada right now? What's the actual story of migration here?
Well, by and large, over the past, say, 30 years, more Canadians have moved to the U.S. than the inverse. We don't have up-to-date data for Canadians moving to the U.S. because since 2023, there's sort of been a hold on releasing data from DHS, from Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, relative to how many people are entering the States and from which countries they're doing so.
But prior to 2023... Leaving the pandemic exceptional year aside, more Canadians have been moving to the US to the inverse. Now, having said that, there has been some uptick in Americans moving to Canada, but not major uptick.
We hear about Americans who are like unhappy with the political situation and end up leaving. But I think in practice that doesn't happen as often as Americans think it does. I think Americans investigate it and then they realize immigration is hard. I say that being a Canadian living in the U.S.
It's not easy to immigrate to a country like some people expect it is, having never done so themselves.
No, I agree completely. I think there's... And what's created a lot of the buzz lately about Americans moving to Canada has been this amendment to legislation in the country that will make for much greater eligibility for citizenship on the part of Americans if they have deeper ancestral ties beyond, say, first generation.
So that presumably is opening up a path to hundreds of thousands of Americans potentially being eligible for Canadian citizenship. But There's a big gap between actually checking your ancestry, which apparently we're seeing some movement in that regard on the part of Americans and actually making the move. Making the move is a bigger decision.
And so you're seeing a lot of the stories in the media lately about that amended legislation. In each of those stories, there's someone being interviewed who doesn't like Donald Trump, right? Who's sort of saying, you know, it's a lot of unpleasant stuff going on in the US. There's that ICE thing going on, which is terrible.
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Chapter 3: What data challenges exist regarding migration trends?
And Donald Trump's doing this and that. So the stories don't look as much about the expansion of the citizenship opportunities they do about politics in the United States and the sort of uneven impact it's having on how people feel. Now, again, jumping from that, I don't like Donald Trump actually moving. There's a process involved in doing that.
There's a lot of decision making involved in doing that.
Chapter 4: How does the perception of migration differ from reality?
And so it's not as simple as some people might think.
It's the sort of considering versus doing gap. People contemplate it because they're unhappy. They see the news, they're unhappy. But then actually getting around to it, leaving your community, figuring out immigration, there's a huge gap there is what you're saying.
Yeah, there is. And we've got a lot of rules here. Now, to be fair, if you can get that easy access to citizenship, then you don't have to go through all of our rules to the same degree, right? You don't have to apply for permanent resident status, that sort of family unification. You're not a refugee. But there are all kinds of rules.
And we're here in Canada with a selection system that also prioritizes people with certain skills, right? So it's not as though everyone in the U.S. that wishes to come to Canada can do so easily. They can't. They got to go through the same process as everybody else.
Now, again, although if you can get the citizenship thing and you've got that ancestor and you're following the legislative changes here in Canada, that would make things a lot easier in terms of a pathway. But again, there is that gap between eligibility and actually making the decision.
The systems are completely different, but I moved from Canada to the US and navigating the US immigration system as someone who's not American was not easy. I can't imagine it's any different in Canada. So if Americans aren't going to Canada, where are they going?
Well, actually, according to some research I've done, amongst top 10 destinations are some countries in Europe. Portugal seems to be popular. Spain seems to be popular because there is a fair bit of movement, I'd say, increase in emigration by Americans to other parts of the world. But people who are leaving are generally people who are better equipped to do so. They're better off economically.
They're in professional positions. Many of them are working remotely, right? That's sort of almost a transnational phenomenon. I can sort of live somewhere else and work with my remotely equipped stuff, you know? So there's a lot of that going on, but Canada does not seem to be one of the top five destinations according to surveys done by Americans.
Now, to be fair, we haven't gone to this part yet, but amongst the Canadians moving to the U.S., and I've done a fair bit of research on that, you've got a disproportionate group that are 55 and over, about half of them. 55 and over. Is it snowbirds going to Florida? Yeah, they're moving there. They're retirees who are, you know, again, got the ability to do so.
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Chapter 5: What factors impact Americans' decisions to immigrate?
Now, the Canadian perspective, if Canadians are leaving, are they leaving more than usual? And if so, where are they going?
So Canadians, their number one destination is the US actually. And again, you've got, when I look at the profile, those Canadians who are leaving, again, 50% of 55 and over, right? So they're either on the verge of retiring or retiring. They're going to those sunnier destinations and there seems to be ways at which they can access the US and still retain dual citizenship, right?
So, because you're allowed to have dual citizenship. Inversely, the Americans coming here are mostly younger, younger families coming here, very often relocating for job opportunities that are different types of opportunities. But if you look at the average income of a lot of the Canadians moving to the United States, it's disproportionately higher than the Americans moving to Canada.
So Americans are trying not only in Canada, but in other countries to target people who are able to contribute at the higher levels of the economy.
Are we looking at like advanced education here or more money in your wallet, higher salaries? These are the kinds of folks that find mobility easy.
Yeah, exactly. And that works both ways to some extent, but I'd say much more so on the Canadian side moving to the U.S. than the U.S. side moving to Canada.
Is there any generational shift in thinking?
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Chapter 6: What recent legislative changes affect American citizenship in Canada?
Like do younger Americans and Canadians think differently about migration than previous generations?
I'm not getting that impression, although if you look at survey data, young people today seem more inclined than previously to be interested in living somewhere else. And that's true both in the United States and in Canada. But again, we get into this whole issue about intentions and what people say in surveys and then the actual move and what that entails.
You are seeing more of this transnational phenomenon. It's hard to really capture how significant it is, but it could be a growing phenomenon amongst younger people where they're able to work remotely. you know, able to live in sort of two places at the same time, you know, three places if you consider some of them living in cyberspace.
Jack, is the bottom line, despite what people are saying about the political situation, either side of the border and whether they're contemplating moving, is the bottom line migration's just not happening that much more than usual right now?
I think migration is – well, we were up to record levels of immigration in Canada until end of year 2024 when our government announced a 25% cutback on permanent residence, on massive cuts in study permit. significant cuts in temporary workers. We're seeing a lot of pushback on migration. And the U.S.
is seeing a lot of pushback and actually not only pushback on immigration, but actually trying to send a lot of people back to the countries they came from as well. So a rollback almost. So there's a lot of, if you like, a lot of rules that are being put out there to make it more challenging for people to come from various parts of the world. It has a chilling effect. Yeah, exactly.
And it's not only about economic opportunity and housing, which is a massive problem in both Canada and in many American cities, which is also a potential obstacle to migration because you've got to figure out where you're going to live. But there's also global instability that people are really nervous about.
We're seeing how that plays out more in the US than Canada in some ways in terms of refugee admission and the broader migration phenomenon.
Well, Jack Jedwab is from the Canadian Studies and Metropolis Institute. Jack, I've enjoyed the chat. Thanks for being on the show.
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