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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk.
Chapter 2: What new phase is the war in Ukraine entering?
The war in Ukraine is entering a new phase where technology is increasingly defining the fight. From drone swarms to unmanned ground vehicles, Kyiv is reshaping how wars are waged in real time. President Volodymyr Zelensky said some positions are now being recaptured without troops on the ground, taken instead by coordinated drone and robotic systems.
So what does it mean for the conflict and indeed for the future of warfare and the future of defense spending? I'm joined now by Patrick Bury, defense expert at the University of Bath. Patrick, good morning. Good morning, Pat.
Chapter 3: How are drones changing the tactics in the Ukraine conflict?
Now, first of all, you might bring us up to date on the state of the war where, you know, it's off the headlines because of what's going on in Iran and other international events, the oil crisis and so on. So what is happening on the front lines in Ukraine? First off, it's good to actually cover it because it has, as you said, dropped off completely.
Basically, what has happened in the recent last six months, which is about the innovation cycles and technology that we're seeing from the Ukrainians and then the Russians later on copy them, is the Ukrainians have developed across the front line a drone wall, which is basically persistent drone coverage for about 40 to 60 kilometers in depth over the front line.
Chapter 4: What impact does Ukraine's drone strategy have on Russian operations?
And then with that, they've changed their targeting. So instead of just trying to kill Russian soldiers, which Russians obviously have a lot of, the Ukrainians have worked out that it's better if they target the logistics, the command and control, and crucially, the Russian drone operators.
And by doing so, what has happened so far is the Russian spring offensive that we were expecting has failed to materialize. So it's having a large impact on our ability to basically form up and plan operations. and get through that drone line. And even in some areas, the Ukrainians at the tactical level have been advancing. So that's the kind of major innovation at the moment.
It favours the defender in general.
Chapter 5: What advancements in unmanned ground vehicles are being utilized?
And yeah, the Russian spring offensive that we're all expecting as a big push hasn't materialised so far. And then, as you said, the unmanned ground vehicle element is tying into that, especially in terms of holding defensive positions. There's There have been reports of like one automated heavy machine gun holding a position for over a month, you know.
And, of course, then similarly, these vehicles being used to attack certain positions. But what I would say is the front line, as we know, it doesn't really exist. You know, it's not like the First World War. You're talking about small numbers of troops hiding in bunkers with beads being told what's going on around them by the drones.
And then if they have to come out of their positions only at the last minute, do they do so? So what does that mean in terms of Russia's numerical advantage in terms of the kind of troops they can draw upon, even if those troops go to the front line reluctantly?
Chapter 6: How is the economic situation in Russia affecting its military capabilities?
Are they no longer necessary? Well, what you're seeing is the Ukrainians have decided that killing what the Russians have a lot of isn't really their center of gravity, what we call the thing with which you attack to stop them being able to continue operations. Actually, much more vital is the logistics and the drone operators.
So by destroying those and the command and control nodes using the drones, they're slowing down their ability to be able to even launch attacks. What we're seeing is the quality and the desire of norm, the quality of the troops and the desire of people to serve in Russia now is decreasing.
There's a recent video of a parade of about a company's worth, so 100 Russian, and they're all just so old, Pat. It's really interesting to see, you know. And obviously drawn from the much more poorer areas of Russia and sort of pushed out the door by their a lot of the time by their women who are like, well, I want a new fridge, for example, so you can go and fight and potentially die for that.
Now, the question of the drone technology and how it has advanced very quickly in Ukraine, I'm reading that one of the drone systems they have can penetrate as far as 1,750 kilometers, which gets it well into Russia.
Yeah, well, when we're talking about drones, obviously you've got the sort of smaller loitering ones which provide constant ISRs, so intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, maybe... other ones which have light warheads on, which are then used for targeting, etc. And you can have, of course, dual use of these. They're the much smaller ones.
Then you have the longer, single-use, heavier payload, and in some cases used for basically strategic depth, so to target.
um in this example russian oil refineries uh which they have been doing to good effect so that's the development of this sort of the twin capability which has been really interesting in terms of the wider strategic impact and hitting russian oil production which of course as we're seeing the economy is increasingly under pressure um it's just a pity the iran war has happened because if that hadn't and the uh sanctions on russia had remained i think
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Chapter 7: What lessons can be learned from Ukraine's defense strategies?
the timescale for things getting really difficult for the Russians would have been much shorter. Now, do we know what is actually happening within Russia?
Because obviously Ukraine is a Western-facing nation, and you hear a lot more about the damage inflicted by the Russians, you know, when they send over multiple attack drones themselves, and you see video of apartment buildings being destroyed and so on, and we hear about casualties. Do we know much about what's happening in Russia?
The last time I kind of checked on the economic and oil output, it was down, the output and the revenue was down by about a third, which over time is very significant given their military spending, et cetera, has generally gone up and they've switched into a kind of militarized, securitized state.
The other one is since the Venezuela operation and whatever Putin has learned from that, there's been basically a internet slowdown slash back out across much of Russia. So there's clearly a fear that whatever means was used in the Venezuela could be used against Putin again. So I think there's paranoia there. There's a blackout as well.
And as I mentioned, there's less likelihood of people signing up.
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Chapter 8: How is the conflict in Ukraine influencing global military technology?
We'll just have to see how these kind of come together in the medium term. But that sanctions relief is a real boon to Russia as well. Sure, they can compensate for the lost output by increased prices of international oil. Now, President Zelensky offered help to the Gulf states in how to combat Iranian drones.
I mean, that's something that it appears that the Ukrainians have mastered, given that the Russians were using Iranian either designed or manufactured drones against them. But also we saw the Iranians themselves adjusting their tactics and realizing that every time one of their drones was attacked by a Patriot missile, it was, you know, $2 million worth.
And they could use cluster munitions to make sure that something got through irrespective of what the Patriot missile targeted. How is that evolving the approach to war, all of that? Well, obviously, it's about asymmetry of costs.
So, therefore, the strategic level, it's difficult to sustain if you're firing, as you said, 3 million on the cheaper side of a Patriot missile and up to much higher for like a THAAD system. So, but the crucial thing there is basically the Iranians developed it with, you know, they adjusted their tactics with Russian help and probably open source Chinese equipment. satellite imagery as well.
So this is a learning curve which was enabled by the Russians and what they've been doing in Ukraine and then very quickly bolted on, you know, basically lessons learned and instigated into the Iranian attack packages. And yeah, they're very smart the way they did it. You know, they took out numerous of the radars on these incredibly expensive and rare US systems. The US has had to ship
backups into the region. But for example, as a THAAD system, there's only eight. They're the highest level interceptors that should be used against the most dangerous ballistic missiles. There's only eight of those in the world, and it looks like they've definitely taken out radar on one, potentially up to three. So, yeah, there's a complete asymmetry here.
And basically, you know, for kind of wider defenses, well, how do we move to defending against drones? And can we use drones, which you're seeing as well, potentially as interceptors against missiles? So that's where the technological leap is at at the moment. And it has interesting implications for how Ireland, for example, set configures itself.
Yeah, well, we saw Santa Martin talking on behalf of the EU that we must learn from Ukraine or defence money will be wasted, Santa Martin said. And the same obviously will apply in Ireland, the limited defence spending we have and the limited capability we have. So what should we do based on the lessons of Ukraine?
I think what Ukraine's been able to do, first of all, it's a whole society effort because they're in a war, you know, an existential war. And the rest of Europe isn't yet, but it might be. And, like, if you look at what happened in the Allied nations in the Second World War, you had the same sort of thing. The stops of government, the red tape and everything come off.
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