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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Your trusted home for news, sport, entertainment, opinion and Mike. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Aveda Retirement Communities. Life your way. News Talk ZB. Morning and welcome today to Blockade on Oil Prices. New read on the economy as interest rates rise and the services sector falls. We've got the size of the illegal tobacco market bordering on being out of control here.
Captain Fielders in France, Rod Little, does the UK for us. So we're into it Tuesday morning, seven past six. Now, a couple of questions for you. Does the Orban loss in Hungary mean anything to the conservative movement that is spearheaded by Trump? See, not long ago, if you were in any way seen as close to or similar to Donald J., you had kudos.
Chapter 2: How will oil prices be impacted by the US blockade of Iranian ports?
You had standing, no shortage of electoral clout. Movements like One Nation and Reform have benefited and materially grown their votes. by being a bit like Trump, telling it like it is, no BS, straight up and down, right or wrong, black and white. There was, I guess still is, a constituency for that. Trump also made a big deal out of backing winners.
Trouble is in a remarkably short period of time, that magic appears now to have dried up.
Chapter 3: What insights does the report reveal about the illicit tobacco trade?
Obviously, individual events and circumstances shape any election, but the conservative side of the electoral equation does not have the heft it did only a short period of time ago. The fact Trump campaigned for Orban through Vance last week clearly changed nothing. But in Germany, if you're reading about Germany at the moment, the AFD will be contesting elections in Saxony later this year.
Looks like they stand a very good chance of winning. Now, is that the AFD specifically or unique German issues or a Trump like view of the world is still current in a place like Germany? As far as Trump himself goes, this year's been a disaster. Local elections have seen any number of Democratic flips in state races. The midterms are a real issue.
There seems more mileage now for political leaders around the world to distance themselves.
Chapter 4: How can New Zealand avoid the pitfalls of Australia's illicit tobacco issues?
I mean, Rod's told us any number of times that Starmer in Britain has played Trump well by avoiding him. I mean, yes, he gets lambasted for it, but Trump doesn't vote in Britain. Maloney, once seen as Europe's direct connection to Washington, is no longer close and openly antagonistic. Macron, of course, never a fan, amuses himself constantly these days backing him.
Certainly it's the war, which is in abeyance but has been a shambles, and the trade tariffs won't have helped either. When the Supreme Court tells you they're illegal and to start handing out refunds, the old reputation starts to take a hammering. See, the thing about Trumpism is it needs to be backed by results. You need to win. And he isn't winning.
And given he isn't, the air's gone out of the balloon. And poor old Auburn, who once might have got a Philip out of all of this, got a don't come Monday.
News of the world in 90 seconds.
And like pretty much any other day these days, you will find the Trumpster in the middle of it all. Firstly, the blockade.
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Chapter 5: What factors contribute to the success of Viva La Dirt League?
The throughput will be much lower, even with escort support, than it was prior to the commencement of this campaign. And so really, it won't totally address the challenge that we have. Then there is the post of Trump as Jesus. He described Pope Leo as weak and terrible in relation to crime and foreign policy.
He went even further, risking offending all Christians by posting what appeared to be a meme depicting himself as Jesus Christ.
Pope is having none of it. I have no fear at the end of the Trump administration, but I do believe in the rest of the gospel. Blessed are the peacemakers. The Post, by the way, has since been taken down amid the outrage and fury, with Trump arguing it was actually meant to be a doctor. He was supposed to be a doctor, so blame AI. Anyway, Starmer got out of the Middle East.
He's back home with travel stories. The world in which we live has utterly changed. It is more volatile and insecure than at any period in my lifetime. And we must rise to meet it calmly, but with strength. Have you ever met a more verbally vacuous operator than him?
Chapter 6: How does the current economic climate affect the services sector?
Also in Britain, yet another report. This one's into the Southport massacre. This was the nut of the children, the Taylor Swift party. Anyway, guess what? Sir Adrian has uncovered systematic failures across multiple public sector organisations. The recording and sharing of information was poor. None of the agencies involved had a full understanding of the risk that the perpetrator posed.
No kidding.
Chapter 7: What are the implications of rising interest rates on the economy?
New bloke in Hungary, by the way, is one, revelling in the wind, and two, not sure what to do about Orban and some of his dodgy dealings.
It's not the task of a prime minister, not a party leader's task to assess whether the other party president, former prime minister's place is in prison or not.
Finally, a new study on small talk suggests if you dislike small talk, it's actually a fear of starting the conversation as opposed to the conversation itself. So you're going to find this gem in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Those who engaged in small talk said they were reluctant at first, but brain images show they actually enjoyed it more than they let on.
Even when both participants said the topic's boring, the theory is that the engagement made it at least somewhat interesting. Anyway, that's news of the world, gripping or otherwise ignited. What can I tell you? Yeah, more bad news for Trump. Florida judge, federal judge is tossed out. You know that $10 billion he was suing Murdoch for? The bawdy birthday card. It was all tied up with Epstein.
So he sued Murdoch and the Wall Street Journal for $10 billion. Anyway, Judge Darren Gales not plausibly alleged that the defendants published the article with actual malice. And anyway, the point is Trump loses another one. 12 past six.
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Chapter 8: What are the latest developments in the global oil market?
The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio. Powered by Newstalk ZB. Richard was telling us yesterday about Eric Swalwell. He was one of the leading Democrats stunning or running for the California governor's job. A bunch of women have said a bunch of stuff anyway. Enough women have said enough stuff. He's now gone. He's withdrawn from the race. Fifteen past six.
Insurance partners, Andrew Callagher, good morning. Yeah, good morning, Mike. Services sector, it's starting to get a bit real. Looters do it. Yeah, a very large part of the economy, Mike, a large part of GDP. And after that good news on Friday that the manufacturing sector is still expanding, what's happening in services?
So this is the BNZ Business New Zealand Performance of Services Index for March and the services sector contracted in March. So it's fallen six points to 46.0. That, Mike, is a 10-month low and 6.6 points below or lower than the long-term average. So it's not good news. Let's look through the sectors.
The issue here really is sectors that are related to sort of discretionary spending, so hospitality, accommodation, recreational personal services. It's also the third consecutive months of decline in the index. And I think that sort of really stands out to me because we're all focusing on the Middle East conflict. But this index was weak before March. Yeah, it was already weak.
So, the Middle East conflict, they're clearly having an effect. If I look at the breakdown of the sub-indexes, and here's the rub, it's hitting the ones you don't want it to hit. Activity sales, very weak at 44.6. New orders, 45.7. They're the areas of key concern. Look, people are asked to make comments as well, and 69% of those comments are negative. What does it all mean, Mike?
Well, look, it's high frequency, so we look for trends. And as I say, in actual fact, the service sector has hardly looked buoyant for the last 12 months, really. A couple of lone months in expansion territory towards the end of last year. The composite index combined the PSI of the PMI on a GDP-weighted basis, 46.8. So that's contracting as well.
Suggests very weak economic ā oh, it's not very. I will not use that word. Suggests weak economic growth. Clearly, you know, the energy price shock has affected confidence. People are prioritising spending. Q1 growth will be lower than expected. But what we don't like to see is the momentum into Q2 will be weaker than expected as well.
It also means the employment market, which we'd really like to see recover, will sort of struggle to recover in this environment. So from an economic point of view, Mike, Middle East conflict hitting just when we didn't need a headwind. Now, this is why we need you here. So I'm reading about A2. So the demand appears to be there in China.
China's not through the straight upper moves, and yet they're blaming the war. So how do you square that circle? Yeah, it's all these second round effects, which is just not what you want to see. So what happened yesterday is A2 Milk, they've put out a guidance, a profit guidance. It's not The conflict here is not the only issue, but it's a contributing factor.
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