The President's Daily Brief
December 12th, 2025: Russia’s Shadow Fleet Hit Again & NATO Sounds The Alarm
12 Dec 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Look at that. We are racing through this month towards Christmas. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Ukraine keeps a pressure on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers. A fresh naval drone strike hits another tanker, tightening the squeeze on Moscow's wartime oil profits. We'll explain what happened.
Later in the show, an extraordinary extraction operation at sea will tell you how a private American team pulled off a secret 15-hour mission to get Maria Corina Machado out of Venezuela and safely on her way to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. Plus, a warning from NATO's chief, Mark Rutte, tells member states to brace for the possibility that Russia could target the alliance within five years.
And in today's back of the brief, a major show of force in East Asia. U.S. nuclear-capable bombers join Japanese fighter jets over the Sea of Japan after China and Russia conducted their own drills nearby. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.
We've been tracking Ukraine's campaign against Russia's so-called shadow fleet, that network of tankers Moscow uses to quietly move sanctioned oil around the world. And this week, there's another major development. Ukraine has crippled yet another one of those vessels, the third tanker hit in recent weeks.
According to reports, Ukraine's security service, that would be the SBU, launched the attack in the Black Sea using its now-famous Seababy naval drones. If you haven't seen the video, here's what it shows. A drone racing over choppy water at high speed, its camera locked forward as it closes in on a large tanker in the distance.
It quickly closes the gap and then the explosion as the drone hits the target. Ukrainian officials say the strike hit exactly where they intended, damaging the tanker and forcing it out of service. The vessel targeted is part of Russia's Shadow Fleet, those tankers operating under obscure ownership, questionable registration, and often with their tracking systems turned off.
They exist for one purpose, to move Russian oil in ways that evade Western sanctions. And that shipment network is critical for Moscow. It's a financial lifeline. Without it, the Kremlin has a much harder time keeping oil flowing and bringing in revenue and ultimately funding its war.
This latest strike follows two similar attacks over the past few weeks that we covered here, meaning Ukraine has now damaged or disabled at least three of these covert tankers. And Kiev's strategy is becoming clearer. They're hitting the ships that keep Russia's economy running. And the effects, well, they're beginning to show.
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Chapter 2: How is Ukraine intensifying its campaign against Russia's shadow fleet?
And these hits to the shadow fleet, combined with the rising cost and risk of moving Russian oil, appear to be contributing to that financial squeeze. It's fairly straightforward.
Ukraine strikes the tankers, insurers jack up prices, shippers hesitate or demand higher premiums, Russia must offer steeper discounts to keep the oil flowing, and little by little, the Kremlin's wartime revenues shrink. This is asymmetric warfare at sea, targeting the economic arteries instead of the warships. And it's something that we'll continue tracking.
Coming up next, how a private American team pulled off a secret 15-hour sea rescue of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, and why NATO's chief is warning allies that Russia could target the alliance within five years. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, we've all seen those scary ads, right, about owing money to the IRS, basically trying to frighten you into calling.
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Chapter 3: What happened during the dramatic rescue of María Corina Machado?
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A new twist in the ongoing saga surrounding Venezuela. Almost 16 hours under the cover of rough nighttime seas, a private American rescue team extracted Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from the country to reunite her with family and to collect her Nobel Peace Prize in Norway. The man leading the team was Brian Stern, a U.S.
Special Forces veteran and the head of the Gray Bull Rescue Foundation. As he tells it, the waves were high enough to throw off radar, useful for staying hidden, of course, but punishing for everyone on board. He told CBS News, quote, no one was enjoying that ride, especially Maria. The water may have been, quote, ideal for us, but it was also, quote, certainly not what you would want to be on.
Machado's team confirmed to CBS News that the mission began Tuesday after she set foot in Norway yesterday. Stern said that it became one of the toughest missions he's ever run, notable given the Gray Bull has orchestrated hundreds over the years, and the timing made everything even riskier.
As we've discussed here on the PDB, Machado had been hiding for nearly a year, trying to stay ahead of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro's regime, which has brutally cracked down, of course, on protesters advocating for his ouster.
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Chapter 4: What warning did NATO's chief issue regarding potential Russian aggression?
The optics were even more challenging, as his regime has taken on an especially defensive posture as the U.S. steps up its military presence offshore. Stern said, quote, she has a very large target on her back. He pointed to her visibility across Venezuela, noting billboards with her face all over the country and supporters holding demonstrations in her name.
Her profile, he said, made the operation uniquely dangerous. Graybull took charge of both the land and maritime phases, though Stern wouldn't go into detail about the ground portion, saying it would put people still in Venezuela at risk. Once Machado was safely on the move, the team got her to the coastline and onto a boat bound for a rendezvous point somewhere in the Caribbean.
that's where sterne met her for what turned into the riskiest portion of the operation an hour's long run on dark seas with almost no visibility ending at the location where she would later board a flight to oslo by then everyone of course was soaked cold and exhausted
As for the makeup of the team involved in the mission, it consisted of about, reportedly, two dozen people, with many others supporting behind the scenes through translation and logistics, some without even realizing that they were part of it. The plan itself reportedly came together in just four days. Stern also made a point of saying the mission was funded entirely by private donors.
He said, quote, the U.S. government did not contribute a single penny to the operation, though he acknowledged, quote, unofficial collaboration with the military to avoid any accidental encounters at sea. As for rumors circulating about the mission, Stern pushed back that he was a private extraction specialist supposedly hired by the Trump administration who met Machado in Curacao.
Now, I want to point out that the island had become the focus of speculation since the mission's success, mainly because it's a common transit point for Venezuelan dissidents and hosts U.S.
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Chapter 5: How are U.S. bombers and Japanese jets demonstrating military strength in East Asia?
security operations, making it a believable Caribbean waypoint for an escape. But Stern said none of it was true. He said, quote, I've never been hired by Trump. I met up with Machado somewhere else. And when it came to Machado arriving in Norway to accept her Nobel Peace Prize, well, she was a bit too late to attend the ceremony, but her daughter accepted the award on her behalf.
Despite all this effort, Machado says she wants to return to Venezuela to continue opposition efforts on the ground. Stern didn't sugarcoat his response of admiration for her, saying, quote, they call her the Iron Lady for a reason. I told her, don't go back, end quote. So Machado's potential return to Venezuela promises to be anything but smooth sailing. Okay, shifting gears.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivered what sounded less like a policy update and more like an alarm, warning allies that Russia could be ready to strike NATO territory within five years. Rutte stressed that the alliance is nowhere near the level of readiness that Moscow's trajectory now demands. Speaking in Berlin this week, Ruta didn't sugarcoat his message.
Chapter 6: What are the implications of Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil tankers?
He made clear to those gathered, and effectively to the entire alliance, that Europe is already in the danger zone. The Secretary General said, quote, We are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm's way, arguing that the alliance must prepare for a scale of conflict that has not been seen since the eras their grandparents lived through.
In his view, Russia's accelerated war economy isn't an abstract warning, it's a countdown. And that countdown is why Ruta keeps drilling down on urgency. Yes, he welcomes the pledge by NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, he said, but he admits frustration with that pace and timeline.
Ruta said the alliance simply doesn't have that kind of time and pushed for a full shift to, quote, wartime mindset. He warned that too many capitals are slipping into quiet complacency. Ruta said, quote, this is not the time for self-congratulation. Too many believe that time is on our side. It is not. The time for action is now, end quote.
In an effort to further drive home why he believes Europe cannot afford delay, Ruta pointed to the staggering casualties that Russia has already suffered. He claimed more than one million Russian troops have been killed since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a figure we've previously discussed here on the PDB.
which is a cost that Ruta said just shows how far Russian President Putin is willing to go to achieve his war aims. The Secretary General said, quote, Putin is paying for his pride with the blood of his own people, and if he's prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us? Now, I want to point out that Ruta's warning didn't stop at Moscow's doorstep.
He set his sights on China as well, saying outright that Russia's war machine would collapse without Beijing's support. Ruta said, quote, China is Russia's lifeline. Without China's support, Russia could not continue to wage this war, pointing to the roughly 80% of critical electronic components in Russian drones and weapons systems that originate in China.
Well, I can't spot the lie in Ruta's comments regarding China. Taken together, Ruta's message is unmistakable. NATO's window to prepare for war, he says, is shrinking. Russia's threat trajectory is rising, and the cost of underestimating Moscow now would be far greater than anything Europe has faced in generations. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, Tokyo reveals that U.S.
bombers flew alongside Japanese jets in a coordinated show of strength following joint China-Russia military exercises in the same region. I'll have those details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, PDB listeners know that I am constantly on the road. I'm always traveling, it seems. I know, I know. You've probably noticed by all the different hotel room backdrops on the PDB.
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