Anand Menon: King’s College London Professor says change of UK leadership imminent
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What prompted the discussion about Keir Starmer's resignation?
Well, if you followed the Starmer reports over the weekend, he's about to quit, which is quite the turnaround from last week where he was staying on to fight. But the make-a-field vote delivered Andy Burnham. The Starmer loyalists over the weekend seem to have seen the writing on the wall. It's just a matter of time now. Anand Menon is Professor in European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King's College in London and is with us. Good morning. Morning to you too. Hope you're well. I am very well indeed. Do we begin this conversation in alignment that Starmer is gone and there seems no question about that? Yeah, it seems pretty clear.
I mean, there's been a series of headlines in the UK press over the weekend saying he intends to stand down at some time today, which is a few hours time for us in the UK.
Who is expected to take over Labour's leadership?
We'll have to wait and see if that's true. My hunch is even should he decide to fight on, which seems unlikely. he will almost certainly lose. So I think it's a matter of when rather than if.
And is there a contest? Does that contest involve Burnham and Streeting and or anyone else? Or does Burnham get anointed? Well, to be honest, we don't know.
It is possible that Burnham simply becomes prime minister because no one stands against him. And here you're talking about the dynamics of politics. There are other people like West Streeting who've said they intend to stand. What we don't know is whether they can gather the necessary 81 MPs to support them in order to stand, or even whether, given the momentum that Andy Burnham seems to have built up for himself, whether those people think to themselves, I can stand and queer the pitch with the new prime minister who looks like he's going to win. or I can offer to stand down in return for a good cabinet job. So there'll be all those calculations being made at the moment.
Assuming Burnham gets there one way or another, is there an issue with him being prime minister unelected by the people of Britain until 2029?
I mean, this isn't the first time we've done this in the United Kingdom. So in that sense, we've got form. So no, I think many people will see The lack of an election means that he's a little bit constrained in what he can do in the sense that Labour were elected on a manifesto in 2024. And it's unlikely he will be able to diverge too far from that manifesto, given the way our system works. But actually, I don't think. even though you'll hear the Conservatives and Reform UK demanding an election, the fact that the Conservatives changed Prime Minister so many times themselves without an election, I think suggests that we're not going to have one.
What about the markets? The gilt markets over the weekend, a little bit edgy because he's left of Starmer. Is he left of Starmer? And if so, how far left? And given what you just told us, is he the answer or any real change?
Well, I'm going to have to give you a disappointing answer to this, which is that I simply don't know. I mean, he's made some comments. We don't know how binding those comments are on him as Prime Minister. The things you say to get elected in a by-election might be things that are different to what you say if you become Prime Minister. A lot will hinge on the team he appoints. There's a big debate about whether or not he's going to appoint Ed Miliband as his Chancellor, for instance. There is a suggestion that the markets won't like that. So we're going to have to wait and see because one of the curious things about this process is Andy Burnham hasn't got a manifesto. He doesn't have a program for government.
He's simply been elected. an MP. And one of the dangers, I think, of not having a contest for the leadership is we don't have a battle of ideas. We don't get to hear what he thinks about anything from the level of debt to policy towards Israel to relations with the United States. He simply becomes prime minister and then we find out.
All right. Appreciate your time, Ann and Menden. We'll get him back later on the week, of course, because I think the whole thing's going to unfold over the next 24, 48 hours.
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