Chapter 1: What is the OECD report's impact on New Zealand's superannuation settings?
the newsmakers and the personalities the big names talk to mike the mike hosking breakfast with bailey's real estate 100 kiwi owned and operated news talks at b morning and welcome today the finance minister on the oecd's ideas for our economy david kirk from the rugby union on his new president his new ceo and a loss or was it uh tim and katie after eight simon marks in the states and murray olds in australia
We're into it for Friday morning. Welcome to it. Why now, Sean? Eh? Why now, Sean? I had COVID vibes yesterday when I read Sean Sweeney's thinking about the CRL.
COVID vibes because during that period, I cannot tell you how many people I know and regularly dealt with, people in the media, people from business who said one thing about the government and their handling of lockdowns and the economy, and they did that in private and something completely different in public.
So, Sean, having left the CRL to head to Ireland, now having left Ireland but has stopped by long enough to tell us we don't scope or price major projects that well. Huh! Well, who knew? The CRL at well over $5 billion is a gargantuan waste of money. I mean, yes, it will improve things, and on paper it makes sense because it joins up some rail lines so you can go round and round and round.
But like most things in life, convenience or improvement or efficiency comes at a cost. What's a terrific idea at $50 is a waste at $200.
And for something that started out at about $2 and will come in at about $6, as in billion, the CRL has reached the stage where no one really wants to accept responsibility anymore for the price and delays because it got so embarrassing a long time ago and tipped over into that, well, let's just make the most of it and hope it works.
It won't, of course, not to the extent they dreamed, because what they dream of is New York or London, and we've never been that and never will be. Anyway, part of where Sean is right is Is ideology blinds common sense? Too many people want to say. And before you know it, everything is a combination of delayed and expensive. And yes, the fast-track RMA reform will help.
Less legal action will help. Fewer opportunities for review will help. And God forbid, cross-party support would help as well. What would also help is some backbone. People who say what they believe, whether it gets them attention or into trouble or not. There are too many pussies in places of influence, basically.
Too many spineless, scaredy cats who want the job or the title or the reputation or the pay packet and just grin and bear it or defend it or lie about it or babble nonsensical rubbish instead of being honest. As much as I appreciate Sean telling it like it is and he's right...
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Chapter 2: How is the economic state of rugby in New Zealand changing?
and possibly someone in charge might take notice. Oh, the irony of Bishop yesterday launching a review. What I would appreciate more was the same commentary before he filed the resignation letter and scarped it.
News of the world in 90 seconds.
We are, it has been suggested, standing by for a response from the Iranians to the ending of the war. The Strait, of course, and its control is the issue.
The Strait of Hormuz has always been that bargaining chip that Iran was going to use more than anything else. What they're going to look to do is try to seal the deal on them owning it, essentially, rather than have it be independent of nations the way it should be.
In the middle of Australia, companies like Maersk, who have seen their costs, of course, rocket. And you know what happens when that happens?
That implies about half a billion dollars of extra cost per month since the beginning of this. For us, what is really important is actually to pass on these cost increases to our customers as much as possible so that we can protect our margin.
Also on the water, but with different issues, our rat crews with the Canary Islands freaking out it's the new COVID, which it isn't.
This is not COVID. This is not influenza. It spreads very, very differently. So there are different precautions that people are taking. So we are supporting the ship's operators in the mitigation measures that they are putting on board. And as we've said, we are working to have a proper and full disembarkment.
Then stateside, it's an old classic reheated as borders are Tom Homan lines up New York. New York wants none of it.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the new CEO appointment for NZ Rugby?
We're going to fly them to Texas, Arizona, to one of the detention facilities there, away from their families, away from their attorneys. This is what we have to do because she forces this position.
And then it is happy 100th to David Attenborough, fellow traveler Michael Palin with the best wishes.
He's curious, he's careful, he's thorough. He has a marvellous way of communicating with people. And the fact that he's been broadcasting for 60 or 70 years without ever lowering the standards of the work he does is truly remarkable.
That just means he's not old. Voice is old now, isn't it? Baseball. Chicago Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd, he's injured. He's out for a considerable amount of time because he's torn his left meniscus. Why on earth am I telling you this? Well, the twist of the story is he torn his meniscus sitting down to play with his kids. Manager said it's kind of unexplainable.
He'll need surgery, for goodness sake. That's news of the world. And bad luck. In 90... Here's a contrast of what's going on in the world. Shell this morning, their profit for the quarter, just the quarter, is $6.92 billion. It's never been a better time to be in oil. They've also announced their agreement to buy the Canadian ARC resources for $16.4 billion.
Meantime, on the same morning, Whirlpool, who make washing machines, says consumer confidence has collapsed in late February and March. It's underscored how sharply higher fuel prices and collapsing consumer confidence has affected the industry. It has caused recession-level industry decline. So it depends where you are as to whether you're doing good or not. 12 past six.
The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB. Norway's central bank has moved overnight 25 basis points to 4.25%, 15 past six. Right, I'm sure, and partners, Andrew Callagher, welcome to Friday.
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Chapter 4: How does the current housing market trend affect first-time buyers?
Hi, Mike. These markets are just doing the whirlpool thing and the oil thing. It's a fascinating time of the month. You look at these markets at the moment, you wouldn't think anything's wrong with the world, would you? Absolutely not.
I mean, I mentioned yesterday that while we were anticipating the resolution of the Middle East conflicts, that anticipation has manifested itself physically in what, I mean, I was going to use the word massive. Let's call it a very robust situation. surge in global share markets. And I guess there's always a bit of context here, isn't there, Mike?
Because when this whole brouhaha kicked off, I sort of received phone calls from investors. They're saying, oh, should they liquidate their portfolios? And our response is always, you know, keep your long-term objectives in mind.
But this morning, to close out the first week of the third month of the conflict, I do want to talk about the magnitude of this, what we're calling a risk-on rally, because I'm not sure we've talked about just how dramatic this has been.
From the market low of this conflict, that was the 30th of March, the S&P 500 benchmark US index, large part of global markets, that has bounced 16.1% in just over five weeks. That is a phenomenal rebound. If I told you I'm going to give you 16% return... Well, you'd be pretty happy, wouldn't you? Forget that. The tech index, the NASDAQ, that's been even more pronounced.
It's up 24.3% since late March. So, look, I'm sure our discerning audience out there are going to ask the obvious question, and that's, well, why? Well, going into this, there's a few factors behind this, but going into this situation, there was actually quite a bit of what we call cash on the sidelines. There were large balances in what are termed money market mutual funds.
Now, we can only speculate. We have to wait to see the data. But this could be being deployed into the share market once it sort of fell quite a bit. And the markets are also reflecting this optimism or anticipating the end of the conflict. So this is very much what we used to call in the old days, buy the rumour.
But also, and possibly more importantly, it's because of what has been a very, very robust first quarter earnings season. for the S&P 500 companies.
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Chapter 5: What are the challenges facing New Zealand's energy affordability?
So Mike, so quick 101, share markets tend to follow earnings at a very simple level. If company earnings go up, share markets are at least supported or they go up. And as we stand at this point, this earnings season isn't over, earnings growth is currently at 27.1%. So blended year-on-year earnings growth rate of the S&P 500 is just over 27%. That's the highest year-on-year
Earnings growth rate has been reported for the S&P 500 since the fourth quarter of 2021. And just to finish it off, because we like to throw these numbers out there, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, that is up 60.6% since late March. So that index covers, unsurprisingly, companies involved in the semiconductor industry, think NVIDIA. So, look, it's just gone gangbusters.
So I would say embrace this. Enjoy the rebound in your KiwiSaver balance. But just be a little bit wary because last time I looked, the boats still aren't moving through the Strait of Hormuz. But markets certainly think they're going to be very soon. And then what do you reckon about the jobs tonight? We got the private ones earlier on the week.
Every time you look at jobs in America, it seems OK, doesn't it? Well, that's exactly the point, Mike. That's exactly the point. The other factor that's been sort of supporting this is the seeming resilience of the U.S. economy. And part of that's due to the fact that they are a net exporter of energy. So they're getting hurt by price impact of high oil prices.
So you've got a sort of a life affordability issue. But they don't have a supply problem. Now, their economy is cooling, but it still looks better than most other developed economies. And a key part of that, U.S. jobs market tonight. U.S. time, we've got the U.S. non-farm payrolls.
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Chapter 6: How does the government plan to address electricity costs?
It's a biggie. It speaks to the health of the economy. When you're up tomorrow morning having your short black and, I don't know, your croissant or your nuts or your raisins, I will be checking out the non-farm payrolls outcome. So putting it out there, expectations, I think, are quite modest. The secondary data has been okay. Jobless claims, we saw that overnight, Mike.
a little bit higher than the previous week, but it's trending lower. As you said, the ADP employment change, that was also positive. It all speaks to the view at the moment that the US economy seems to be reasonably resilient, and we'll see whether we get more evidence of that tonight.
numbers please so yeah we haven't quite got the resolution that markets thought we would get so and the oil price just is ticking up a little bit after falling earlier in the session the dow jones is down 254 points half a percent 49 659 the s p 500 It's down 27 points, 0.37%, 7,338. And the NASDAQ is down four points, so barely moved, 25,834. The FTSE 100 fell 161 points, 10,276.
But the Nikkei had an absolute stormer. It was up 3,338. Crazy stuff, isn't it? 21 points. Just over 5.5%. 62,833. The Chinese market up just under 0.5%. 4,180. The Aussies yesterday gained just under 1%. 8,878. Close there. The NZX 50 also just under 1%. Gain up 125 points. 13,270. Kiwi dollar.
0.5953 against the US, 0.8231 against the Aussie, 0.5067 euro, 0.4384 against the pound, 93.26 Japanese yen. Gold is trading at $4,708.
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Chapter 7: What are the main points from the week in review?
And Brent crude, as I said, as I look at it now, $100.51. Have a great weekend, mate. Shoran Partners, Andrew Callaghan. Food, McDonald's, Globally, same-store sales, all that stuff, they did okay. It was another one of those beats. They leaned into value, and people like value. Apparently, every time you go to McDonald's, you spend more money.
Restaurant Brands International, they topped expectations. Burger King's driving that. Popeye's is shrinking. So there's your fast food for you. 6.21 at Newstalk ZV. The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB. Our old mate Murray's with us after 8.30. A couple of big deals over the weekend in Australia.
Well, one big deal right now, but the Farah by-election, federal by-election. So this is the One Nation story. That's well worth following. Got a poll on that for you shortly, which is interesting reading to say the least. The other one is the ISIS brides or the ISIS women, the ISIS families. They came in last night to Sydney and Melbourne. I didn't know they're going multi-city.
Anyway, four women, nine children. A number of them were arrested. What happens now is the big, big political issue. So more later. 6.25. Trending now with Chemist Warehouse, the real house of fragrances. And the other one to watch this afternoon particularly, they've been at the Bella Boxers overnight, of course, in the UK. Government's going to get a pasting.
Chapter 8: How do international events influence local policies in New Zealand?
The Greens should do well in places like inner London. A lot of interest in whether the reform surge translates into council control. How many councils? So far today, visually, we've seen Farage beaming and posing, Badenoch smiling, Ed Davey looking happy, Keir, not so much.
So the rules around Election Day commentary, basically the same as this country, you don't say anything, which left the PM... saying nothing as this was shouted out to him. How are you feeling, Prime Minister? How are you feeling, Prime Minister? That's their music, not ours, by the way. Voting closes at nine this morning.
So the results, the easy results at about midday, but the tight stuff always goes well into the afternoon, which is overnight their time, of course. Reports coming out of Labour suggest members have been told not to cry on camera when the results come. Too funny. So what's the bigger deal? So the OECD report yesterday, we focused on the retirement thing.
I don't think the retirement thing's an issue. I mean, there's plenty of international agencies that all go around telling us how to run our retirement program. And we're not going to change it anyway. The real issue to my mind was the report that says electricity is no longer affordable in this country.
It is no longer cheap, which goes back to the article that if you haven't read it yet in The Herald this week with Richard Preble, you should read, where he talks about the difference between basic constraint and abundance. And what a country needs is power in abundance. Nothing wrong with renewable power, but it's not going to give us abundance because abundance leads to growth. And the OECD...
And this is the value of outside looking in. The OECD looks at the way we're doing this and we're not doing it right. And therefore, if we don't have abundance of power, we don't have growth. So we'll talk to Nicola Willis about this after seven o'clock this morning. In a noisy world, hear yourself think. It's the Mike Hosking Breakfast with Aveda Retirement Communities. Life your way.
Newstalk ZB. Still standing by on the Iranians to come back on the deal. One page, 14 points. Chinese heavily involved in this, so watch the space. Simon Marks with the update shortly. Meantime, back here at 23 to 7. We have, they claim, the biggest shake-up to conservation land management in 40 years coming. They're looking to speed up decisions, boost infrastructure. It's all linked to tourism.
Of course, Tama Potaka is the Minister of Conservation and is with us. Tama, morning. Kia ora, Mike. It's no claim. We're going to do it. You're going to do it. So you say in your press release, you use the words, and this is the first I've seen for a very long time in an official government press release, you use the words Lucy Goosey. Yes.
So why has it taken you two and a half years to get here? Why didn't you start on day one?
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