The Prancing Pony Podcast
415 – Saruman’s OPSEC Problem: Unfinished Tales with Dr. Bret Devereaux
31 May 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Unpretentious but not unserious, and I gotta say, that sounds just like us. Andrew and Craig are just two old friends trying to learn things they should already know by now. It's like a book club where you don't have to read the books, but you still can. Recent episodes include Project Hail Mary by Anthony Weir, Heated Rivalry by Rachel Reed, and Dune by Frank Herbert.
And yes, they have read The Lord of the Rings, too. Check out episodes 134 to 136 for that. Subscribe now so you don't miss another episode of Overdue airing every Monday. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts. For more information, head to OverduePodcast.com.
Good evening, little masters, and welcome to episode 415 of the Prancing Pony podcast, where we don't know our thangal from our dinner knife.
And neither of us can shoot with these massive steel bows. Folks, pull up a chair in the common room and join us. I am Don Marshall, the obscure Lord of the Rings facts guy, and I am here with the man of the West who thinks we just took the wrong road, Alan Sisto.
Well, you know, shortcuts lead to long delays or just slaughter and death in this case.
But folks, join us as we try to pull everything together after the disaster of the Gladden Fields and bring back a friend of the podcast who's not only become our go-to expert for all things military and Middle Earth, but who now holds the record, and I doubt it'll ever be broken, for the longest extemporaneous talk at a PPP moot.
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Chapter 2: What is the significance of Númenórean naval power in Middle-earth?
So this is roughly 800, 900 years after Aldarion's first voyages back to Middle-earth, I should say. And in the text, we read, "...gathering a great force, Sauron moved over Calanardhon," that's Rohan for the rest of you folks, "...to the invasion of Eriador in the year 1695.
When news of this reached Gil-galad, he sent out a force under Elrond Half-Elven, but Elrond had far to go, and Sauron turned north and made it once for Eregion. The scouts and vanguard of Sauron's host were already approaching when Celeborn made a sortie and drove them back."
But though he was able to join his force to that of Elrond, they could not return to Eregion, for Sauron's host was far greater than theirs, great enough both to hold them off and closely to invest Eregion. Questions from this. There's a few of them. One, it's about 450 miles from Lindon to Eregion, so how long does it take Elrond's force to get there?
Second question is going to be a little harder because there's not a lot of specific data as to where they were when the news got to Gil-galad, but how long might it have taken Sauron to arrive in Eregion once news reached Gil-galad?
And then for those of us who might not be as familiar with some of those terms, help us understand what Tolkien's saying when Celeborn made the sortie to drive back the Vanguard and why they couldn't go back. I'm assuming when they talk about closely investing at Region, it has nothing to do with stocks and bonds.
No, it is not a financial move. To begin with, in terms of the timeline, the rule of thumb when you're thinking about armies moving, infantry moving in large bodies, you want to think normally around 10 miles per day. So you're looking at something like a month and a half once the force is fully mobilized. Obviously, getting the force together might have also taken time.
So even once Gil-galad gets news, it could have taken a couple of months to get Elrond's force to where it needs to go. Now, I will note, right, there's some trickiness here with the timelines, because on the one hand, the Unfinished Tales timeline doesn't give us a lot of dates. It just sort of presents events in sequence, and you don't get a sense of really how long this is all taking.
What I think is significant is if you bounce to the appendices, open war begins in 1693, right? Second Age. The invasion itself is in 1695, and Eregion falls in 1697. At least that's when Celebrimbor is killed, right, which is the final fall of the city, which suggests that this is a somewhat more extended thing. But you can see the trouble that that's going to create for Gil-galad.
Because you can imagine, okay, the war opens in 1693, but with the way that pre-modern armies are going to wage war, That might not be Sauron's full host marching into Eregion. It's campaigns of raiding and agricultural destruction. We raid your farms and outlying settlements. You have to withdraw from those. That increases our ability to maneuver and so on.
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Chapter 3: How did Aldarion contribute to the naval capabilities of Númenor?
Okay.
So like fully surrounding it. Right. Completely so that nobody can get in or out.
Yeah. And the usual way to do this is what's called circumvallation, a Latin phrase that just means walling around, which is to say that you build a line of defensive works all the way around the perimeter of the target. And it's interesting, of course, the sieges, really assaults that we get in the Lord of the Rings happen so rapidly that this isn't necessary. They're storming attacks.
One very poorly prepared, one very well prepared. But either way, like neither army has the logistics to sit around and wait two years. No. That's not in their operational plan. But here, Sauron has evidently arrived understanding that, like, I'm not going to take this place quickly. One imagines he's been preparing this for a long time, right? The One Ring is forged in Second Age 1600.
He spent 90 years getting into position for this. presumably securing his control of what will eventually be Rohan, but probably also laying the logistics groundwork and everything else for his attack into Auregion. So he's prepared to sit outside for two years if it takes that long. And again, the idea of sieges taking that long is not wild.
The Romans are sieging individual settlements in Sicily that long during the First Punic War. The Third Punic War, which basically is just the siege of Carthage, lasts three years. So often, if a siege lasts that long, it's because you're struggling to fully invest the target, and they're still getting supplies through somehow. Because most cities don't have three years of grain sitting around.
No.
But sieges can take a really long time, especially if you're being forced to wait out an enemy or forced to very slowly degrade their defenses. So what you're going to do when you show up, you're going to circumvolate the target. You're going to build a line of defenses, often just literally building a second wall outside of their first wall, but facing inward.
But then Sauron's also got to be worried about Elrond and now Celeborn, who are behind him. Because Celeborn has sortied out, so he's made a kind of an attack. And a sortie is an attack where you don't intend to stick around after it's done.
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Chapter 4: What role did operational security play in Saruman's strategy?
There are defenders inside the city. They'll last for a long time. I want to stay out in the open where I can maybe get around and cause some mischief. He loops up with Elrond. Sauron knows this has happened. So presumably, like we're told, he has a strong enough host to also block out Elrond.
We're not told, but what I think we should assume he's doing here is contravelation, where now having built a wall facing inward, you form your army into a donut with a second wall facing outward.
One of the really famous examples of this is Julius Caesar's Siege of Alessia, where he's got Vercingetorix's army in this hilltop fortress, and so he builds a Roman defensive line around the base of it, as you do. Mm-hmm. The Romans love themselves some field fortifications.
And then because Vercingetorix has gotten messengers out to call for help and he knows a whole bunch more Gauls are going to show up behind him, he builds a complete second line of defenses facing outward to prepare for their arrival.
Chapter 5: What logistical challenges did Isildur face in his journey?
And they end up trying to break through his forces and failing. And this leads to Caesar winning as he usually does. But so you end up with two complete lines of fortifications facing in opposite directions and your army arranged as kind of a donut. Now, that's obviously something of a perilous situation to be in. That's a lot of ground for your army to cover.
You really do want some superiority in numbers or quality or ideally both to do that. But what we're told is essentially Sauron's army is so big that he has enough forces to face in and face out at the same time. And Elrond, you know, is just isn't given an opportunity to break in, which really speaks to just how dramatic the difference in forces is.
Which is, of course, I think confirmed to us that by how long it takes Numenor to show up. And so what they think is necessary to make a difference.
And we're starting to get to that. Doctor, one more question, or I guess set of questions from Galadriel and Celeborn. Here's that passage we're going to focus on. As soon as Gil-galad began to fear that Sauron would come with open war into Eriador, he sent messages to Numenor. And on the shores of Lindon, the Numenoreans began to build up a force and supplies for war.
In 1695, when Sauron invaded Eriador, Gil-galad called on Numenor for aid. Then Tar-Manastir the king sent out a great navy, but it was delayed and did not reach the coast of Middle-earth until the year 1700. So, questions from this. What would the buildup of forces and supplies by the Numenoreans have included for something like this?
Since it's the Navy that comes later, are they building up an infantry force or something like that? What would those supplies be? Because obviously they can't take food indefinitely. So is it weapons and armor? Is it wagons? Is it horses? And then finally, why would it take a Navy five years to arrive from Numenore?
Yeah, five years is a really long time.
Especially if you're an elf in Eregion.
I would say, as a historian, normally if I would see a lag like that of five years, my immediate question would be, what else is going on? Normally, if you see that kind of a lag, you're going to poke your sources and find out, oh, there was a major revolt happening over here that required more immediate attention. For Numenor, that seems unlikely to be an issue.
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Chapter 6: What military formations were discussed in the context of Isildur's battle?
Overdue is a podcast about the books you've been meaning to read. I know I've got a stack. Join Andrew and Craig each week as they tackle a new title from their to-read list. From classic literature to obscure plays, they'll read it all one overdue book at a time. Unpretentious but not unserious, and I gotta say, that sounds just like us.
Andrew and Craig are just two old friends trying to learn things they should already know by now. It's like a book club where you don't have to read the books, but you still can. Recent episodes include Project Hail Mary by Anthony Weir, Heated Rivalry by Rachel Reed, and Dune by Frank Herbert. And yes, they have read The Lord of the Rings, too. Check out episodes 134 to 136 for that.
Subscribe now so you don't miss another episode of Overdue airing every Monday. Find it wherever you listen to podcasts. For more information, head to OverduePodcast.com. Hi, folks.
Let me see if I can sum up Midnight Burger in about 25 seconds. Really, big monster? Zero irony. Pardon me, Gloria. Might my husband and I have a word? The radio is talking to me. So this is how it ends. Eaten by wolves in space. There's a pocket dimension in the deep freeze. This is the stupidest dystopia we've ever been to. What the hell is that?
Because you're having a cigarette in 415 million BC. Where are we? Space. Can you narrow that down? The bad part? Ava. Yeah, that didn't work at all. At the nexus of all things, there is a diner. Look for Midnight Burger on your favorite podcasting app or just go to weopenat6.com.
soon we'll get back to more with brett and more recent questions we've saved up for him but before we do i want to take a minute to thank the amazing community that has grown up around this show after all there is a lot more talk going on at the prancing pony podcast than just us the ppp really does have a warm and welcoming listener community
If you've got questions or you just want to talk about how much you love Middle Earth, be sure to check out our Common Room on Facebook and across all social media. On Facebook, just look for The Prancing Pony Podcast. Yeah, there's a page, but you're going to want to join the group for that great fan community.
That's right. Now on every social media platform besides Facebook, we're simply at Prancing Pony Pod. You can even find our subreddit at r slash Prancing Pony Pod. And folks, please check out my daily show, Today's Tolkien Times on YouTube and all your favorite podcast apps. That's where you can get your daily Middle Earth fix with everything from Middle Earth Map Mondays to Word Nerd Wednesdays.
Be sure to watch or listen at youtube.com slash at Prancing Pony Pod. All right, Don, we got some more questions, don't we? We do, we do.
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of the Numenorean archery technology in battle?
So Saruman's problem, almost invariably, is that he makes these intricate clockwork plans that require every component element to succeed in order for the plan to have any chance at success. And in the event, almost everything goes wrong. But when you actually piece them apart, any component part that went wrong is
would cause a huge problem what's striking is that in in the hunt for the ring in unfinished tales we get a little bit of insight that we don't get from the from the lord of the rings specifically that even when the before the witch king even knows where the shire is yeah sauron is aware that saruman is betraying him which puts the failure point for saruman's plans really early Yeah, it does.
And speaks to this. And just to sort of back up on this, Saruman's fundamental problem is having betrayed both the Free Peoples and Sauron, he is in a position where at best it is get the ring or die. Yeah. Because if he doesn't get the ring, he's not militarily strong enough to prevail against Rohan and Gondor on his own or to prevail against Sauron on his own. And so he either gets the ring.
And then the other part I have in the decision trees and the ring works like he thinks it does, which is a big, Oh, big if, yeah, big if, I mean, this is, this is right. Saruman has, you know, his 10 is, is 10,000 ish orcs, orcs and, and wild men. And what I would, what I would know is that we see Sauron respond exactly to the problem of 9,000 men at arms, uh,
plus Gandalf, so plus Amaya, and then Aragorn, who he thinks has the ring.
Yeah.
And his response is to play with them before springing the trap. The one being in the story who knows how the one ring works does not think 9,000 men plus one ring is enough.
And so this is – I know that there's debate amongst the community on this point, but I actually think all these characters we see who imagine – and we see Gandalf think this way and Saruman think this way and Galadriel think this way, the goodbye at the ring – And the wise characters are like, it would tempt me, and I should not do that. But they're like, but I'd probably win, right?
I think they're all wrong. I think they're all wrong. I do not think the one ring plus 10,000 guys is enough to win. And the reason I think that is that Sauron is the only person in a position to know the answer to this equation, and he doesn't think it's remotely close. He is not even a little bit threatened by Aragorn's advance. He does nothing to harry him as he advanced.
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Chapter 8: How does the discussion connect historical military tactics to Tolkien's narratives?
How late do you preserve your decision-making ability? And Saruman, as a weaker third power, attempting to navigate two stronger powers, the free people on one side and Saruman on the other, optionality is really important. It's unlikely that he's going to be able to remain fully independent, so you want to preserve your ability to leap one way or the other as long as you can.
Saruman instead, out of, I think, just raw hubris and ego, commits almost immediately to alienating both. And it's remarkable how early he does this. Because in that passage, by the time he is talking to the Witch King, at this point, has Frodo even left the Shire yet? I don't think he has.
No, he has not.
Saruman is already committed. He is already at that point betrayed Sauron and Sauron knows. And given that Saruman does not come to talk to the witch king in person, Saruman suspects Sauron knows. So they are both kayfabing their friendship at this point. But they're both pretending and they both know they're pretending. And at the same time, he imprisoned Gandalf and Gandalf escaped.
So the wise of the free peoples also know that.
he is committed in both directions he can keep Rohan out of the fight for a while but if like the free peoples win then eventually Elrond or Galadriel or Aragorn or somebody Denethor who somebody is going to roll up yeah and any one of those people can wreck his army and and take his like because you know Rohan is not like the strongest power here and he will fail to defeat them Yes.
So he is by far the weakest. And so he is a weak power behaving like a strong power. And it goes predictably badly for him.
Yes, it would.
And I want to stress, I don't think this is like plot holes. I think this is Tolkien writing very kind of clearly about a certain kind of personality and the ways that it can go wrong, both in the sense that Saruman has a lot of pride, just overwhelming pride. It comes up very clearly when he speaks to Gandalf and especially when he speaks to Theoden. Oh, yeah.
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