* Dollar usually drops on bad news but rallies because traders automatically buy on the dip * Bad news is dismissed because the first quarter "doesn't count" * This puts greater pressure on the last 3 quarters to make up for the first quarter and still show growth * Expectations of a bump similar to last year are based on non-repeatable conditions - Obamacare and inventory build * Inventory to sales ratio is the highest it has been since 2009 * What is the basis for dismissal of the bad news in Q1? * Data confirms that the consumer is already broke * Consumers will be hit with rising oil prices * Traders who are loading up on the dollar are ignoring all the evidence that they are wrong * The wake-up call will be like the sub-prime mortgage crisis * The same thing will happen in the Foreign Exchange Markets when they realize the story is not about a recovery but about another round of QE * Changing trend coming in the dollar * Changing trend in the oil market * Changing trend in the gold market * If we don't get a recovery in the summer how is the Fed going to raise rates in Q4? * Election year 2016 will likely see no rate hikes * Retail Sales missed Wall Street expectations with a bounce of only .9 * March Small Business Optimism fell to lowest level in 9 months * Hiring Plans dropped to lowest level in 6 months * Business Inventories for February rose to .3 based on weak wholesale sales * Inventory to Sales Ratio holding at 1.36 (highest since July of 2009) * My radio broadcasts from a year ago predicted that the data was not reflecting reality * April Empire State Manufacturing Index missed expectations at -1.9, near a 2-year low * Employment down * Hours worked down * New orders down to 3-year lows * Prices paid went up * March Industrial Production dropped .6, missing expectations - 4th consecutive month below estimate * This news can't be blamed on April showers * Those who have been betting on the recovery are about to realize they made the wrong betOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.

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