Everyone Gave Up On Bitcoin At Exactly The Wrong Time | Jordi Visser
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Has Bitcoin truly bottomed and why are investors giving up right now?
And as we go forward, I'm going to say it again, the AI mid-cycle slowdown is basically the peak and the easy money of AI. And so if the money starts filtering back towards the other direction, I've laid out a pretty bullish case for Bitcoin. If you haven't got it, if we're overestimating the inflation side and productivity is coming, if we're overestimating the hawkishness of the Fed, from what warsh said and at the same time the ai trade is not going to lose its earnings growth it's just going to make it more difficult for institutions to stay long at the way they have in the past then all of a sudden the the lower volatility of bitcoin will probably lead in if we get above the 200-day moving average with everything that i just said which is up up north of 70 at this point i do think that that's going to be the beginning of the next phase of crypto and the next phase of ai we'll see if it happens in the second half of the year i think it will
What's going on guys? Today we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. It's 4th of July. So he's here to explain to us what's going on in the AI trade, why he thinks that the mid-cycle slowdown is something you should pay attention to. He also describes why maybe some of the easy trades are gone and things are going to get a little bit harder from here. And then we talk about Bitcoin and why he's getting excited about Bitcoin once again. And then of course, we go through a whole bunch of macroeconomic data points and he tries to unpack Why exactly are some people ignoring these data points? And has he thinking about investing in his portfolio? All that and much more in today's conversation with Jordy Visser.
All right, Jordy, happy 4th of July, little 4th of July edition here with the American flag hat. Let's start with Bitcoin. You know, a lot of people think Bitcoin is one of the most American assets you could have, but Bitcoin has not been doing very well. And it seems like people are starting to kind of give up a little bit online. What's your take? Is that actually a good sign that you need people to give up to get to the bottom of the bear market?
Well, first of all, I think give up is an understatement. It's very hard to find people jumping into it. So if you kind of took a poll of 100 people that have never been in Bitcoin, 100 of them will say, I have no interest. If you've had people that have been involved, at this point, I would say at least 60 to 70% are questioning any involvement they've had. And so you've got kind of hardcore people that are still in there. I'll just, I'll give you... you know, my take in terms of this. This has been a bad year for for Bitcoin with a lot of headwinds, starting with software, which we talked about a lot at the beginning of the year and how it got lumped in with everything that was built on code. Once the software stuff kind of bottomed, you got into the what you said, which is complete agreement.
A country like Korea, which was part of the energy for Bitcoin, moved everything into basically memory. And we've seen massive leverage and margin debt and everything else. So Bitcoin, which was always kind of the place you'd go to if you wanted to trade beta relative to tech. Well, that ended and everyone now has beta in tech where you can get 10 baggers in the span of a year. But then one other part that I don't think people fully embraced as the last leg. And I talked about it briefly last week with this whole debasement unwind, where it got lumped in with gold and silver. The rationale behind that, which is starting to become more interesting to me, and I'm seeing some technical signs finally with divergences, which I'll finish this off with, but...
I think the debasement trade unwind. There is a direct relationship here between something we talked about a lot and something I was concerned about for really the last five, six weeks. But then last week talked about that I'm not as concerned about anymore was this inflation uptick, particularly in core PCE, core CPI with energy going higher.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
Has Bitcoin truly bottomed and why are investors giving up right now?
0:00–10:04
2
Is the Bitcoin–Megacap (Mag7) correlation breaking and how are portfolios rotating?
10:04–18:11
3
Why did OpenAI/Sam Altman involve the U.S. government and what does that mean for AI?
18:11–28:32
4
How does American open‑source AI compare to Chinese open‑source models today?
28:32–38:30
5
What is the AI compute demand and how big will the infrastructure buildout be?
38:30–50:06
6
How severe and how long will the AI mid‑cycle slowdown last?
50:06–55:11
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The Pomp Podcast
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