How the GOP plans to fight an anti-incumbent wave
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The midterms are coming, and if you think the news cycle feels intense now, just wait until the fall. That's why summer is a perfect time to make sure your news diet is calibrated. I'm Ian Martinez. On Up First, we unpack the three biggest stories every morning so you can stay informed and get on with your day in fewer than 15 minutes. Follow or subscribe to Up First today wherever you get podcasts.
There's a nearly unbroken historical pattern. The president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections. President Trump's historically low approval rating isn't helping Republicans on the ballot, but he and his party have worked hard to lock in some structural advantages. It's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics.
I'm Eric McDaniel. I cover Congress.
And I'm Sage Miller. I also cover politics.
OK, so we have talked about this on the podcast several times before. There is a massive anti-incumbent mood in the country this election cycle. It is thought to favor Democrats. So, Eric, in competitive districts, what is the message to voters from Republicans, you know, given that voters are so unhappy with the direction of the country?
Yeah, I mean, it's not going to surprise you that, like you've talked about many times on the podcast before, the message does focus on the economy, but it focuses on what is either the Working Families Tax Cut Act or the One Big Beautiful Bill, depending on who you ask. It's the same piece of legislation.
Yes, it is the same thing.
Yeah, this is President Trump's signature domestic policy legislation that they passed through Congress last year via reconciliation. That was a huge tax cut bill.
How are Republicans framing their midterm message amid low presidential approval?
Outside analysis would suggest that huge benefits from that tax cut bill went to corporations and the wealthy. But there were also some things like no tax on tips, a tax break on Social Security benefits that. are appealing, I would say, to American taxpayers. And so Republicans are trying to message on that bill. I talked to Bernadette Breslin. She's the national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee about what Senate candidates are talking about around the country. And here's what she said.
President Trump and Senate Republicans have delivered lower drug prices, a secure border, new jobs and lower taxes. And our candidates continue to speak with voters across battleground states who have shared how Republicans working families tax cuts, for instance, have positively impacted their lives through no taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security.
So, yeah, a tough environment. But the message is is pretty consistent and maybe unsurprising.
And Sage, you've been out talking to voters and seeing candidates in action. What are you seeing?
Oh, definitely from candidates. They're really trying to position themselves in different camps almost within the Republican Party itself. There's an open house seat in Washington's fourth congressional district because Representative Dan Newhouse, one of the only Republicans in Congress that voted to impeach Donald Trump, announced that he is not running for reelection. So now there is this hot primary race to try and figure out who his replacement is going to be. You've got the Trump endorsed candidate who's also trying to position herself as, you know, things aren't super great right now. And while I will prosper Donald Trump's agenda on the Hill, I also will break with my party when necessary.
Then you have the anti-establishment, total political outsider who is really using it to his advantage that he's never going been a elected official before saying that he understands where people are coming from. He understands how people are getting ripped off and why people are so mad. And it's because of the establishment. But then you also have a moderate candidate who is a member of the state legislature who is not trying to really brand himself as the establishment, but just trying to put civility back into politics. They're all trying to like step away from this idea of being in the establishment by drawing out parts of themselves that they believe will resonate with voters while also still being mad at the establishment, despite their party being the establishment.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–1:38
2
How are Republicans framing their midterm message amid low presidential approval?
1:38–6:08
3
What specific components of the Working Families Tax Cut are GOP candidates emphasizing?
6:08–13:38
4
How are Republican primary candidates positioning themselves between 'outsider' and 'establishment'?
13:38–20:37