Jamie Dimon: Why I Won't Buy Bonds, AI's Future & Leadership Lessons
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
When I look at AI itself, the amount of money being spent is huge. Will it in total pay off? Probably, just like the internet did. Will it pay off the way you expect and the timetable you expect? Definitely not.
At the moment, long-dated government bonds, would you be a buyer of those?
But personally, no. I would not be a buyer. And part of it is interest rates, inflation. I mean, even if inflation was 2%, the 10-year bond should probably be at 4.5 or 4 to 4.5. And they're almost there today. Being an economic historian, I can't take out of my mind what happened after the Great Recession of 74. That last thing, and you actually have to sign the piece of paper. And you know when you sign that piece of paper that you've just committed the company, not just yourself, to back-breaking scary work for 12 months and that your shareholder would be under pressure. Yeah, you know you're entering a maelstrom that you could have avoided. Yeah, you feel a pit in your stomach and that is lonely too.
Welcome to the Master Investor Podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, where we celebrate and learn from the success of the greatest investors, business leaders, and politicians in the world, giving you, our listeners, the edge. The Master Investor Podcast is sponsored by LSEG, Interactive Brokers, the World Gold Council, and BNY Investments. Please do remember the views expressed in this podcast are for general information purposes only. Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice or a personal recommendation. More on that in the show notes. My guest today is the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world of finance and banking, Jamie Dimon, of course, the chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, a bank he took over in January 2006 and has led for the last 20 years through the financial crisis, through the sovereign debt crisis, through COVID, through the 2023 banking crisis, and each time emerging stronger on the other side.
Jamie, it is great to see you again. Welcome to the Master Investor Podcast. I'm Thrilled to be here. It's always good to see you, Wilf. It's really a treat to have you. We've done about seven or eight interviews together, but I've never done something as long form as this. So thank you for your time. Let's go in the short term, first of all, though. And your earnings just a few days ago, blockbuster, the highest ever quarterly profit, $21.2 billion, up 41%. I don't want to put a negative question on it, but can things go on that well?
So, you know, listen, first of all, we built a company for the long run. And obviously, we deal, you mentioned crises and ups and downs. We're clearly in a very, almost as good as it gets environment for banks, high volumes, high asset prices, a lot of people trading, et cetera. So this can go on for a while. It will eventually end, you know, but it's not how we run the bank. I run the bank. We serve clients. We serve them around the world. We serve them every day. We invest through thick or thin. I remind people, our best year wasn't the year we made the most money. Our best year was the year we had only a 7% return on tangible equity. It was 2008. And that outperformed everybody, and that was our finest moment.
In a relative sense, and I guess setting you up for the long term. And as you say, the current environment, we had, again, good economic data this morning on the retail sales front. The environment for your stock is good. The environment for your company is good. The environment for the economy is good. At the same time, do you think the probability of a major risk suddenly arising is a bit higher than, you know, you've been in charge for 20 years? If you took out 2008 and COVID, is the risk, the tail risk bigger than outside of those moments?
I think, I mean, first of all, it's very intelligent to say it was the probability because we don't know which probability is baked into the market. There's something baked in. I tell people, if you said the market's going to fall 40%, there's only a 10% chance, that's 4%.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–6:18
2
How does Jamie Dimon assess the current macroeconomic environment for banks?
6:18–13:31
3
Why does Jamie Dimon believe tail risks are larger than people expect?
13:31–17:06
4
Can the global economy withstand renewed conflict in the Middle East and higher oil prices?
17:06–39:08
5
Why would Jamie Dimon 'not be a buyer' of long‑dated government bonds today?
39:08–48:26
6
What is Jamie Dimon's balanced view on AI: opportunity, timeline and job impacts?
48:26–1:00:45
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost
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