US-Iran ceasefire in limbo: What happens next?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Pat Kenny Show. With Timber Living Log Cabins. Saturday and Sunday from 10am. On Newstalk. Conversation that counts. The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran appears to be under its greatest strain yet. Fresh American strikes have been met with Iranian retaliation. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is once again under threat. And President Trump himself has cast doubt on whether the peace agreement is still alive. At the same time, Washington is wrestling with a bitter political battle over funding the conflict. And after taking aim at several NATO members in Ankara, Trump seems to have adopted a more benevolent attitude to Ukraine. Meanwhile, questions are also mounting over President Trump's latest move to dismiss the remaining members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, raising fresh concerns about the health of American institutions ahead of this year's midterm elections in November.
And finally, the mystery of the missing Senator Mitch McConnell. Has the Republican Party aped the old Soviet technique of keeping leaders alive for as long as it suited them?
Is the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (ceasefire) dead or in limbo?
Now, to help us separate the immediate military developments from the wider political implications, we're joined by Professor Scott Lucas from UCD's Clinton Institute. Good morning, Scott. Very good morning to you, Pat. First of all, is the MOU, the Memorandum of Understanding, is it dead or on life support?
It's in limbo, Pat. And the reason for that is that we're not at a point where we're going to have a return to the war that had taken place up until April the 7th. primarily because the Trump administration doesn't have good options militarily. But at the same time, we're not going to get movement towards a deal because of the fundamental issue of the Strait of Hormuz. That's that vital waterway through what, 20 to 25% of the world's maritime oil and gas passes. Iran controls the Strait, which of course it did not before the war started on February 28th. The Trump folks want to break Iranian control of the Strait because if they don't, they've got no alternative but to move towards a deal on Iranian terms.
And that's why we get these clashes that take place, including the most recent this week. The Iranians will fire on a few vessels who are traveling through the Strait without their permission. The Americans who would like those vessels to travel without Iranian permission will then retaliate by hitting Iranian military targets. in the south of the country primarily. And then after about 48 to 72 hours, everybody takes a step back and we all wonder if we're going to get back to negotiations.
Meanwhile, the Israelis will continue to target Lebanon. And it was the understanding of the Iranians and to some extent the Americans that Israel would cease its hostilities in Lebanon. And that hasn't happened.
Well, we're not getting as many civilian deaths as we got. Now, that's very much a limited blessing at this point because the Israelis are continuing military operations to really set up a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon. How deep it goes, we still wait to see. But it does mean we still get a few deaths each day because the Israelis are trying to pick off certain targets, probably Hezbollah members. But there are still some civilians who are getting killed. So in one incident earlier this week, there was a doctor and effectively the people with whom she was traveling, a couple of her other family members and a Syrian worker. And they were in a vehicle. And whatever happened, whether or not the Israelis had the wrong details on the car, whether they just simply took a pot shot, they killed all four of these people.
The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, we know it was under strain. Are the Israelis attempting to rehabilitate that in some way?
Well, I think right now the Israelis have also got this election coming up, which is now going to take up a lot of the bandwidth because Netanyahu is facing a fairly serious challenge, not from the left of Israeli politics, I have to say, but from other aspects of the right who really blame him not just for a bundled war on Iran, but bundling the approach to Gaza over the past couple of years.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–1:07
2
Is the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (ceasefire) dead or in limbo?
1:07–10:08
3
How do recent US strikes and Iranian retaliation change control of the Strait of Hormuz?
10:08–15:11
4
How are Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza affecting the ceasefire dynamics?
15:11–18:58