Decoding 2026
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
So AI search, something that needs to be invested more into it.
Kia ora and welcome to a special guest edition of the New Zealand property market podcast brought to you by Kotaudi. I'm Nick Goodall head of research for Kotaudi and today we're going to review all the results of the just released report called decoding 2026 which surveyed over 1 000 property professionals about their read on the market and expectations for the future including the impact of planning reform and the ever-changing digital landscape In order to truly understand the results, I've assembled some great guests today, starting with the man who leads one of the most successful real estate teams, not just here in New Zealand, but across Australasia, and founder of the New Zealand Real Estate Conference.
Based in Auckland, we've got Diego Trapia. Diego, thank you so much for coming on the show, mate. Looking forward to getting stuck into this one with you, mate. Likewise.
Thanks, Nick. Hi, Tom.
Hi, James. G'day, mate. And next up, we do have all the way from down the other end of the country, a proven top performer who ranks in the top 3% of Ray White agents across the entire group. And as the co-owner for one of the leading Ray White offices in New Zealand down in Invercargill, James McRobbie. James, I feel like this chat is long overdue given the strength of the Invercargill market.
What are the key findings of the Decoding 2026 report?
So I'm stoked you're here to help us understand what is it about the Deep South that's seeing it top so many charts lately. So thanks for coming on.
Hey, pleasure to be here, guys. And you're married to a Southland lass, aren't you? So you should know, right?
Correct, mate. Yeah, there's always a passing view down south, but you can't beat those boots on the ground. So we'll get your thoughts on that shortly. And lastly, though, to round us out today, we do have Tom Code, Head of Industry Solutions for Cotality NZ. Tom, not your first time on the pod, but it has been way too long since your last appearance. So I'm really looking forward to getting your take on some of the more strategic insights that we've drawn from the report, mate. Thanks for coming on. Thanks for having me back. It's awesome to be back. Good stuff, good stuff. All right then, fellas, let's get into it. Look, I think the high-level key outtake from this report was that sentiment among professionals in the industry has improved.
You know, they're feeling better about where the market's at right now and the likely future of it as well. We saw that almost three-quarters of all New Zealand respondents expect house prices to rise over the next year, and this included 14% to anticipate growth above 5%. I suppose, as is often the case with this, there are significant regional differences, and that's part of the reason for really being keen to get a couple of agents from different parts of the country. But before we go into those details, I think we saw something like greater positivity in Canterbury. I think 87% of all Canterbury respondents thought there'd be increasing prices, whereas here in Wellington, We only saw about 63%, so some pretty big differences.
I'm really keen to hear about your guys' experiences on the ground though, particularly I think at the end of last year. We'll sort of get to the new year and how things have played out. So Diego, do you mind kicking us off with our largest centre, with Auckland, coming off a pretty prolonged downturn and then plateau of values. Did things feel like they were getting better prior to the sort of holiday period kicking in last year?
Nick, yeah, well, look, if you put it into perspective, Auckland has lost over 20% of values since the peak in 2021. That's not an opinion. That's a fact, right? I call it a bubble burst because, you know, when you lose 20, 25% of values over the short amount of time, that is what many people call a bubble burst. So we are basically starting from this point. One thing that I want to be a little bit prudent is that over the last three years, there have been two or three false starts where there has been for a prolonged number of weeks, maybe a couple of months, there have been increases in prices.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–1:19
2
What are the key findings of the Decoding 2026 report?
1:19–11:20
3
How does market sentiment vary across different regions in New Zealand?
11:20–15:26
4
What factors are influencing property values in Auckland?
15:26–24:03
5
Why is Invercargill's property market performing well?
24:03–35:57
6
What challenges is the Wellington property market currently facing?
35:57–46:04
7
How are interest rates affecting property buyers' decisions?
46:04–56:18
Speakers
4 identifiedMore from The NZ Property Market Podcast
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