Chapter 1: What triggered the speculation about Wes Streeting's leadership ambitions?
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The messages I was getting back were basically saying, hold your nerve. We know what's going to happen.
I don't think it was that smart of maybe number 10 friends of Keir Starmer to say, oh, where's he's bottling it. He hasn't got what it takes. He's going to chicken out. He's going to do a runner. He ain't going to go through with it.
He is haunted by the idea. He's always wanted to be prime minister from when he was a young man. And he is haunted by the idea that this is his David Miliband moment. The crown is within his grasp that he only needs the courage to pluck up the will and the courage to grasp it. And it will be his.
Just on West Reading, is he still the health secretary? Can we just confirm that?
Again, I don't know. I'm in your studio answering your questions, Sarah.
That is my question.
Why don't you ask him? OK, but are you presuming he is? As I said, I don't know. I mean, I read a lot of speculation. I mean, if I asked you if Yvette Cooper was the Foreign Secretary, you'd say yes. Yeah, but I mean, this is not terribly productive use of our time.
It sounds like one of those questions a doctor asks when they're looking for early onset dementia. Do you know who the prime minister is? This occasion, it's the Northern Ireland Secretary answering a question about whether the Health Secretary is still the Health Secretary on the BBC this lunchtime.
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Chapter 2: How does the King's speech impact Keir Starmer's political standing?
The News Agents.
It's John. It's Maitlis. It's Lewis. And we are in a very unusual position that everyone expects now. West Reading, the health secretary, this question that has haunted British politics this week. is there going to be a challenge against Keir Starmer?
And it seems that West Streeting, the health secretary, has told allies that he is preparing to resign and trigger a leadership contest against Keir Starmer as soon as tomorrow. Hence the confusion of Hilary Benn and others as to whether West Streeting, as of this afternoon, is even still in his job.
Something that Downing Street shortly afterwards did clarify by saying that Keir Starmer, after that 16-minute meeting this morning yesterday, in Downing Street between the two men, Downing Street saying they have full confidence, or the Prime Minister has full confidence in West Streeting and all of his cabinet ministers.
This all taking place, as Emily said, bizarrely, extraordinarily, against the backdrop of the state opening of Parliament, where Westminster is in its finest ermine and silliest frocks, having to pretend as if none of this is happening as the King reads out a speech saying,
including 35 bills of things that this government under this prime minister intends to do, while simultaneously not knowing for sure whether this prime minister is going to be in Downing Street at the end of the week. And the big question on everyone's lips in parliament is, does West Streeting have the numbers, the 80 MPs he needs to resign and mount that challenge against Starmer?
Let's not forget that the positioning of the King's speech, which is at the behest of the Prime Minister, really spoke to his nervousness about what could happen this week. It was always meant to be a firewall, essentially, to stop any huge political shenanigans from happening. kicking off after those May elections. And to some extent it has worked because today things are just about holding.
What does that mean? Well, it means basically that nobody is swearing at the funeral, right? It's about as simple as that. When I was messaging people who were part of that 80 list who'd added their voices, their names to the critique of Keir Starmer, I did start asking whether they had been surprised that more hadn't happened yesterday, particularly if there were supporters of Wes Streeting.
Had they expected Wes to go over the top yesterday? And the messages I was getting back were basically saying. Hold your nerve. We know what's going to happen. We know it wasn't going to be today. And the sense, every indication has been we think there is more to come. This is a pause.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of Hilary Benn's comments on Wes Streeting?
This is a moment, silence. But tomorrow it all kicks off again. And I wonder whether... Actually, against the backdrop of the King's speech, which I think a lot of people both outside the party, outside government and within, feel was quite a timid response to those election results. It was more incrementalism.
it wasn't full-throated, it wasn't a kind of rip up everything and give the people something that they've been dying for. I think in a way it will embolden others to say, OK, that was the last chance. If that's basically what the legislative agenda looks like for the next year, then, yeah, maybe I'm out of here.
I think it was the most perfect split-screen moment today that you have... the king's carriage coming down Whitehall and the horse guards and everything else running perfectly to time and what it says is that Britain is this place of solidity, tradition, stability, consistency and the reality of the government is that it's anything but that.
It is febrile, it is uncertain, anything could happen in the next five minutes and it might well in the next five minutes while we're sitting here recording. And there was a moment this morning where people were starting to say, oh, well, he's over the worst of it. The stability is returning. There was almost a two hour window where people thought, oh, well, Starmer's in the clear now.
This is an ongoing problem that is not resolved. And I don't think it was that smart. of maybe number 10 friends of Keir Starmer to say, oh, where's he's bottling it? He hasn't got what it takes. He's going to chicken out. He's going to do a runner. He ain't going to go through with it. And what we've since heard is that, oh, yes, he is actually.
And he may well have the numbers and he is going to force a contest, which puts Starmer in the position whether he's going to run or not run. He said he will. And he said he will. But the psychodrama goes on.
So this is, as I said, the question that everyone is contemplating. Does Streeting have the numbers?
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Chapter 4: What are the potential consequences of the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner's investigation into Nigel Farage?
Does he have the 80? Now, on the face of it, from what I can gather talking to MPs, there's two schools of thought about this. On the face of it, it would seem pretty illogical if he didn't have the numbers. for him to wield the knife, because if he doesn't have the numbers, surely he's just going to resign and that's going then he's going to be in the wilderness and it will expose him.
It will make him look weak, not as a proper challenger. And it's certainly possible that, you know, we know that lots of the people have resigned have kind of been, quote unquote, his people. We know that a lot of the people calling for the PM to go have been his people.
And he definitely has other allies, ministerial allies, who haven't resigned yet, who, when push came to shove, I think would resign and would back him. So it's possible that he's got the 80. There is another school of thought I've heard, which included one person telling me he has lost the plot completely. This is an insane move.
And they think a bit, as you were just saying, John, that he has been, Streeting, he's been destabilised and driven to anger by all of this talk of bottling it, of looking like a coward. And Streeting, who is very alive, more than most cabinet ministers, to how he is perceived in the media, is therefore rolling the dice because he was aware there was a picture going around
Just as a vignette to sort of illustrate this, there was a picture going around, all the Labour MP WhatsApp groups were sent to me last night that had a picture of Newcastle brown bottles with Wes Streeting's face plastered over it, which is, you know, bottler Wes. And that he, this has got to him, that he's decided to roll the dice, that he's haunted by the idea.
He's always wanted to be prime minister. from when he was a young man. And he is haunted by the idea that this is his David Miliband moment, that the crown is within his grasp, that he only needs the courage to pluck up the will and the courage to grasp it, and it will be his.
Now, most people in the Labour Party believe that even if he does have the 80 and he gets through to the ballot of the members, that he will not be elected because they will not elect him because the politics of the Labour Party is not where he is, which is on the right of the party.
Look, I think it's worth saying that we obviously don't know what West Streeting is going to do tomorrow. And it is entirely possible that actually, as of yesterday, he didn't know either. So maybe he was goaded. Maybe. I mean, we know that people around him resigned and there is something of the kind of like.
you know, if your PPS has resigned, if another health minister has resigned, if your allies have resigned, it's a bit like sort of being the fourth parachutist out of the aircraft and say, yeah, you go, I'm right behind you. You know, you jump, I'll be fine. I'll be right behind you. And then they're looking back and going, wait, why is he still in the aircraft? Like, what is he doing?
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Chapter 5: How does Wes Streeting's situation reflect on Keir Starmer's leadership?
If people around you have gone, is he thinking, well, you know, I can't be the one that watches them fall and maybe sort of slightly crash to the ground. Yeah, so you're... That doesn't help my analogy, but yes. He's both marched and pushed. But essentially, there is probably a bit of him thinking, I've kind of... I've got to this point now and they've gone ahead of me, so I've got to do this.
I think there's also a point, you know, when you see Andy Burnham arriving at Euston saying, I think I've got my seat, you know, I think I've got my by-election to fight... maybe to our
point yesterday about your you know you choose your own adventure maybe where streeting's going i've probably i've probably got 48 hours to get this off the ground now look your your parachutist analogy is a good one because i i think that's probably exactly what he's doing he's seeing what the reaction is to those resignations and seeing whether people are kind of ringing him up or whatsapping him and saying you're absolutely right i'm behind you i mean you quoted lbj on the podcast yesterday and the kind of rule number one of politics of lbj has learned to count
Actually, I quoted Roosevelt's FDR, which is do something. But the LBJ one is the next one.
Right, OK. Learn how to count. Learn how to count. Sorry, I mistook.
You're mixing up your presence.
I misheard on the Eurostar coming back from wherever I was coming back from. And I think that that is... you know, surely he must know whether he's got the numbers. And then, presumably, he must... I mean, I know this is a dynamic process, so there are no kind of 100% guarantees, and people are duplicitous.
And so, you know, it's perfectly possible that MPs are not being straightforward when they say, oh, Wes, I absolutely... Or they don't know either.
There's so many newbies coming in, right? They're probably thinking, shit, I think so, but I don't know. I mean, I've also been hearing, I have to say... from people who contacted me because they said that their names had been added to the other list, as in the Keir supporter list, when they hadn't put them on. Now, we know about Rupert Hark, right? She sort of tweeted quite...
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Chapter 6: What strategies are being considered by Labour MPs regarding the leadership contest?
Well, it seems it seems that an awful lot of MPs are holding their breath right now that they you know, if you think of the people that have signed and said, right, you've got to go. And then you've got the payroll vote, which is all the ministers and
cabinet ministers and parliamentary private secretaries you know that's about 80 or 90 people there are an awful lot of people who've not said one thing nor the other and I think it does leave Starmer in this position now where he is too strong to die but too weak to thrive too weak to govern too weak to be able to do anything and so this Labour does seem to have managed to get itself into
into the worst of all possible positions right now, where you cannot see an easy, clean...
way out of this i think that said if if streeting does have the numbers i think it's impossible to really imagine how starmer survives no i agree because although i mean but that would mean okay so that would mean people that hadn't yet signed their name because of that 81 we know that not all of those people are streeting people so he has got to have a whole bulk that haven't yet signed up that he knows are for him well start well i mean in the event of a contest of course um starmer
And we should talk about the rules for this maybe a bit, which is that, you know, Starmer automatically goes on the ballot as the leader if he wants to contest. And doesn't need numbers. But just in terms of the parliamentary support Starmer has, I mean, or might not have. I mean, John, you talk about the 80 or 90 or so have come forward to say he's got to go.
Got to remember as well, there are a lot of Labour MPs who have not said anything publicly, but have said something to the whips. I mean, I was talking to one last night who told me this. He said, I let my whip know. Yesterday, there are a lot of us in this position. I believe the PM should resign.
We want him to understand the mood of the parliamentary party and go with dignity who want to maximise the ability of the Labour Party to come together after this. The PM's reputation is being damaged by his refusal to accept political realities. So in the event, of course. that there is a contest.
And what happens is the rules are that you have to have 80 MPs come forward to challenge Starmer, at which point there will be a contest within the Labour Party. Starmer, if he wants to fight it, will automatically be on the ballot. That's what happened when it's kind of the Jeremy Corbyn precedent when he was challenged in 2016 by his own MPs. He automatically goes on the ballot.
So theoretically, and Starmer has said he will do this, He says that he will put himself forward. Now, I think in that scenario, I think it will become very clear from those sorts of MPs I've just talked about, they will go public and say, Prime Minister, do not stand in this election. And not just Labour MPs. I mean, it's something I think that has kind of been...
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Chapter 7: What role could Ed Miliband play in the potential leadership contest?
And it means that basically Starmer will not have a majority on the NEC, the ruling body of the Labour Party anymore because the unions are so represented. His power within the party, he kind of looks a bit stronger today on the surface, but he's not. It is ebbing and ebbing and ebbing away.
I think we're very close to what happened with the Thatcher leadership when she faced the challenge and she was two votes short of winning outright. And so there would have to be another contest. And what happened then was and I think this is what happens if West Streeting gets the numbers.
The cabinet on day one, you know, came out that mad scene, those mad scenes yesterday of people rushing to the microphone, West Street scurrying up Downing Street. But, you know, and you played it on the podcast yesterday of, you know, them all coming out to say, oh, well, yeah, we've got Keir's back and we love Keir.
I think that if there is properly a challenge and it's going to happen, that is the moment when the cabinet go in one by one to see Keir and say, I'm sorry, we wanted to support you. We did support you. But now we're in a position where the game is up, which is exactly what happened with Thatcher when all these ministers went in one by one to say, I'm sorry, Margaret, you can't carry on.
You don't have the support to do that.
And I think that's what would happen then. Currently, the Cabinet, or at least some of it's in the tea room, we're just hearing from Lucy McDade at Sky News that Rachel Reeves is in Parliament of the Commons members' tea room trying to persuade them from not backing Wes. In other words, this is a leadership battle that's already on.
And I know there'll be people listening to this podcast, this episode now and saying, why are you getting ahead of yourselves? Like nothing has happened. Wes Streeting went in to have a 15-minute coffee with Keir Starmer. And since then, we've heard nothing. Please don't jump the gun.
But I would have to say, as I think we tried to say yesterday, this is not happening because the media is sort of frothing at the mouth. It is happening around us, whether or not, you know, you want to hear about this. And it sounds as if Rachel Reeves right now realises that her part to play, certainly if she wants to stay as Chancellor...
is in persuading people around her not to back the health secretary, who, as we discussed earlier, may or may not be the health secretary this time tomorrow.
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Chapter 8: How does the conversation about leadership reflect broader issues within the Labour Party?
He's not in parliament. Therefore, the big question becomes where Streeting is representing the right of the party. Let's also assume that Starmer wants to stand but struggles to have legitimacy to do so. What happens to the soft left of the party? Who is representing the soft left of the party, which is the bulk or at least, you know, a lot of Labour MPs?
The natural answer would be Angela Rayner. Does she stand in that contest? Now, there are lots of schools of opinion on that, about whether she even wants to do it. The HMRC issue is not resolved, but there are other potential reasons she might not want to as well. And there are some people around her who I think don't want her to do it, but want her to be a big part of the next government.
If she does not stand... The name on everyone's lips in terms of representing standing for the soft left of the party is Ed Miliband. And I do think that the scenario we're seeing play out is a scenario that has been being muttered about for a long time now and whispered about. which is the Ed Miliband scenario, which is the Ed Miliband who does not want to actually be leader, I think, again.
I think he would dearly like to be chancellor, possibly in a Burnham government. Who knows? But in a situation where he felt where Streeting was going to stand, the impression I get from talking to MPs is that he would feel that he could not and would not risk, Wes Streeting is a guy who does not like Miliband, the right of the party.
He would not risk a Streeting victory and would therefore potentially stand. And if he were to stand, this might strike some viewers and listeners as weird, considering, of course, he lost the 2015 election and so on. he is deeply popular among Labour Party members who would be the ones who would be voting.
So if this is a scenario we're seeing playing out and you're out there wishing, if you were a 2015 voter wishing that Ed Miliband had become Prime Minister, this is the scenario which is most likely to yield Ed Miliband as Prime Minister of this country.
So are there other candidates who can emerge? Because if it's 80 to get on the ballot and there are 400 Labour MPs, John Sopel's maths is just about capable to work out that there could be five potential candidates. Well, Keir actually doesn't have to get 80, so he could just stand there. Yeah, it could be six if they were evenly distributed. I mean, of course, they won't be.
But I just wonder, is there anyone else who, you know, because there will be people who will take against the idea.
Can I just say one thing? I mean, you know, You don't have to be that old or have that long a memory to go back to Ed Miliband winning the Labour leadership against his brother, David, and others, and Burnham, in fact, and then going on to, you know, fail the election against, to lose the election to David Cameron.
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