The President's Daily Brief
PDB Afternoon Bulletin | January 15th, 2026: Iran Protest Momentum Slows & U.S. Cartel Pressure
15 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
It's Thursday, the 15th of January. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting suggests Iran's nationwide protest movement may possibly be losing momentum after a brutal regime crackdown and an information blackout that's obscuring, of course, what's actually happening on the ground.
Later in the show, the U.S. escalates pressure on Mexico to allow U.S. forces to target fentanyl labs as Washington weighs direct military action against cartels. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. As with everything in Iran right now, the information blackout imposed by Tehran continues to make the situation on the ground difficult to assess.
But there's some indication that the regime's repression and violent crackdown may be having its intended effect and that the immediate threat to the mullahs may be receding, at least for now. According to reporting from Reuters, people inside Iran who were reached on Wednesday and Thursday say that demonstrations appear to have abated since Monday.
Streets that were once filled with crowds are now quieter. Gunfire has diminished. Visible signs of mass protest have become harder to find. That doesn't mean that anger has dissipated or disappeared. It just means the cost of expressing it has become too high. This apparent lull follows days of brutal repression, of course, much of which we detailed earlier today.
Live fire, maimings, mass arrests, beatings, and a near-total Internet blackout designed to sever coordination and hide the scale of the violence by the regime. And as the protests appear to recede, the regime itself has begun shifting its message and softening its tone a bit. Oh, look at them. It's a kinder, gentler mullahs in IRGC.
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Chapter 2: What recent developments are impacting Iran's protest movement?
Just days ago, international outrage spiked over reports that a 26-year-old protester, Efron Soltani, was scheduled to be executed. Rights groups warned that his hanging could mark the start of mass executions aimed at crushing the movement entirely. But now, Iranian officials are walking that back, supposedly. State media claims that Soltani's execution has been called off.
Iran's foreign minister has publicly insisted that there are no plans to hang protesters today or tomorrow. Oh, look. Hey, we don't have any plans to hang protesters today or tomorrow. Tehran says it's fully in control. The regime appears to be adjusting its tactics in an effort to project calm authority after days of international scrutiny.
And, of course, an effort to say nothing to see here after killing thousands of protesters. And, of course, an effort to go back to business as usual. That shift in Tehran coincides with a noticeable change in tone from Washington.
President Trump, who had previously warned that executions of protesters could trigger serious consequences, has suggested that he's been told that killing may be easing. Oh, he's also indicated that there's no current plan for large-scale executions. That is a noticeable shift from telling the protesters on the streets that help is on its way.
Earlier statements from the White House drew a bright red line, of course. The killing of protesters by the regime would not be tolerated, it was said. Now, as Iran signals restraint, the sense of immediate escalation appears to be cooling. Because, after all, why not believe whatever the mullahs in the Revolutionary Guard Corps say?
As if all of that wasn't indication enough, the security warning level at the U.S. Al Udeid air base in Qatar has been lowered after a heightened alert was triggered on Wednesday. That suggests that the chances of a strike against Iran are easing. Having said that, the U.S. is moving a carrier group out to the Middle East. Just saying. Now, this doesn't mean the crisis is over, of course.
It means both sides may be recalibrating or one side, meaning the U.S., may simply be doing a head fake.
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Chapter 3: How has the Iranian regime responded to ongoing protests?
But here's the part that can't be lost in the fog of diplomacy and messaging. While Tehran is now claiming it won't execute protesters, something that President Trump seems ready to possibly take at face value, that's speculation, it's already executed thousands of them in the streets. That's not speculation. The absence of gallows in a public spectacle does not actually equal restraint.
The regime doesn't need to show trials anymore if fear has already done the job. Live ammunition, mass arrests, bodies on the streets, and disappearing citizens can be just as effective, often more so, than public hangings. And the Internet blackout ensures that whatever is still happening remains largely unseen.
So when officials say the protests have, quote, abated, it's worth asking what that really means. Public resistance didn't collapse because the people no longer want change. It's more likely that the consequences are becoming unbearable. The regime didn't regain any legitimacy with its violent response to the protests. It simply regained control.
History suggests that repression can't quiet streets without extinguishing resentment. Movements don't always disappear. Sometimes they go underground, and sometimes they wait, although the cycle of protests followed by brutal repressions of those protests has a depressing and exhausting history under the mullahs and the IRGC.
For now, the mullahs are claiming stability is returning to the streets, and Washington appears to be pausing. It's Groundhog Day for the opposition to the regime. All right, coming up next, the US pushes Mexico to allow American military operations against drug cartels, raising the stakes in the fight against fentanyl. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here.
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Chapter 4: What is the current state of protests in Iran and their implications?
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The Trump administration is escalating its fight against fentanyl, pushing Mexico to take a new step by allowing US military forces to participate directly in joint operations against cartel-run labs inside the country. Now, this proposal isn't new. It first surfaced early last year and then quietly faded as Mexico pushed back.
But after the US operation that captured Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro, the thinking inside the White House appears to have shifted. Officials now see that operation in Venezuela as proof of concept, and that confidence seems to be shaping how President Trump may approach Mexico. Here's what Washington is reportedly asking for. Under the proposal now on the table, U.S.
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