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Chapter 1: What are the implications of the Makerfield by-election?
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In 24 hours time, in Makerfield, potentially the entire fate of the rest of the Parliament will be determined. You've got Burnham, he's got the wind in his sails at the moment, and so he's not terribly interested in being told by Keir Starmer, just be patient.
Feels to me like you've got a police van outside with a loud hailer saying, come out with your hands up, and you've got Keir Starmer inside number 10 saying, you're going to have to come and get me. Westminster consensus kind of moved to say, Burnham's got this in the bag. I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team. And I think they're right not to be confident.
Would you bring Burnham back into your cabinet? Oh, and he's a great asset. And yes, I want him to have a big role in government.
Are you going to call him at the weekend and invite him back into your cabinet?
Well, I'm sure I'll talk to Andy after the weekend. Of course I will. I've spoken to him many times in recent weeks. And when I came into politics in 2015, it was Andy Burnham's team that I joined and we worked very well together. He's a huge asset. He's been a fantastic mayor in Manchester. And if he comes back into Parliament, I hope he wins in the by-election.
That's the Prime Minister speaking to Sky News. And you can hear there a political leader in the most uncomfortable place for a political leader to be. He knows that his fate is no longer his own. It isn't being decided in Evian, where he is at the G7 summit, and it won't be decided in Westminster.
Instead, everything hinges on what happens here in the next 24 hours, here being Makerfield in the North West, and whether Andy Burnham will be returning to Parliament and returning to challenge his leadership. Welcome to The News Agents.
The News Agents.
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Chapter 2: How does Andy Burnham's candidacy impact Labour's future?
This is very high up on the reform target list. I think it's in their top 20 or so of their targets. It only requires a swing of 5, 6, 7% or so if, in circumstances where Andy Burnham is able to overcome the fact
that the Labour Party is in the doldrums and still win in this most inauspicious and difficult terrain, then he will have proof of concept to the parliamentary Labour Party to go to them and say, look, I am your saviour and give him what he hopes and thinks the momentum he needs to seize the crown from Keir Starmer.
Yeah, that is so interesting because it's clear that in number 10, they're trying to play for time. They're trying to say, look, the most important thing after this by-election, Andy, if you win, is that we win the Manchester mayoralty, which you will have to resign. So, Andy, we want you to focus on that.
And maybe then, Andy, there'll be a cabinet job for you and you can come in and we'll embrace you. And you don't want to rush these things because you're not ready to be prime minister. They're calling it a steeplechase strategy. Exactly. Keep jumping those fences, Andy. What it feels to me like is you've got a police van outside with a loud hailer saying, come out with your hands up.
And you've got Keir Starmer inside number 10 saying, you're going to have to come and get me. And that seems to be the Starmer strategy right now. No, I'm not going anywhere. No, I've got a campaign team that's up and ready. I've got a bank account set up. We've got a campaign manager. I ain't going anywhere. And he's going to try and make things as difficult as he can.
Against that, you've got Burnham, who, as you say, Lewis,
he's got momentum he's got the wind in his sails at the moment and presumably this is the moment and so he's not terribly interested in being told by keir starmer just be patient we can work this out over the long term and that is the dynamic and into which of course you've got west streeting saying you know i'm prepared i'm prepared to give the prime minister some breathing space you've got the weekend to think about it but after that you've got to announce the time of your departure yes we've basically had it over the last 24 hours we've had um the three it seems to me really important or
players in what is to come over the course of the next week, or three of the most important players anyway. Burnham has been silenced. He's basically not been doing any interviews since he didn't appear to remember what the fiscal rules were with the BBC. Partly, I think it's a bit of a silly question, but there we go. You know, I think his team decided that they wanted to pull back after that.
So we've really heard very little from him. He's been focusing on the by-election here and speaking to voters. That's what his team has been briefing. Starmer, the prime minister, very interesting, I think, that interview at the G7 conference, because he did move a little bit.
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Chapter 3: What do Makerfield voters want from their representatives?
So previously, when he's been asked, will you fight the next election or not? He has said yes, unreservedly, without qualification. Yes. In that interview, he said he wants to. That was him saying to Burnham's team, that you don't have all of the cards.
This might have to be a negotiated settlement in order to ensure that this doesn't end up in a sort of fit of bloodlust within the Labour Party and toxin and poison then fuses within the Labour Party and you have a bloody acrimonious contest throughout the course of the next couple of months.
And then on the other hand, as well, you have West Streeting also playing his own particular game, as you say, John, saying that if the prime minister doesn't come to his senses this time next week, then come what may, he will trigger a contest. He presumably is still trying to magnify and amplify his own power and his own sense of being in this as best he can.
I think what's so interesting about this by-election is that you frame it in its historical context and you know I can't think of any by-election in my lifetime where so much has been riding on it because you know effectively you could be deciding who the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is and we've never had a by-election of that importance before and so you have got the most massive interest
in the candidates in this by-election. And what they're doing in public is in inverse proportion to the amount of interest there is. You've hardly seen Andy Burnham doing interviews. As you have said, he's kept his media appearances to the bare minimum. Rob Kenyon, the reform candidate, who is the main challenger, has been on Question Time, but that didn't go so well for him.
And they clearly... It's not entirely surprising they've limited his media appearances. No, not at all. But what you've got is that you've got both camps trying to protect their candidates because with Andy Burnham, he's not being asked about what you're going to do for Makerfield.
He's being asked about what you're going to do for the country and when you become prime minister and if you become prime minister and how you're going to challenge it. And you've got Kenyon who... let's be honest about it, isn't the sharpest tool in the box and has said some pretty unsavoury things in his past and doesn't want to be questioned.
So you've got both candidates being shielded to some extent. And it's interesting talking to people here in Makerfield. We went to the Labour Club where they were kind of organising mass canvassing today. One, I was struck by the fact that there isn't that much confidence around. And two, how many people are coming in from all over the country to be part of this?
This is a group of people who'd come down from Cumbria, and this was their third or fourth visit to make a field.
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Chapter 4: Why are Labour supporters feeling nervous ahead of the vote?
Of course we shouldn't be. You can't take... people's opinions and voters for granted. We're not going to do that. But hopefully Andy will win and deliver real change. That's what we need.
We've just got to respect the people and it's the people of Makerfield that will make the difference.
Are you more confident about Andy Burnham winning or England winning tonight? Both results will be tied but they're both wins.
I agree. I agree.
You know, we are quietly confident, but we're not taking anything for granted, just like England. Come on, Andy. Thank you. It's interesting talking to Labour people, but also people just this morning over the last 24 hours, you know, senior in Burnham's campaign.
They're feeling, and look, I preface this by saying there's always a bit of expectations management with this stuff when they're talking to journalists. But I don't think they're completely flanneling me when they're trying to get across that they're far less confident than the received wisdom has become.
It feels like over the last five days, week or so, the kind of Westminster consensus herd has kind of moved to say, Burnham's got this in the bag. Yeah, I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team. And I think they're right not to be confident.
I think we're getting a bit or we have been a bit in the sort of Westminster, the lobby have been a bit sort of overruled by two things. One is we see these constituency polls which show that Burnham is ahead. Constituency polling is very difficult to do. It's often on small samples. The margin of error is massive.
Even then, it doesn't show Burnham so far ahead as to be outside often that margin of error. And I also think that Burnham's own personal star power, which is significant. And as you say, John, let's be clear, if it were anybody else in this campaign, any other Labour person, we wouldn't even be here because it would be a foregone conclusion.
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Chapter 5: What strategies are being employed by Burnham's campaign team?
Yeah, I think that's absolutely spot on. I was talking to one of the Labour organisers this morning, and he was saying that in the Gorton and Denton by-election a few months ago, on the day of polling, Labour had 1,000 people knocking on doors, making sure that people were going out to vote. And he says, this time it will be even bigger. I mean, the resource that is being thrown in.
Someone told me that the labor machine, which is, as you say, been invested entirely in his constituency for purposes of this thing, they have knocked on every door in his constituency six times. Six times. It doesn't mean everyone always answered, but they have knocked on every door in the constituency six times. And that's just the labor part.
In fact, one guy said, a bit of bad language, just as a warning. One guy was telling me, he was like, That sounds like you to give us a warning. Well, I've learned from the best. He basically knocked on some guy's door, and he turned to him, and he's like, look, I've told you, I'm voting for you. Please just fuck off, because otherwise, if you knock on my door once more, I won't be. Poor people.
Look, just as we were walking here, I just saw this guy putting stuff in his rubbish bin, and he wouldn't go on camera, but we've recorded his voice about what he thought was going on. This gentleman has just opened up his wheelie bin and it's full of election leaflets ahead of the by-election. Are you fed up with it? I am indeed. That's 16 at the last count. One this morning makes it up to 17.
And it's just been non-stop, has it? Every day.
knocking on your door as well knocking on my door as well yeah and you you obviously don't want to show your face because you you know you've got a job and you don't want to see it but this is crazy isn't it it's just over overwhelming it is i can't believe they talk about saving the planet and the paper and the trees etc and i've got literally a tree in my bin i'm sure the people
around here will be absolutely relieved when we bugger off out of it and the place comes back to being a place free of politicians, free of canvassers and free of journalists like you and me, because there are an awful lot of people who have descended on Makerfield to be part of this.
We spoke to the guy who's the commercial manager of Ashton Town Football Club, who's kind enough to let us film here, Mark Cowley. And he was telling us that actually, you know, this election would have been so different if it had just been an ordinary Labour candidate running. So, Mark, have you had the whole media circus around here over the last four weeks?
Everybody, yes. Everybody. Everybody? Yes.
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Chapter 6: How are voters reacting to the candidates' media presence?
That's not a political bias for me. It's just my thoughts. I think Labour may just win.
Well, let me ask the other question then. What happens if it hadn't been Andy Burnham standing and it had just been some nobody or local council or whatever?
Well, the recent council elections, there was 26 wards in the area and reform 125. And the only one that didn't win was a local independent who basically builds his own little area like a little hero. So Labour was nowhere. And I think it probably would have been the same.
And you talk to loads of businesses and people here every week. What do they think of brand labor? So leaving a burn amount out of it, what do they think of labor, do you think?
They think what I think. I'm a local businessman, and I think the economy is completely flat. People aren't spending. The pensions are sitting on the money. All the young ones are trying to spend. and it has that feeling I've discussed that today at work that we have that feeling that we're stumbling along and I as a businessman don't want to stumble along really for another two or three years.
Mark can you explain to me the impact of
of burnham because i mean look here you are ashton town football club um if andy burnham becomes the mp becomes the prime minister this is his local football club presumably that has an impact and people are thinking well this could be huge yeah of course it could andy has played here um and he he says he's a sport of action in town he's played here many times
He only lives up the road in Goulburn and hopefully if he does become Prime Minister he will support his local football club because he's a big football supporter. So yeah, that's what everybody hopes. And do you think that has an effect on how people are going to vote? I don't think it would have an effect on Ashton Town. People won't think of Ashton Town.
I think people in Ashton may just think that if it becomes Prime Minister, then it may benefit Ashton, yes. I think that would sway a few people's votes, not mine particularly, but I think it would sway a few people, yes.
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Chapter 7: What concerns do voters have about Andy Burnham as Prime Minister?
No one's heard of us before. no one's heard a wig in Adelaide, no one's heard a wig in, and all of a sudden, but people don't know who to complain to.
So although on one level you'll be pleased when this is all over and people like us disappear and, you know, life goes back to normal, it has had an effect in terms of, you know, making people aware, not just about Makerfield and Ashton, but also about the fact that people feel They're fed up with the two main parties. They're fed up of not being listened to.
Yeah, definitely. People are fed up, as I just said. People are fed up. It's a process vote. That's what reform is. And Farage is tapping into it nicely and saying the right things. And people want to listen, stop the votes, etc. People want to hear things like that. And it has that effect on the vote, as it did in the local elections.
Okay, Mark, great to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed.
Thanks, Mark.
I think what Mark said there is a really interesting point. I think there's been a lot of, I think sometimes slightly patronising commentary from some of the Westminster press, basically saying that make a field, you know, local people always want local politicians. And actually, people are way smarter. You know, what Mark was saying there is completely right.
People, as they say in America, you know, they can smell pork, a bit of pork barrel politics, which might be coming their way. I.e., you know what? Having the prime minister as your local MP, particularly, by the way, this will still most certainly be a very marginal seat.
You know, we will have a prime minister with an unusually marginal seat who would have to be thinking about how do I retain my own seat in a general election? Probably does mean that I think Makerfield would not be...
the old government investment projects, the odds, the odd, the odd pot of funding, the odd, perhaps new stand here at Ashton, you know, the Andy Burnham stand just to just like 60 foot high. I think, you know, really get this football club going. Don't think that that's Well, I think people are smart enough to be completely alive to that.
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Chapter 8: What do focus groups reveal about the political climate in Makerfield?
I'm Art Tucker, a reform councillor for Bolton.
Yeah, and? I'm Trevor Jones. I'm the leader for reform in Bolton Council.
Right. Just newly elected. Well, congratulations on being elected, and you're here with your bus, because you're... I'm the reform bus driver, yeah.
The reform bus driver. And I have been for the last four years.
It's all glamour at the top of local government, isn't it?
uh yeah the bus it's a fantastic machine it's it's promoted reform no end all over the country and it's also promoting me you know a lot of people know me because of the bus in fact most people put me first they say oh it's the bus driver they don't mention that i'm the leader of the council for reform and a councillor and the chairman of bolton they don't mention that stuff they mention the bus driver right so what's going to happen tomorrow
It's going to be close. I think we can just pip it. I hope we do, because there's a lot of effort gone in. A lot of effort would reform it here. You know, signage-wise, we've got a lot more signs up than anybody else. I just hope there's no damage done by other parties. I'll be honest, you know.
What do you mean by that? Why restore?
Oh, yeah, we've got to win this. We need to win it, because the last thing we need is Andy Burnham getting back in politics at this level. Because, you know, we'd... From a party's point of view, it would be easy getting rid of Starmer than him. He's better, isn't he? Well, you'd be afraid of Burnham?
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