PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 12th, 2026: Fuel Cutoff Pushes Cuba Toward Collapse & El Paso Airspace Dispute
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
It's Thursday, the 12th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.
What is the current fuel crisis facing Cuba?
First up, Cuba is running out of fuel. Airlines can't refuel, blackouts are spreading, and analysts warn the island could go dark by April. The government says it won't bend, but the country itself may be nearing collapse. I'll have the details. Later in the show, an update on that airspace shutdown over El Paso. Authorities are now disputing what actually caused Tuesday's disruption. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We've been tracking the escalating pressure campaign on Cuba's oil supplies for weeks now, and today we're beginning to see what that actually looks like on the ground. According to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the oil blockade appears to be grinding the country to a halt.
Fuel is running out, flights are being canceled, hotels and businesses are closing, workers are being furloughed, and large portions of Havana are sitting in the dark.
How is the fuel shortage affecting tourism in Cuba?
The Journal reports that Cuba's last major oil shipment arrived on January 9th. Since then, deliveries have slowed to a trickle. As you know, Venezuela's support evaporated after the U.S. operation that removed Nicolas Maduro from power. Mexico has halted shipments under U.S. pressure, and now it appears the island is running on fumes. The fallout has reached every sector of the country's economy. Public transportation has been curtailed. Government offices are sending employees home. Schools are cutting hours.
What are the implications of Cuba's potential systemic collapse?
Blackouts are worsening. One Cuban energy analyst told reporters that if fresh supplies don't arrive soon, the country could effectively run out of oil by April. Russia, which is, of course, one of Havana's closest partners, has described the situation as, quote, Now, Cuban authorities have warned international airlines that they can no longer guarantee jet fuel on the island. In practical terms, that means carriers either suspend service or refuel elsewhere. In the coming days, Rossiya, which is Russia's state airline, will operate several outbound-only flights from Cuba to Moscow in order to return stranded Russian tourists home before halting service. Air Canada announced this week that it's suspending service altogether.
Now, tourism is one of the Cuban government's last reliable sources of hard currency. If planes can't refuel, well, tourists don't arrive. If tourists don't arrive, hotels, restaurants and retail businesses shut down. In the face of this reality, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel insists the country will endure. And historically, the regime has shown a remarkable ability to survive under pressure. But things on the streets are beginning to look grim for the average Cuban citizen. And it's somewhat difficult for a government to survive if it can't provide electricity, water, and other basic essentials to its population. People do tend to lose patience. Iran is a recent comparable case study.
What triggered the airspace shutdown over El Paso?
The Wall Street Journal details scenes of empty roads in Havana, shuttered businesses, and furloughed workers receiving only partial pay. Basic goods are becoming increasingly unaffordable. Analysts warn that if oil does not begin flowing again, the island could face its most severe energy and economic collapse in decades. Now, for those folks who are trying to draw parallels to Venezuela, meaning could Cuba's situation result in a rapid change of direction for the government, a pivot perhaps from communism to something resembling a move toward democracy, well, you're talking about apples and oranges. One is not like the other.
What are the conflicting reports regarding the cause of the airspace disruption?
There is no defined opposition in Cuba, no one or no group to replace the current leadership, no recent history of democracy or elections or freedoms. Cuba's security apparatus and intel service, well, they're omnipresent. They've got a grip on every aspect of life. The Cuban government can be pressured, sanctioned, squeezed to the edge, but orchestrating a transition to something that's good for the Cuban people is a complex, messy proposition.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:12–0:23
2
What is the current fuel crisis facing Cuba?
0:23–1:16
3
How is the fuel shortage affecting tourism in Cuba?
1:16–1:45
4
What are the implications of Cuba's potential systemic collapse?
1:45–3:14
5
What triggered the airspace shutdown over El Paso?
3:14–3:52
6
What are the conflicting reports regarding the cause of the airspace disruption?
3:52–4:50
7
How did local officials respond to the airspace shutdown?
4:50–6:03
8
What are the new developments regarding the El Paso airspace incident?
6:03–13:22
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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