* Government's first look at Q1 GDP * There was a lot of optimism around Q1 with expectations above 3% * Actual GDP was 1/5 of expectations at.2% * The rest of the story of Q1 GDP: * The deflator this time was negative - meaning that prices dropped by .1% * The last time the deflator was negative was 2009 Q2; still in the Great Recession * The previous occurrence of a negative deflator was in 1949 * I believe the true rate of inflation is higher than -.1% * Inventory build continued into Q1 - businesses continue to believe the myth of the recovery * Inventory to sales ratio are the highest they have been since the Great Recession * They are still blaming poor economic performance on the weather. It is always cold in the winter; why is bad weather always a surprise? * The Fed just released their official statement on interest rate policy * They removed language from statement indicating it is unlikely that rates will rise * Continuing give the illusion that they are progressing toward a point when they will raise interest rates * The Fed went out of its way to dismiss all the bad economic news we got in Q1 * The dollar just had its biggest 2-day decline in 6 years * The Fed came out and put a smiley face on the whole thing and the dollar recovered somewhat * The Fed is never going to confess that they are worried; that's not their job * What evidence is there that things will improve in Q2? * Cheap gas windfall is over; oil prices have risen every week in the past month * Early April economic data is negative * An economy based on spending is a bubble; production grows an economy * Consumers have lots of debt, but they don't have good jobs * Decline in the dollar signals that the markets are already sensing this * The Fed feels that economic growth will recover in Q2 & Q3 * They also said they need to see additional strength in the labor market * Business are making foolish decisions because they believe the Fed * As the economy disappoints, the labor market will continue to deteriorate * The Fed can't raise interest rates and they are headed ror QE4 * We need more and more stimulus because we've built up a resistance * The real crisis will be a dollar crisis * When the economy heads south and the Fed has to do QE 4, the Fed will lose a lot of credibility * Janet Yellen will not be able to deliver on her promise to shrink the balance sheet by the end of the decadeOur Sponsors:* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.

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