Chapter 1: What are the implications of Trump's second term on the midterms?
The New York Times app has all this stuff that you may not have seen. The way the tabs are at the top with all of the different sections.
I can immediately navigate to something that matches what I'm feeling.
I go to games always.
Doing the mini, doing the wordle.
I loved how much content it exposed me to. Things that I never would have thought to turn to a news app for.
This app is essential.
The New York Times app. All of the times, all in one place. Download it now at nytimes.com slash app.
This is The Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.
I'm Michelle Cottle. I cover national politics for New York Times Opinion. And this week, we have the band back together. David French, Jamel Bowie, my fantastic colleagues and columnists. It is so good to see you for the first time in 2026. It has been such a quiet start to the year. How are you feeling? Good? I'm tired already, Michelle. You're tired already?
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Chapter 2: How are Democrats preparing for the upcoming midterms?
Yeah. Jamel? I think David's right that in terms of messages to win, all you really have to do is like announce your intention to hold the administration accountable in like, you know, concrete ways. I do think that Democrats are going to be using the midterms to test out messages, right, to try to reach out to voters they know they're going to need in 2028.
And so I would expect to see some version of what Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said a couple of days ago, I believe. She was like walking on the steps of the Capitol and said to a reporter, you know, they cut your healthcare to pay for this ICE stuff, right? That's both a accountability message and like a kitchen table affordability message, right? It's both...
They cut food stamps so they could shoot a woman in the face. I mean, I don't know. I don't know if anyone's going to go that like that's how if I were running for office, I would say I'm a little blunt in that regard. But I would imagine you'll get some version of that, that like the government could be doing these things to help you.
But they cut all of that to pay for, you know, armed thugs harassing your friends and neighbors. That, I think, is going to be the way they try to capture both ends of this. And I actually think that's a pretty effective message, right?
I think it's both a recognition of kind of like the material stuff that people really care about and a recognition of the kind of soul of America stuff that people do really care about.
Yeah. There's also an appeal that Democrats can make to sort of the educated Republican voters. And you've got some messages there that I think could resonate with them. You know, Trump just proposed a $600 billion increase in defense spending, $600 billion for one year, okay?
He proposed a plan that the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget would say would add almost $6 trillion in deficit to the United, in debt to the United States. And, you know, why is that? Well, his Don Roe doctrine is going to bankrupt America because when you alienate all of our allies, guess what? They actually carry, all of our allies collectively carry more of the defense burden.
than we do, okay? And so if you alienate our allies, we're gonna bankrupt ourselves trying to pick up that slack. And so there's lots of things how you can make a Greenland controversy or the Venezuelan intervention resonate in domestic terms and say, your arrogance and your pride and your alienation of allies is bankrupting this country.
So I think that's exactly right. Earlier this week, I was talking to Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, and he was kind of walking me through the party's umbrella theme for the midterms of – and we've got to go with the alliteration – costs, chaos, and corruption. That gives them a framework for saying these are all tied together.
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Chapter 3: What strategies do Republicans plan to implement in the midterms?
Please do.
Okay. So here is my theory. Okay. My theory is that we're going to be very soon reaching a point where you need to stop looking at Trump's approval rating to know how popular MAGA is. And here's what I mean. Trump, I think at this point, we're now in the 10th year since he came down the escalator and announced his presidency. So in the 10 years.
Oh, my God. I can't wait till that phrase is dead. I am like I would like to burn that escalator to the ground as a metal.
I just I just like imagining like a calendar where it's like B.E. and A.E. Oh, gosh.
I mean, so does Trump, Jamel. So does Trump. Go ahead.
So we're in the year 10 AE. So in the year 10 AE, I think a lot of Trump voters, that is part of their identity now. It is fixed. And from now on, Republicans are going to be running without Donald Trump on the ballot. And so I think that
the Trump position is going to be an artificially high indicator of the popularity of MAGA policies, that the actual indicator of MAGA policies is going to be much more indicated by, in some senses, although I think issue polling is often kind of quasi garbage, but if you start to see overwhelming numbers in issue polling, And then ultimately in the outcome of the midterm elections.
And I think a lot of Republicans are starting to sink in that the rules that apply to Trump or the rules that don't apply to Trump still apply to them.
Okay, which brings me to something I need both of you to address, which is we've spent a lot of time on this podcast talking about Republican members of Congress pushing back against Trump or rather not. Do you already see signs of this changing? I'm thinking in particular of like the opposition to Trump's persecution of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
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Chapter 4: How do voter expectations shape the outcome of elections?
And I was talking to Thomas Massey a couple of weeks ago, who, as I'm sure you know, is Trump's least favorite House Republican. And he predicted that after this cycle of primaries, some of his colleagues would start to loosen up and be more willing to defy the White House going forward. What do you think?
Yeah. I'll believe it when I see it, you know, like, okay, okay, Representative Massey, sure. I'll believe it when I see it. I do think that you see, I mean, on sort of things that are truly beyond the pale, you do see Republicans kind of, you know, blanch a bit.
You know, House Republicans recently joined with Democrats to put a health care, you know, ACA subsidies extension, you know, pass out of the House. There's a decent chance it passed the Senate. But as far as anything more serious than that, again, I will I will believe it when I see it.
I want to add one comment on I think David's good point about the delta between MAGA issue and Trump issue, you might say. I think you can see that in the relative approvals of Trump and J.D. Vance. Good point. J.D. Vance, not especially popular, right? In a post-Trump world, J.D. Vance clearly wants to be the standard bearer for MAGA.
And he is just broadly disliked in a way that is obviously somewhat just him.
Well, he's like the opposite of Trump as a cultural phenomenon, right? J.D. Vance is pure political aspiration and like you're kind of just straightforward political business as usual. Yeah. He's not a celebrity. He's not charismatic. He can't order a donut without looking awkward. He doesn't know how to talk to people.
He's every senator in a suit who hears Hail to the Chief playing in his head on some level.
Right, right, right, right. Exactly.
And we consistently underestimate the extent to which Trump is a completely unique cultural figure as a politician. And those of us who have dived into this for a long time, the mystique is over, right? With Trump, like, the mystique is gone. But I think we underestimate the extent to which, for a lot of Americans, the mystique still exists.
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Chapter 5: What factors contribute to the success of midterm candidates?
And I understand the temptation to latch on to worst-case scenarios and fantasies. It makes a lot of sense in the moment. But you have to temper that stuff with sort of like, okay, how does the practical – operation of government to actually work. That's all.
I think Jamel is exactly right. I'm glad you brought up the numbers of ICE. ICE cannot control America. It cannot do it.
And then there's another factor that I don't think people have appreciated quite enough, and that is the Supreme Court's decision in Trump v. Illinois here in the last few weeks, where it upheld an order blocking the National Guard deployment under this particular statute that Trump was trying to use.
that if he was permitted to use it sort of at his discretion, at his will, yeah, we don't have very many ICE officers, but we've got hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the Guard. And you could easily imagine
a scenario where he starts deploying the guard into, to quote, to preserve the sanctity of the election or whatever pretext that he would use, not in a way that would overtly block people from voting, but then would create an atmosphere of intimidation that might sort of deter people from going to the polls.
And I think that Trump v. Illinois case was very, very important because it's really cut off from him this ability to just deploy the guard at his whim. Now, there's still the Insurrection Act hovering out there. That's a whole different can of worms. But I do think that there is great hope to the point where I think it's irresponsible
to argue otherwise, that the midterms are gonna be regular elections under regular order, counted in the regular way. That's the way this is all going to unfold. And I think it's very important to get that message out there. As far as what are Republicans gonna do, I think what you're gonna see is just more of what Republicans firmly believe works for them, which is negative polarization.
And I think that one thing, and this is, I'm gonna take this in kind of a dark direction. It is very hard for me to watch ICE tactics without thinking that there's a purpose here beyond intimidation and that is absolutely provocation. And that Trump is trying to, okay, it creates the impression
ICE tactics create the impression that Trump is trying to, and the administration is trying to, recreate many of the conditions in 2020. I think that's absolutely right. Because I think in Republican circles, there is a firm belief amongst a lot of more radicalized Republicans that 2020 and the rioting and the violence in the streets in 2020...
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Chapter 6: How do primary voter dynamics affect party strategies?
But that just means it's time for Rex. And... David, last week, you were fired up to defend the Stranger Things finale. Are you going to go down that road and confront the haters today? Or are you going to give someone a different?
I have to. I have to. You know, I know, I know. They landed the plane in a way that I thought was... true to the story, and true, more importantly, to the ethos of the entire show. And it kind of comes full circle in a way. And maybe it just hit me in all the feels because, Michelle and Jamel, this might come as a surprise to you. I was a dungeon master in middle school and high school.
Oh, I am putting that one in my pocket for later use, David. I was a dungeon master. You told me that? Uh...
And just that, you know, that chapter of life was really special. And just sort of seeing the development of friendships and the bonds that you form with your childhood friends, and then the sense of loss as you grow older and you lose touch to some degree, some greater or lesser degree.
I just thought it was so emotionally true and real in a way that a movie about super-powered telekinetic people doing battle with demigorgons from another dimension... In that context, it's one of the most emotionally real shows I've seen.
You know what? I support you in this. I support you, David.
I've never seen a second of Stranger Things in my life, and I don't intend to change that.
You have so much to look forward to, Jamil. I know, Jamil.
It's literally never going to happen.
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