Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.