Largest Bitcoin Miner Predicts Next Bitcoin Bull Run | Fred Thiel
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
If you look at Bitcoin mining, it costs you a little over a million dollars a megawatt for infrastructure and miners.
Is there enough energy for Bitcoin and AI?
Infrastructure alone in the data center world is 12 million a megawatt. The amount of compute that is deployed today versus what will be deployed in five years, it's never getting shut off. And one word of warning from an investment perspective.
All right.
Why is mining hardware cheaper than ever?
You run a very interesting business that has a lot of components and inputs.
What is the future of data centers and energy?
You have hardware, you have energy, you've got Bitcoin, you've got hash rate. I mean, you've got a lot of stuff going on that you've got to figure out. How the hell do I navigate all this stuff? Maybe a great place to start.
How should investors think about Bitcoin, AI, and energy?
Let's just start with the energy. Everywhere that I read online, energy is not going to be enough availability for what we need because of AI and Bitcoin. Is that true?
Yeah, I think if you look at the big demand right now for energy is from obviously the HPCAI sector. And they need energy that is on now and not on in 2029.
What is the biggest risk in infrastructure?
And if you're trying to get access to 500 megawatts of power and you get in a queue, you're not going to get it anytime soon. So the hyperscalers are now very focused, as are the neoclouds, on looking at, okay, I don't need a one gigawatt data center. I need anything north of 100 megawatts, which has the ability to grow, and I need the power to be on already, because there are two issues that impact a hyperscaler's ability to bring capacity online, and realize the timing of when they bring their site online is more important than when it costs them to bring it online. because it's all about a capacity war. Who has GPUs running?
How are Bitcoin miners adapting to energy constraints?
It's not about necessarily the specific type of GPU, but it's who has stuff running, because the more stuff you have running, the smarter your model is, the more you can do, right? So permitting is the second problem. So you may have the ability to take powered land and build a hyperscaler site on it. But if that county has a moratorium, won't allow you to build a big hyperscaler center. It's an issue. And I think what you're going to see now is a huge amount of innovation around what defines a data center and how they're built. That is going to make it much more attractive for hyperscalers to talk to people like us who have, you know, over gigawatt of power that's turned on and ready to go.
So a couple of things. Talk about how much power you guys have today. How much is Bitcoin mining versus turned on but not being used?
What impact do falling mining hardware costs have on the industry?
So then how much is in development?
So we have one point one gigawatts of power that's operating as Bitcoin mining today. We have another 700 megawatts of power that is used. unenergized, if you would, that is expansion capacity for that. And we have another couple of gigawatts of power in the pipeline behind that. A lot of our growth for Bitcoin mining is actually targeted internationally. And the reason why is a in the US to get 100 megawatts of power, I have to find a hyperscaler or somebody who's trying to get it to a hyperscaler. But internationally, there is much less demand for AI and hyperscaler capacity. You can go in lots of countries in the Middle East, you can go in countries in Europe, and a big site for them for AI is 40 megawatts.
And so you have power dislocation economics happening around the world, where you have places like Saudi Arabia, where they have built huge amounts of power infrastructure specifically to generate hydrogen. And the hydrogen market isn't developing. And so you have all this renewable energy that's available, but isn't connected to a grid to be sold. And there isn't a city anywhere nearby that is available that they now want to monetize. You have countries like France, where 66% of the energy is nuclear. The rest is mostly renewable. And the capacity of the nuclear power plants is running below 70%. And so they have way excess energy. But there it's a permanent issue. But so I think you look at the business that we or our peers are in, and I think you're going to see most of the U.S.
miners will do some portion, if not all, conversion towards AIHPC.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:05
2
Is there enough energy for Bitcoin and AI?
0:05–0:20
3
Why is mining hardware cheaper than ever?
0:20–0:23
4
What is the future of data centers and energy?
0:23–0:32
5
How should investors think about Bitcoin, AI, and energy?
0:32–0:58
6
What is the biggest risk in infrastructure?
0:58–1:41
7
How are Bitcoin miners adapting to energy constraints?
1:41–2:32
8
What impact do falling mining hardware costs have on the industry?
2:32–18:52
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The Pomp Podcast
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