March 11th, 2026: Coup Inside Iran? The IRGC Seizes Power In Tehran & France Deploys Warships To Middle East
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It's Wednesday, the 11th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And I know you'll find this hard to believe, but yes, I'm still on the road. One day, you know, the PDB production team will produce a fine-looking, leather-bound coffee table book featuring all the hotel room backdrops that we've had over the years. It's going to be a collector's item. Alright, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's leadership may survive this war, but the power structure inside the country could be changing. We'll take a look at how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may be using this moment to tighten its grip on the regime. Later in the show, French President Emmanuel Macron orders a major naval deployment to the Middle East, sending 10 warships to the region to potentially help escort commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Plus, it's quiet. Too quiet. The skies around Taiwan have suddenly gone quiet after China unexpectedly suspended its daily military flights near and around the island. And in today's Back of the Brief, investigators uncover new evidence in the attempted bombing during a New York City protest, as the FBI searches a storage unit tied to what authorities say was an ISIS-inspired plot. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Yesterday, we brought you the story of the classified U.S. intelligence assessment that poured a bit of cold water on one of the biggest questions surrounding the war with Iran, whether the conflict could actually topple the regime in Tehran. According to that assessment, the answer, at least for now, appears to be no.
Despite the pressure of war, the Islamic Republic still maintains powerful internal security forces, entrenched political institutions, and enough control over the population to keep the system intact. But even if that assessment proves correct, if the regime survives, there's another question worth asking. Will the regime that emerges from this war look the same? Because while the clerical leadership of the Islamic Republic may remain in place, the real balance of power inside Iran may be shifting, and it may be shifting decisively toward the country's most powerful institution. That would be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. Now, for years, the IRGC has been the single most powerful military, political, and economic force inside Iran.
It was originally created after the 1979 revolution as a parallel military force meant to protect the regime and its revolutionary ideology. But the organization has grown far beyond its original mission. Today, the IRGC is not just a military force. It's an economic empire, an intelligence apparatus, and a political power center all rolled into one. Its influence stretches across Iran's missile programs, intelligence services, internal security operations, and large portions of the country's conventional military forces. The IRGC also controls or influences vast sectors of Iran's economy, from construction firms and energy projects to banking and telecommunications and major commercial enterprises.
The IRGC's ideology over time seems to have become fixated on making money and lining pockets. In many ways, it already functions as a state within a state, and the current war may be giving it the opportunity to take that influence even further. What we may be witnessing is the acceleration of something that has been quietly unfolding inside Iran for decades, a gradual consolidation of power by the IRGC. Now, some analysts have even described the process as a kind of soft coup, where the Revolutionary Guard Corps slowly transforms the system from within, tightening its grip on the country's political and security institutions while leaving the outward structure of the Islamic Republic intact.
along with the outward appearance that the clerics are still in charge. And recent developments surrounding Iran's leadership succession may offer a glimpse of how that process is playing out. Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's clerical establishment quickly moved to replace him, ultimately naming his son, Moshtaba Khamenei, as the next Supreme Leader.
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