Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
No fluff, just facts and fierce debate. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Defender. Embrace the impossible.
News Talks at B. Good morning and welcome today. The budget and expectations will run you around a few sectors. Dr Anna Braman of the Reserve Bank and her nail-biting three-all tiebreaker cash rate vote yesterday. This mad Moana Pacifica mess that Winston Peters seems to be embroiled in. Lee Martin in for a song and a chat after eight. Joe McKenna in Rome.
Chapter 2: What are the expectations for Budget Day in New Zealand?
Rod Little is melting in Northern England. Welcome to the day. Seven past six.
Chapter 3: How did the Reserve Bank Governor justify the cash rate decision?
I tell you what, my only hope for the budget today is it reflects the times and the seriousness of the situation we found ourselves in as a country. There'll be the usual back and forth about who got what and what more was needed, but that merely reflects the pile of state we've sunk to.
An army-sized group of people whose only world view is what the government can do for them, how much more taxpayers' money should be paid here and...
shifted there the real story is what we don't have and what we don't have anymore is a lot of choice we have economically become increasingly constrained by our inability to actually cut our cloth to actually pay our way this government is to be credited if not congratulated on the selling of the message of frugality.
It's got the usual pushback, of course, but I'm increasingly convinced that at long, long last, a growing number of New Zealanders have finally got it. Doesn't mean we like it, but at last, we've got it. Large S with money that doesn't exist until you borrow it is no way to run a place, because when the bill comes due, it's ugly.
Chapter 4: What insights does Lee Martin share about her music journey?
So what I want to see, is it worth the return to annual surplus when they have forecast it, or even better, on an accelerated track. That should be this country's number one priority. Can we in a single year actually not spend more than we make? And if we can, when exactly is that?
The fact a broadly conservative government cannot balance the books is an indication that one, the mess they were left was ruinous, and two, quite possibly the fact they didn't go at it hard enough on day one when they had the political license to hoe in and get the joint sorted. Debt is forecast to be 48% of GDP.
It was 19% before COVID, and it was 19% after the GFC and after the Christchurch earthquake. There is a lot about this country that is good. Most of it is in rural or provincial New Zealand, and along with tech and tourism, we actually have a decent base of income generation, but it's the expense side of that equation that needs sorting, and badly. Fitch sees it.
The bond markets and their yields see it as the world is increasingly weighted down with debt. Small countries need to be resilient financially. We aren't. That's the message I want to hear today. When does the fiscal bleeding stop? And when do the numbers turn from red to black? And how are we doing it?
First, the U.S. is going to lift the sea blockade. Iran is going to allow restore the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz within a month. But the most important part is that Iran with Oman is in negotiations to exert their control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Well, the Trumpster is in his cabinet meeting, runs the usual one.
It looks like they want to just make a deal. I don't think they have a choice.
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Chapter 5: How does the New Zealand economy impact the healthcare sector?
They're just going back to the internet because they're getting clobbered. Their economy is in free fall. They thought they were going to outweigh me. We'll outweigh him. He's got the midterms. I don't care about the midterms.
Now, related matters, that comment might come back to bite him. Related matters as MAGA moved through the primaries has paid off again, this time in Texas where Paxton, the Trump acolyte, won.
When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't listen. Instead, he gave his complete and total endorsement. President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in politics.
He beat Cornyn, and by a lot, and will now face the Dems' Tallarico.
The most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate. For 50 years, mega donors and their puppet politicians like Ken Paxton have stolen from us. But that ends this year.
To Britain, where Keir Starmer's life just got a little bit harder after the ghost of PMs passed and the form of Tony Blair rolled into the Labour's crap debate.
You can have a different personality occupying number 10, but unless you have a policy agenda which makes sense of the way the world's changing, then you're not going to be any further forward as a country. And you'll find the country keeps shuffling the deck with prime ministers.
More with Rod later. Bernard, by the way, has weighed into that. He's not particularly happy about the comment time. Did Blair's voice sound a bit thin? A little bit thin? A little bit old? And also not happy are your British doctors, who for the 16th time, you heard me right, the 16th time are going on strike.
We would be willing to meet any time over the next week, over the next couple of weeks to try and avert action. It is not just about pay. Like I say, we are potentially going to see literally hundreds, if not thousands of doctors either leave the NHS because they don't feel valued.
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Chapter 6: What are the implications of the latest insolvency statistics?
We'll have to wait and see. All right, mate. Numbers. Dow Jones is up 204 points, 0.4%, 50,666. The S&P 500 down small, 7.7511. The NASDAQ, basically it's not changed, 26,657. Overnight, the FTSE 100, small rise, 14 points, 10,505. The Nikkei 64999 hardly moved. Shanghai Comsat, though, lost 1.25%, 4093. The Aussies yesterday gained 60 points on the 06-200-8717. That's a 0.69% rise.
Had a good day on the NZX yesterday, 1.21% up, 158 points, 13,228. Kiwi dollar, 0.5890 against the US, 0.8255 against the Aussie, 0.5067 euro. We're creeping towards 44.44 against the pound, 0.4387. Yeah, happy days. Against the yen, 93.97. Gold, 4,450. But the big mover overnight, Mike, the oil price. Blummets. Who would have thought? It's fallen, gosh, it's 4% or 5%. $95.06.
So maybe there is a deal there.
Love it. Nice to see you, mate. Catch up tomorrow. Andrew Keller here, sure, and partners.
Abercrombie & Fitch they got a beat so retail sales particularly in America are okay Dulux the company that makes Dulux hasn't the paint got a takeover bid there they've rejected it said they've scoffed at it in fact but nevertheless their shares went through the roof and I note overnight that Travis Kelsey ahead of his wedding has bought a stake in the Cleveland Guardians he loves the Cleveland Guardians because he comes from Cleveland everything that's good about Cleveland is the Guardians and so he's bought a slice of them and good luck to him 621 at Newstalk ZB
The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB.
Mike, nothing strange about Bremen's decision. Bentley's rules and procedure states that when the chair is required to use a casting vote, it should generally be to maintain the status quo. I fully accept that, Tony, but for those of us who have argued for transparency for years... I mean, how right have we turned out to be? I mean, yesterday, how gripping at three all plus a casting vote.
And you never would have known it. Under Raw, you never would have known it. And are we right or are we right? With the more information, the better off we are. You can't argue with it. Anyway, she's with us in about an hour's time. 6.25. Now, UFOs are a sort of a thing right now in the States, given the Trump administration's fascination with them.
Another batch of footage got released this week. Anyway, Spielberg, he's got Disclosure Day, whistleblower on the run from the government because he learns aliens exist and he wants to tell the world.
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Chapter 7: How is New Zealand addressing the challenges of homeschooling regulation?
But obviously, the OCR is not very efficient in that respect. But it still matters because it still affects the economy. It still affects inflation. So one thing that we do to see what is persistent and what is more temporary factors is that we look at what we call core inflation. So we take out the most volatile items because that tends to be a better predictor where inflation is heading.
It doesn't mean that I want to diminish the fact that those administrative prices have been really high and it's been pushing up inflation. But we need to look at that and we need to look at what is persistent in that and what is more temporary.
It's a fascinating time.
I appreciate yours very much, Dr Anna Broman, who is the Reserve Bank Governor, 7.45.
By the way, yesterday we were telling you about how the Iranians were sort of semi-celebrating the business of their internet being back. That was oversold. It's not really back. They're still calling it the filter net, and you still need a VPN. Netblocks say the restoration came on day 88, which would make it the longest nationwide internet shutdown in modern history.
A lot of you seem to like Dr. Anna. OMG, what a huge overdue, super welcome, breath of fresh air and common sense, especially after the previous arrogant, up-himself piece of nonsensical. There's a little bit I can't work out whether you love Anna or whether you just disliked Adrian so much that anyone who came after Adrian seemed like a breath of fresh air.
Thank God we finally got an intelligent person running the Reserve Bank. Mike, she's far more transparent than ever. Well, she's transparent. because she explains things very nicely and very clearly. I never really had a problem with Adrian on that front. He was articulate. He just didn't have a clue about the economy.
And also that overarching, I'm in charge and you don't get to know who voted what and no, you can't talk to those people. I mean, doesn't that seem like a different age now? I mean, especially after yesterday at three all plus a casting vote, aren't we a measurably better off knowing that than guessing and being in the dark?
she's good can't argue with it uh rb governor inspires some confidence refreshing change if you want to get in the weeds there was a question somebody asked yesterday they wanted to ask one of the externals a question and the answer worried me they've set up a system whereby anna braman's available you can ask the other two the internals if you want but the externals are kind of
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