The Mike Hosking Breakfast
Mike's Minute: How do you not have confidence in an event already sorted?
05 May 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the significance of the latest fuel crisis poll results?
Probably, in a year of wacky poll debate, we have this morning the maddest poll result of all. Horizon Research. They've either asked a leading or confusing question or they have a misrepresentative group of people. All the people who answer the question have other things in mind when they answer because the poll is about the fuel crisis.
Now, the fuel crisis, such as it is, has not actually been a crisis. Now, you might argue in price it has, but it's peaked and the fears of $200 a barrel never happen, never will. And they never came close. The major worry, which lasted mainly in the minds of the thick and the bewildered, was supply, of course. Would we run out of fuel? Now, that really would have been a crisis.
But here's your reality. We didn't run out.
Chapter 2: How do public perceptions of government management influence confidence?
We were never going to run out. And surely by now, with the myriad of updates on storage and tankers, it's abundantly clear we're going to be just fine.
And yet, here's your poll. 24% have no confidence at all in the government to manage... what they've already managed. 32%, not very much confidence. So collectively, 56% of people. How's it possible to say you don't have confidence in an event that's already been sorted?
Unless. And here is where the poll might be an example of something you need to be wary of closer to the election. By manage, do they mean, oh, the 56%, do they mean I wanted free money? I wanted tax off.
Chapter 3: What factors contribute to the perception of a fuel crisis?
I wanted a handout. I wanted a price cap. So we're not doing that to a larger extent than they did. Is that failing to manage a crisis? The poll does not tell us this, mainly because it didn't ask. Is the crisis about supply of petrol or the cost of petrol?
Chapter 4: How does the discussion reflect on the future of government accountability?
And if it's about the cost of petrol, you not only have to ask about that, you then presumably have to have a follow-up, like what sort of support did you actually want? How much would have been acceptable? See, we know from Australia... that they've handed out a fortune in freebies and people love them.
There was one poll here that did ask, would you like a handout even if it meant a smaller government tax take or a bigger debt pile? The vast majority of people said, oh, yes, please.
Chapter 5: What alternative support measures do citizens expect from the government?
So my view of this government handling of the so-called crisis is they've done an exemplary job and it's one that's been recognised globally. But I didn't want free money. If this poll truly represents the average New Zealand view of debt and the economy and political responsibility, then one, the government is toast, and two, we're on our way to third world status.