Chapter 1: What are the current tensions within the MAGA coalition?
This week on Up First, with the president threatening to target Iran's civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, even as gas prices in the U.S. continue to climb, what are the chances of an end to the war in Iran? Listen for updates every morning on the latest overnight news on Up First. Find us on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Hey there, it's the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Tamara Keith. I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore. I also cover politics.
And I'm Domenico Montanaro, senior political editor and correspondent.
And a happy Friday to you and yours. On today's show, we want to look at political divisions, specifically how the broad coalition that President Trump assembled to win reelection is starting to fray. It comes to as the president is seeing his approval rating continue to fall.
Elena, this week you've been reporting on some pretty strong pushback from people who used to be some of the loudest, most vocal supporters of President Trump. Media figures like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly are mad about the president's handling of the war in Iran.
So what are you seeing there? Yeah, these are people, obviously, that you might have first seen on Fox News or network television of some sort. And they've gone from TV stars to podcast stars in recent years and just, you know, very overtly partisan figures. They campaigned with President Trump in 2024. Tucker Carlson spoke at the RNC, the Republican National Convention.
And they've started to break with Trump over the war over the last few weeks and criticize the actual act of going to war. There's been a lot of discourse about U.S.-Israel relations. But the difference right now in this week was the direct attention that they put on President Trump. There was no beating around the bush. They were mad and frustrated at him.
And a lot of this stems from a couple of really stunning social media posts. One on Easter Sunday said, that said open the expletive straight. And then there was another one where he threatened to completely wipe out Iranian civilization.
Right. He said, quote, whole civilization will die tonight, end quote. And so, yeah, Megyn Kelly in her podcast after that tweet, before the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday, said this on her show.
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Chapter 2: How are media figures reacting to Trump's handling of the Iran war?
I'm not sure. This is overtly people disagreeing with him. And we should say Tuesday, obviously, we found out there was going to be a two-week ceasefire. We have since heard some of these figures tamp down their criticism again directly of the president and go back to that just like criticism of the war. But those comments are what they are. And these people know how to make a viral moment.
Well, I mean, this was a president who promised to fix prices and stay out of wars. And there are two types of people when it comes to how they vote in politics. You're either kind of on board with a person or personality, or you want somebody to enact the kinds of things you want to see done in the world. And there's always obviously some crossover and mixing between those two things.
But when you're high profile influencer types like Megan Kelly and Tucker Carlson, who are on the conservative side, former Fox News hosts, they are people who follow this every day and who I think believed in a certain kind of direction that Trump was taking the country, not necessarily how Trump puts it, that he is MAGA.
Now, that does not mean that this fraying we're seeing with these high profile people is filtering down to the rank and file, because most people in the rank and file and Trump's base believe in Trump and they will continue to do so. And in fact, the people who are self-described, quote unquote, MAGA.
in polling are higher in approving of the job Trump is doing, are higher in believing that the war in Iran was the right decision in the polling that we've looked at so far. So it's complicated. I will say that this kind of anecdotal irritation and anger that you might be hearing from some portions can be a lagging indicator in the polling and not show up quite yet, but also
lend itself to more of a softening among the base that may have the biggest ramifications in the midterm elections of a lot of the people in Trump's base just simply not going to the polls.
Right, because at the end of the day, it's an enthusiasm thing, right? I mean, I've been talking to voters out at different conservative events over the last month, and you hear them say, even if they don't agree with the criticism, they're like, oh, we know there's a lot of fighting. Like, it's a narrative. And I think it's also important to note that people like Carlson and Kelly
First of all, these are not fringe corners of the Internet. They host some of the biggest podcasts in the country. Not just the conservative country. Yes, yes. The United States. And to put a finer point on it, you know, Edison Podcast Metrics has data that finds that each of them average a weekly reach of more than 1.6 million. They're in the top 20 highest reach podcasts of as of Q4 data.
So like this is programming that a lot of people are seeing. And to put another point on it, the majority of the audiences for Carlson and Kelly are Republicans over 45. So like that's Trump's base. So Trump's base is hearing it. Are they agreeing with it? TBD. But this is really permeating a large group.
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Chapter 3: What criticisms are emerging from Trump's former supporters?
I will say, though, you know, we're giving anecdotes from election results and things in the media. But like we said at the beginning, this is a base that has historically been pro-Trump. Trump's MAGA coalition is extremely strong. And I do think we're going to see instances where Democrats do better than expected. And maybe that's an adverse reaction to some of the infighting in the party.
But at the same time, I do think there are a lot of Republicans that might be unhappy with Republicans. But that in no way, shape or form necessarily means they're going to vote Democrat. You know, these are all factors in a larger kind of political firestorm right now. But we don't know how much that could benefit Democrats or hurt Republicans.
And I talked about this like broader media discourse with Republican strategist Ryan Williams. He was a longtime spokesman for Mitt Romney. worked in the George W. Bush White House. And he told me, you know, yeah, this criticism is there, but Trump has just a really, really strong base.
He's been in tune with his base in a way that no other Republican president in my lifetime has been in tune with the base. I mean, he starts with a stronger hand to weather these storms when the criticism occurs.
Yeah, I mean, it is the I am MAGA and MAGA is me. Right.
It benefits Democrats if people don't show up at the polls to vote for Republican. That's true. So who's most enthusiastic and where the fraying isn't happening is really important for which party will do well in the midterms. Now, again, it doesn't mean, as Elena said, that these folks are going to go vote Democrat because there's really binary choice in this country.
And Trump has made culture such a significant factor.
dividing line between the two parties that even if these folks feel like they're irritated with Trump, they don't like what he's done, they're certainly not going to culturally go and vote for the party that in their view is open borders and two pro-transgender rights because that's the message that they're hearing on a daily basis in podcasts like the ones we're talking about and in conservative social media.
And I think that where this leads all of us is President Trump isn't going to be on the ballot in November. He's never going to be on the ballot again.
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Chapter 4: What is the MAHA movement and how does it relate to MAGA?
He forgot where he came from.
He's probably feeling a bit on an island. And I think that part of that. Part of what's happening with the Iran war is it's exposing a crack up within the Republican Party, a sort of fissure that was underneath the entire time, which is, are they hawks or are they isolationists? Are they pro-free trade or are they pro-tariff?
And that's something that they haven't had to wrestle with because of the fact that the culture stuff has been the glue that's binded them together. And in 2028, that is going to be completely ripped open and there's going to be a huge conversation about the vision of where they take the party.
All right. We are going to take a quick break. Elena, go grab a cup of coffee. We will see you for Can't Let It Go. I can't have any more coffee, Tam. I got to have more water. Okay. Hydrate. Thank you. Hydrate. Get ready. And when we come back, another sign of division in the Trump coalition, a split between MAHA and MAGA. And we're back. And NPR's Will Stone is here. Hi, Will.
Hey there.
And now we're going to talk about another fracture in the base that elected President Trump in 2024, the MAHA movement, or Make America Healthy Again. There is a bit of discomfort now between MAHA and MAGA. So remind us, what are the main concerns or objectives of the MAHA movement?
Yeah. So the Maha Make America Healthy Again movement, right, was born from this alliance between Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Trump. And, you know, it's not just one thing. I would say there are kind of animating features and that has to do with really just concerns about our health care system, our food system, disenchantment with
big pharma and, you know, worries about the chronic diseases in the U.S. and contributions of toxins and all kinds of issues like that. So now within those kind of broad issues, you have different stakeholders and they all have their own priorities, I would say, about what needs to happen, what is most important for the Maha agenda.
Let's just explain that Maha rose out of the candidacy of RFK Jr. when he was running in the Democratic primaries against Joe Biden. Then he dropped out and endorsed Trump. And the Trump campaign did a lot to try to court his supporters. Trump obviously won. Kennedy became secretary of health and human services. And the Maha movement was officially part of the Trump coalition.
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Chapter 5: What are the main concerns of the MAHA movement?
and the contributions of that to chronic diseases. So I've spoken to activists in the Maha movement who are feeling like they need to see a lot more from the administration, and they're not very happy with how things have gone at this point.
Domenico, politicians often talk about having a big tent. Perhaps none was bigger than President Trump's coalition. But was this tent too big?
That could be one piece of it. I also think that when you have an alliance that's nonpartisan. Number one, not used to dealing with politics and figured out what its platform is. You're going to have some problems because you've got a lot of people in, frankly, some fringe portions of the right and left who have joined together in this Maha movement.
The great horseshoe of politics and ideology.
And that doesn't usually lead to a lot of political success. Also, when you think about President Trump himself himself. He's not particularly interested in a healthy foods movement.
He does love his McDonald's. His triumph was getting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to eat McDonald's.
I was just going to say that photo of Robert F. Kennedy on a plane with Donald Trump eating McDonald's. You could tell it's kind of Trump almost trolling him. You know, he's like, well, this is what it's going to be. And, you know, he loves his Diet Coke and there's a huge split. Maha people are not exactly thinking that's the best thing that you should be drinking.
So I don't know that he's like a lifer when it comes to Maha and feeling like this is a really important thing. He knows that it's an important thing politically, right? because it did help him kind of get a segment of the population. But remember, I mean, RFK Jr.
was not exactly polling it with a hugely high number, but he was attracting people who were not exactly wedded to either political party in many respects.
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Chapter 6: How is Casey Means' nomination affecting the MAHA movement?
And she would basically just deflect and say, well, I think vaccines can be important, but these are things that people should be discussing with their doctor. And it's a kind of problematic answer because... after all, the Surgeon General is the nation's top doctor and they're looked to for making broad recommendations.
And so I think she just found herself in a tough spot there as she was facing questions from people like Bill Cassidy.
especially considering RFK Jr. 's confirmation hearing himself, where he really sort of sidestepped the vaccine issue and tried to reassure Cassidy that he would not do anything to undermine vaccines in the country.
The way that he's been in practice, on the other hand, I think has made someone like Cassidy much more doubtful of people who are in the Maha world and whether or not he's going to give a green light again to someone who he feels let him down in some respects. And, you know, I think that especially someone like Susan Collins, Republican from Maine, she's in a tough reelection battle.
She also pressed her on something like her like her past use of magic mushrooms.
And, you know, these are the kinds of things that when you're talking about the surgeon general of the United States, a lot of the Republican senators who are in the middle want somebody who's going to have a more moderate background, who's going to give make people have, you know, kind of encourage people to make the right decisions about their health.
And I don't know that they're going to be all in.
You know, well, for now, at least, the White House is standing behind Casey Means and her nomination. What happens if her nomination fails, like in terms of how the Maha movement would feel about it?
I think it would be a real blemish. I will say there are certain people in the Maha movement who did have suspicion of Casey Means and felt, I think, that she wasn't actually strong enough on the on the vaccine issue, meaning, you know, didn't have enough concerns about vaccines. But there are many people who are still behind her.
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Chapter 7: What challenges does Trump face with his coalition ahead of the midterms?
waging rhetorical war against Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly and then having to sit down with Maha influencers to try to make sure that they'll stay on board with the Republican Party while also trying to be the commander in chief for a war that's actually going on, an actual war with Iran and trying to get the Strait of Hormuz open.
It doesn't really make for a really easy way to get everybody to be unified to go to the polls in the fall.
All right. Well, we are going to take another quick break. Will Stone, thank you so much.
Thanks for having me.
And when we come back, it's time for Can't Let It Go. And we're back, and so too is Elena Moore. Hello. Hi. I drank water. Good. I'm glad you're hydrated. It is time for Can't Let It Go, the part of the pod where we talk about the things from the week that we just can't stop thinking about politics or otherwise. Domenico, you go first.
Well, I want to kind of I was thinking about the Supreme Court because during the birthright citizenship case, it was kind of fun to be able to see the interactions between the justices again. And it started making me think about how they get along behind the scenes.
And then I saw this story in USA Today about a little bit of shade that Sonia Sotomayor, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, gave to Brett Kavanaugh, one of the other justices, conservative justice appointed by Trump. And Sonia Sotomayor is one of the liberal justices who was appointed by Barack Obama.
She was at a University of Kansas event and there was a case in which ICE, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, was doing stops where they were pulling people over and, you know, a group pushed back against that, took it to the Supreme Court saying that this was racial profiling. And Kavanaugh wrote the opinion essentially saying that these are temporary stops. It's not that big a deal.
And like, let them continue on that people only miss a little bit of time. This is what she had to say about him without naming him. She said, She added that those hours that they took away, nobody's paying that person. And that makes a difference between a meal for him and his kids that night and maybe just cold supper. I mean... I don't think they're sharing any warm meals.
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Chapter 8: What are the implications of Trump's low approval ratings for the Republican Party?
Because that's the only reason I was like, oh, so Ryan Gosling is a physicist because he has glasses. I was like, yeah, right. Keep going. Sorry.
I mean, there was a lot of willing suspension of disbelief, but it was a lovely, fun film. And then the Artemis 2 mission, we watched the liftoff and Splashdown is tonight.
And then I just happened, because my book club has, you know, every month we have a different book in my book club, just happened during this past week to also read a book called Atmosphere by Taylor Jenkins Reid, which is all about female astronauts going getting into the shuttle program. It's fiction. It's a love story. It's very romantic.
Anyway, I cried about space a lot this week. My sister did, too. My middle sister in New York City got so into the Artemis stuff. She's been giving my family all these updates. She also got emotional when one of the astronauts named... You want to talk about it? Oh, my God.
Oh, my God. I first heard it listening to All Things Considered and our friend Scott Detrow, and he played the clip. One of the astronauts on this mission, his wife had died of cancer a couple of years ago, and they saw some new craters on the moon that shined bright, and they wanted to name one of the craters after the astronaut's late wife.
When they called that down to Mission Control, I was like, oh, no, my mascara. Oh, my God.
Elena, what can't you let go of? I'm going to end on a high note and do a bit of a kind of like an appreciation can't let it go. I don't know if you guys do this, but I really can't consume news when I'm not working. Like I don't really like listen to news shows besides in the morning or maybe on the way home. I've gotten so into. Thank you so much for having me.
Before she talks to the guest she's going to have, and it's usually a longtime comedian friend or someone she really loves and admires, she talks to someone the guest knows very well. And they talk well behind their back instead of like talking, you know, badly behind your back. She ends the show by asking the last question. It kind of reminds me of Can't Let It Go.
She's like, what are you reading, watching, listening to that makes you laugh? And even if it's like, I'm really into AI cat, this cat video, they like will play it and you'll just hear them be like... And I feel like it's a good lesson. So I'm like, we should like maybe end with maybe we can tip our hat to them. But like, I don't know what's making you guys laugh.
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