The War in Ukraine is entering a new phase
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk.
What new phase is the war in Ukraine entering?
The war in Ukraine is entering a new phase where technology is increasingly defining the fight. From drone swarms to unmanned ground vehicles, Kyiv is reshaping how wars are waged in real time. President Volodymyr Zelensky said some positions are now being recaptured without troops on the ground, taken instead by coordinated drone and robotic systems. So what does it mean for the conflict and indeed for the future of warfare and the future of defense spending? I'm joined now by Patrick Bury, defense expert at the University of Bath. Patrick, good morning. Good morning, Pat.
How are drones changing the tactics in the Ukraine conflict?
Now, first of all, you might bring us up to date on the state of the war where, you know, it's off the headlines because of what's going on in Iran and other international events, the oil crisis and so on. So what is happening on the front lines in Ukraine? First off, it's good to actually cover it because it has, as you said, dropped off completely. Basically, what has happened in the recent last six months, which is about the innovation cycles and technology that we're seeing from the Ukrainians and then the Russians later on copy them, is the Ukrainians have developed across the front line a drone wall, which is basically persistent drone coverage for about 40 to 60 kilometers in depth over the front line.
What impact does Ukraine's drone strategy have on Russian operations?
And then with that, they've changed their targeting. So instead of just trying to kill Russian soldiers, which Russians obviously have a lot of, the Ukrainians have worked out that it's better if they target the logistics, the command and control, and crucially, the Russian drone operators. And by doing so, what has happened so far is the Russian spring offensive that we were expecting has failed to materialize. So it's having a large impact on our ability to basically form up and plan operations. and get through that drone line. And even in some areas, the Ukrainians at the tactical level have been advancing. So that's the kind of major innovation at the moment. It favours the defender in general.
What advancements in unmanned ground vehicles are being utilized?
And yeah, the Russian spring offensive that we're all expecting as a big push hasn't materialised so far. And then, as you said, the unmanned ground vehicle element is tying into that, especially in terms of holding defensive positions. There's There have been reports of like one automated heavy machine gun holding a position for over a month, you know. And, of course, then similarly, these vehicles being used to attack certain positions. But what I would say is the front line, as we know, it doesn't really exist. You know, it's not like the First World War. You're talking about small numbers of troops hiding in bunkers with beads being told what's going on around them by the drones. And then if they have to come out of their positions only at the last minute, do they do so?
So what does that mean in terms of Russia's numerical advantage in terms of the kind of troops they can draw upon, even if those troops go to the front line reluctantly?
How is the economic situation in Russia affecting its military capabilities?
Are they no longer necessary? Well, what you're seeing is the Ukrainians have decided that killing what the Russians have a lot of isn't really their center of gravity, what we call the thing with which you attack to stop them being able to continue operations. Actually, much more vital is the logistics and the drone operators. So by destroying those and the command and control nodes using the drones, they're slowing down their ability to be able to even launch attacks. What we're seeing is the quality and the desire of norm, the quality of the troops and the desire of people to serve in Russia now is decreasing. There's a recent video of a parade of about a company's worth, so 100 Russian, and they're all just so old, Pat.
It's really interesting to see, you know. And obviously drawn from the much more poorer areas of Russia and sort of pushed out the door by their a lot of the time by their women who are like, well, I want a new fridge, for example, so you can go and fight and potentially die for that. Now, the question of the drone technology and how it has advanced very quickly in Ukraine, I'm reading that one of the drone systems they have can penetrate as far as 1,750 kilometers, which gets it well into Russia.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:08
2
What new phase is the war in Ukraine entering?
0:08–0:43
3
How are drones changing the tactics in the Ukraine conflict?
0:43–1:24
4
What impact does Ukraine's drone strategy have on Russian operations?
1:24–2:04
5
What advancements in unmanned ground vehicles are being utilized?
2:04–2:57
6
How is the economic situation in Russia affecting its military capabilities?
2:57–5:06
7
What lessons can be learned from Ukraine's defense strategies?
5:06–6:18
8
How is the conflict in Ukraine influencing global military technology?
6:18–12:00