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Chapter 1: What does Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's new political party mean for the left bloc?
No fluff, just facts and fierce debate. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Defender. Embrace the impossible. News Talks at B. Morning and welcome. Today, the fuel plan will never use. The Maori MP who will vanish in front of your eyes. New insight into how big that bank of mum and dad is in the housing market. Shane Phelan, Westlife, in for a word for the 25th anniversary after eight.
Catherine Field in France. Rod is in the UK. And all my dreams will take me. Welcome to the day, seven past six. The Environment Select Committee has been looking at folding the Environment Ministry into a much larger super ministry, right?
Chapter 2: How significant is the Bank of Mum and Dad for first-home buyers?
So the committee has listened to a small bunch of submissions, most of whom didn't like the idea, obviously. They've concluded it should be merged and that the decision is due back into Parliament today. Now, this is a very good sign because one of the things that Singapore does well is not run the place with large swathes of government departments. Our cabinet is too large.
There are too many ministries. There are too many government workers. You know, I do wonder... If in their quiet moments the government doesn't regret that big promise they made during the last election, they were going to reshape the public sector. Remember all of that? Because what they promised and what they did, of course, were two very, very different things.
Public service had exploded under Labour into the high 60s. By that I mean 60,000. Actually, it's heading towards 70,000. They managed to cut two, as in thousand, and if you read the job ads these days, a lot of them to this day remain in what appears to be a public sector on a growth path. If any of that was leading us anywhere, maybe we could get on board, but clearly it isn't.
Chapter 3: What insights does Ed McKnight provide about the housing market?
The Labour and Green members of that select committee, by the way, they're of course ropeable, but sadly they're ropeable for the wrong reasons. because they mistake a minister and pencil pushers as somehow connected to the fresh air and walking tracks of the environment. See, I think most of us like the environment, but we don't need an army in Wellington overseeing it via emails and meetings.
Singapore has a handful of super ministry, and here's the thing about Singapore. You can't argue with it. Small island nation, 5 million people, they're booming. They're doing it right. Their model works. They are the envy of most small island nations, including ours. 43 government departments and ministries in this country. 43. In Singapore, 16. 81 portfolios in New Zealand. In Singapore, 16.
Who do you reckon has it right? Our theme this morning is things that aren't going anywhere. Example one, Kia Starmer. The election results last week. We're tough. Very tough.
We lost some brilliant Labour representatives.
Chapter 4: What are the implications of the Labour Party's current situation?
That hurts. And it should hurt. I get it.
And I take responsibility. He wasn't finished. The question whether if a government constantly changes its leadership, the question whether that damages the country is not an academic question. We tested it to destruction under the last government. A Labour government will never be forgiven if we repeat that. I think the results last Thursday were awful.
People in London and across the country voted in July 24 for change, and we're not seeing the change in sufficient scale that people voted for. I'm not somebody calling for a change in leadership, but I'm calling for a change in the pace of delivery. Also not going anywhere this morning is the Iran war peace deal, which pleases old Ben of Israel.
I think it accomplished a great deal, but it's not over because there's still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. There is still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. Now, we've degraded a lot of it, but all that is still there. Trump's full of bluster.
I say to them, I say, you people are crazy. I deal with them. They talk differently. I say, you're crazy. You're crazy people.
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Chapter 5: How is Shane Filan reflecting on Westlife's 25-year journey?
You're nuts. You're not having a nuclear weapon. They think they can talk me into it, and they don't do very well with it. He would have wanted all this sorted, of course, before China this week, which hasn't happened. I have a great relationship with President Xi. We're doing a lot of business, but it's smart business.
We used to be taken advantage of for years with our previous presidents, and now we're doing great with China. We make a lot of money with China. Look, I respect him a lot. And hopefully he respects me. Breaking news. It's gone to 59. See how fast it's moving. Finally, the bloke charged with attempted assassination at the White House Correspondents' Dinner a couple of weeks ago.
He's pled not guilty. There are four charges. His lawyers are trying, by the way, to get the attorney for D.C. Pirro off the case, along with A.G. Blanche off the case as well. So news of the world in 90.
Chapter 6: What challenges does the Labour Party face in the upcoming election?
One of the headlines which give you an indication of how much trouble Trump is in, Trump has snookered. Walking away may be the least worst option. Another headline, Trump heads to China weak and embarrassed.
Trump and the congressional Republicans are also floating this morning the possibility of killing the federal gas tax because she's creeping past $4.50 a gallon on average, so they know they are in big trouble. 12 past 6. The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio. Powered by Newstalk ZB.
The other thing Khan said was he needs to be bolder and braver and he should join or rejoin the EU. One thing Starmer did mention, by the way, he's nationalising or re-nationalising British steel. You remember the story from last year, that's Scunthorpe Steelworks, Chinese owned it, all turned to, you know, you know what. Anyway, so he's re-nationalised British steel.
More from Rod Little, of course, after 8.30 this morning. 15 past. I'm sure of partners, Andrew Callagher, good morning. Very good morning, Mike. China going to be a big talking point this week because, of course, Trump's on his way in a couple of days and so the world's focus is going to be on that. Where are they at?
Yeah, so in the absence of definitive information on the ceasefire and how exactly this conflict comes to an end, we do, Mike, have definitive data on some of the impacts. And the key one is inflation. And I want to talk about China inflation. So US CPI inflation, that's being released at our time tonight. We get our partial reads on Friday.
And in the US economy, although they're cooling, it still looks reasonably resilient. But sneaky old inflation could spoil the party. But we can certainly confirm that there are global inflation pressures when China actually records some inflation, in particular when what we sort of term business inflation or factory inflation, the technical term is PPI inflation.
Now, Mike, I've brought this up from time to time when we've been talking because the PPI inflation in China has been negative and it's been going down. They've had deflation for almost four years. I mean, it's really quite remarkable. It did tick up marginally positively in March, 0.5% on year-on-year basis.
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Chapter 7: What factors are contributing to the rise of Chinese cars in New Zealand?
But the latest numbers released yesterday and after this sort of remarkable run of deflation, we got a print-off 2.8%, which doesn't sound very much, but when you've had four years of it going down, it is fairly consequential. So... Consensus estimates were 1.8%, so it's well ahead of expectations.
So factory prices in China are now running at their highest rate of inflation since the COVID pandemic, pushing costs up. Importantly, it's putting profits in China under pressure. They're under pressure because the demand environment in China is still pretty soggy. The economy is still battling difficult property markets and relatively low levels of growth.
So they can't pass on these cost increases, or it's tricky to do it. And that's almost a global problem. CPI inflation came out as well, also surprised to the upside, 1.2%, which looks pretty benign, doesn't it, compared to what we think we're going to see in New Zealand and Australia. Look, the Middle East conflict is the problem.
Actual CPI inflation in China heading up despite the fact that they had a really big slump in food prices. And yeah, you're right, Mike, the timing of these sorts of announcements around the Chinese economy is important because of the big meeting this week between Trump and Xi Jinping, we'd expect some sort of announcements.
And look, one of the key factors behind these factory inflation going up is, Mike, is commodity prices. And that's what I was going to talk about. Exactly. So commodity. Well, good for us because we like commodity prices and we earn a bit of money from them. But of course, the flip side of that is the war and how it all flows through.
Yeah, so I'm on a bit of a roadshow, Mike, around the country over the next few weeks, getting out and about, talking to people. And we tend to be very focused on oil. That's the primary sort of impact of the Middle East conflict. But it's not the only one. And there's been a broad-based lift in commodity prices.
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Chapter 8: What role does the Bank of Mum and Dad play in home ownership?
So if I look at the Bloomberg commodity price, and it's a couple of days ago, it hit an all-time high, come back a little bit. But since the beginning of the year, it's up about 30%. Now, these are key inputs into manufacturing. In the last year, it's up over 40%. So outside of oil, you're talking about things like copper, soybeans, aluminium, zinc, nickel.
The thing is, Mike, when you talk to these manufacturers, and I've been out chatting to them, they're basically saying that we haven't necessarily seen the impact of this yet, because manufacturers in some cases still working through their existing cheaper inventory. But the thing is, this is a little bit like Game of Thrones. You know, winter is coming. These price hikes are coming.
It was evident in the recent ANZ business outlook. So it's another reason why I'm actually a little bit worried, Mike, about the fact that we now have this stalemate in the Middle East, because the stalemate will linger. And while it's lingering, that key sort of determinant of whether this thing is over or not, which is Are their ships moving through the strait?
Well, the fact of the matter is they aren't.
Yeah, no, they're not.
And that's why I think increasingly people are looking to China later this week that they may come up with something, but we'll see what happens. What are the numbers? So despite all this, share markets continue to sort of grind higher, which is a positive thing for everyone out there. The Dow Jones is up 113 points, 0.23%, 49,722. The S&P 500 up 0.4% overnight, 29.7427.
And the Nasdaq up 0.3%, 81 points, 26,328. The FTSE 100 overnight, ignoring the old political dramas, that was up 0.36%, 10,269. The Nikkei fell 295 points, just under 0.5%, 62,417. The Chinese market was up just over 1%, 4,225, the close there on the Shanghai Composite. The Aussies yesterday lost 0.49% on the ASX200, 42 points, 8701 that closed there.
The NZX50 up 35 points yesterday, 0.27%, 13,210. The Kiwi dollar stable overnight, 0.5966 against the US, 0.8222 against the Australian dollar, 0.5064 euros, 0.4372 against the pound, 93.72 Japanese yen. Gold, $4,725. And the Brent crude price, not really liking the fact that Trump said the ceasefire is on life support. It's sitting at $104.26. Have a good one. Andrew Keller, Hishaw and Partners.
Airbnb internationally. There's a couple of cancellations in there because of the war. This is globally speaking, of course, but they think the FIFA World Cup's going to go gangbusters for them. Revenue at $2.68 billion. Revenue's up 18%, so people still love the Airbnb. The Yealy, which is not a big name in this country, but it should be because they're on the west coast of the South Island.
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