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The President's Daily Brief

October 16th, 2025: Putin SNUBBED By Arab Leaders & John Bolton Indictment Looms

16 Oct 2025

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 24.672 Mike Baker

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37.055 - 38.98 Mike Baker

It's Thursday, the 16th of October.

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Chapter 2: Why was Vladimir Putin snubbed by Arab leaders at the Russia-Arab World Summit?

39.141 - 58.85 Mike Baker

Look at that. Well into the month of October, basically halfway through, frankly. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage and still somewhere on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, can I get a sad trombone for Vladimir Putin?

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59.19 - 76.36 Mike Baker

His big Russia Arab World Summit was meant to showcase Moscow's power and prove that they're not isolated on the world stage. But almost no one showed up to the party. Wah, wah. We'll break down what that says about Russia's fading influence in the Middle East.

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76.627 - 98.449 Mike Baker

Later in the show, Pakistan and the Taliban government in Afghanistan have agreed to a short ceasefire after deadly cross-border clashes and airstrikes. Plus, the latest on John Bolton. Remember him and his amazing mustache? A grand jury is expected to charge the former National Security Advisor this week for allegedly mishandling classified documents.

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98.429 - 124.183 Mike Baker

And in today's back of the brief, Meta removes a Facebook group used to, quote, dox and target ICE agents in Chicago following a Justice Department request. It would be nice to live in a world where we still don't know what the verb doxing means. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Guess who's coming to dinner? Well, not that many folks, if you're Vladimir Putin.

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124.764 - 140.923 Mike Baker

It was a humbling week for Russia's leader on the world stage, and another clear indication that Russia's influence in the Middle East is slipping. Back in April, the Kremlin announced plans for what it called the Russia Arab World Summit. That sounds rather grand, doesn't it?

140.903 - 159.126 Mike Baker

It was supposed to be Putin's big diplomatic comeback, a high-profile gathering meant to showcase that Moscow still matters in a region increasingly focused on US leadership. For months, the Kremlin worked the phones, sending out invitations, lining up photo ops, blowing up balloons.

159.807 - 178.429 Mike Baker

The idea was to fill a conference hall in Moscow with presidents and prime ministers and kings from across the Arab world. Proof that Russia hadn't been isolated by Western sanctions or distracted by the war in Ukraine. But there was one problem. Nobody, well, almost nobody, wanted to go.

178.49 - 201.518 Mike Baker

As the summit date approached, the Kremlin realized that nearly every major Arab leader declined the invitation. Sorry, we're busy that night. No Saudi Arabia, no Egypt, no Jordan, no UAE. The only confirmations came from Syria's new president, Ahmed al-Sharah. And come on, that guy will go to any party. And the head of the Arab League. That's it.

202.219 - 228.825 Mike Baker

So rather than face the optics of an empty conference hall, Putin canceled the event, or as he put it, postponed it. Officially, the Kremlin claimed that he did it to avoid, quote, interfering with President Trump's Gaza peace summit taking place in Egypt. But few are buying that explanation because it's nonsense. The reality is pretty simple. Putin threw a party and nobody wanted to go.

Chapter 3: What does the ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and the Taliban signify?

389.006 - 408.595 Mike Baker

But the Ukraine war has wrecked that strategy. Sanctions have gutted Russia's economy, its weapons exports have plummeted, and its diplomatic bandwidth is stretched thin. Meanwhile, the U.S. has reclaimed its role as the key player in the Middle East, something even Moscow's former partners now quietly admit.

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408.575 - 430.528 Mike Baker

It seems that Putin's balancing act between Israel, Iran, and the Arab states has finally collapsed. By backing Iran and embracing Hamas rhetorically, he alienated Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, who, according to Ukrainian officials, recently agreed to transfer a Patriot missile system to Kiev. That's another self-inflicted wound for the Kremlin.

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Losing a working relationship, it spent decades cultivating. Russia's frustration has started to show.

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Chapter 4: What are the implications of John Bolton's potential indictment?

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Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently said Moscow would, quote, not impose its services on Middle East peace efforts. That's a diplomatic way of admitting that no one's asking for your services, Sergei. Dmitry Medvedev, the hawkish former president and chief nuclear saber rattler, and also dutiful minion to Putin, went further, calling Trump's peace deal meaningless and predicting more war.

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463.672 - 483.596 Mike Baker

Well, the louder Russia complains, the more irrelevant it sounds. And this isn't just about the Middle East. Across the broader region, from Central Asia to the Caucasus, countries that once saw Moscow as their anchor are drifting away. Armenia and Azerbaijan, for example, have both turned toward Washington.

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484.056 - 507.112 Mike Baker

The Trump recently hosted their leaders at the White House to finalize a peace deal that gives the U.S. exclusive rights to develop a new trade corridor linking the two nations. That would have been unthinkable a few years ago, when Russia was the dominant power in that neighborhood. The pattern is clear. Moscow's global reach is shrinking, its influence fading, and its prestige is collapsing.

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507.933 - 511.259 Mike Baker

So yes, Putin threw a party, and nobody came.

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Chapter 5: How does the closure of the Facebook group targeting ICE agents reflect on social media policies?

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But the deeper story is that he's lost his audience altogether. All right, coming up next, Pakistan and the Taliban agree to a short ceasefire after deadly clashes. And John Bolton and his mustache are now expected to be indicted over classified documents. I'll be right back. Mike Baker here, host of the PDB and also known far and wide as a gourmand.

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538.022 - 557.154 Mike Baker

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557.574 - 576.737 Mike Baker

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576.717 - 594.81 Mike Baker

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608.209 - 618.503 Unknown

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618.82 - 635.463 Mike Baker

After days of deadly gunfire across their disputed border, Afghanistan's Taliban government and Pakistan agreed yesterday to a 48-hour ceasefire. Everybody's getting in on the ceasefire action. It's a brief pause in one of the world's most volatile frontier rivalries.

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Both sides claim that the other capital requested the truce in an effort to not appear weak, which took effect just hours after Islamabad reportedly carried out airstrikes in Kabul

Chapter 6: What factors contributed to Russia's declining influence in the Middle East?

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and across the southern border province of Kandahar. Taliban officials accused Pakistan of killing a dozen civilians and wounding more than 100. Pakistan's military, meanwhile, boasted it eliminated, quote, 15 to 20 Afghan Taliban and injured many more.

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663.876 - 681.803 Mike Baker

Now, much like our coverage from earlier this week, I want to point out that neither claim from Islamabad or Kabul could be independently verified. As we've been tracking, the current spiral began last week after a string of explosions in Afghanistan that Kabul blamed squarely on Pakistan.

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Islamabad denied the involvement and countered that the Afghan Taliban allowed its Pakistani offshoot, the TTP, to launch cross-border attacks with impunity. The weekend saw the fighting reach its deadliest point in years. Kabul claimed to have killed 58 Pakistani troops. Islamabad said the Taliban had lost 200 men. Again, both figures are impossible to confirm.

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The clashes briefly subsided, then reignited Tuesday when each capital accused the other of breaking the law. Along Pakistan's northwestern frontier, military officials said their forces had killed up to 30 Taliban and Pakistani Taliban fighters. By Wednesday, explosions rattled Kabul and Kandahar.

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727.462 - 749.318 Mike Baker

As the ceasefire took effect and fighting subsided, a Taliban spokesman said its forces were ordered to observe the ceasefire, quote, as long as no one commits aggression. But the battle quickly shifted to online, where government officials traded unverified drone footage, air raid clips and videos in a digital tug of war over the truth.

749.855 - 766.598 Mike Baker

Residents along the volatile border described scenes of panic and destruction prior to the ceasefire. One Afghan resident of Spinboldak, just a kilometer from the border, told the BBC, quote, "...very heavy clashes continued for almost five hours, with drones and jets flying overhead."

767.337 - 789.415 Mike Baker

A doctor on the Afghanistan side of the disputed border reported, quote, seven bodies and 36 injured brought into the hospital, including women and children. Taliban officials added that hundreds of families fled their homes, warning that the Afghan government remains, unquote, high alert. The violence has drawn concern from global powers. China and Russia both called for restraint this week.

789.435 - 813.544 Mike Baker

Well, that should do it. Meanwhile, President Trump weighed in, offering to mediate, saying that, quote, both sides need to stop the fighting and start talking. Now, whether this truce holds or simply marks another lull before the next barrage remains to be seen. For now, it has paused the bloodiest confrontation between the two neighbors since the Taliban returned to power back in 2021.

814.587 - 828.426 Mike Baker

Okay, shifting to the U.S., a federal grand jury met Wednesday to consider charges against former National Security Advisor John Bolton. He's accused of mishandling classified materials through a private email server.

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