The President's Daily Brief
PDB Situation Report | December 13th, 2025: Inside Japan’s Biggest Military Shift Since World War Two & Iran’s Student Uprising
13 Dec 2025
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Welcome to the PDP Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Japan's largest military buildup since World War II is now underway. New reporting shows a sweeping expansion of missile sites, radar systems, and a major U.S.-Japan F-35 base across islands near Taiwan.
Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery joins us for more on those developments. Later in the show, Iran's students are stepping into a dangerous spotlight as unrest builds across the country. We'll be joined by Iranian-American scholar and human rights advocate, Dr. Ramesh Separad, for more on that. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
Japan is undertaking its largest military buildup since World War II, and the scale is far bigger than what we reported just last month. Back then, we reported that Tokyo was preparing to place a surface-to-air missile unit on Yonaguni. That's a tiny island just 68 miles from Taiwan.
Now, new reporting shows a sweeping transformation across the entire Ryukyu chain, that's a long arc of islands running from Japan's main homeland down toward Taiwan. Tokyo is adding missile batteries, radar sites, electronic warfare units, and ammunition depots, while also building a massive new U.S.-Japan F-35 training base on Magashima.
So, you ask, what does this massive military buildup mean for the region and the growing tensions between China and Japan? Joining us to break this down is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Sir, thank you very much for coming back on the Situation Report. Thank you for having me, Mike. Let's take a look at this situation.
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Chapter 2: What is Japan's military buildup and why is it significant?
Are we about to watch a war break out between China and Japan?
No, but China's definitely trying to flex that they're a big country and Japan's a medium-sized country and try to hold them accountable. Look, China worries about, can we coerce Taiwan into rejoining us on their own? One of the things they know makes it harder is if allies and partners of Taiwan demonstrate a willingness to fight alongside Taiwan.
So, that's why they criticize the United States every time we do an arms sale to Taiwan. They criticize us every time we have a major exercise with the Taiwan forces, which isn't frequent. Similarly, the Japanese prime minister said out loud what many Japanese senior leaders since Prime Minister Abe left office some five years, six years ago.
She said out loud what they all said in private, which is that a Chinese attack on Taiwan is an existential threat to the security of Japan.
Explain to our viewers, if you could, what's the thinking behind that? Why do they view it that way?
I think the Japanese understand that if China were to successfully reintegrate Taiwan coercively, in other words, there was a failure of the United States to respond under the Taiwan Relations Act or we responded too late or we had initial casualties and we backed off, whatever the reason,
if there was some kind of Chinese success, the rest of the Northeast, China would then look at Japan and Korea as future vassal states. They would extend their perceived hegemonic or regional power umbrella to include those two countries. Right now, they clearly fall under
the US security umbrella with actual treaties between us and Japan and between us and Korea that we would defend you against any attack. And their economic security, they align with their national security. So with the United States, both countries have very aggressive direct investment in trade policies towards the United States.
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Chapter 3: How is the U.S.-Japan military relationship evolving?
In other words, to make sure they keep us entangled with them. And President Trump has amplified that with his trade negotiations, really pushing foreign direct investment by those two countries, Japan and Korea in the United States. So the whole idea is we're aggressively entangled.
But if the security arrangement falls apart, because we're no longer reliable, credible ally, because we allow Taiwan to fall. So that's how Japan looks at it. Taiwan is the kind of canary in the coal mine. If it goes down, we're going to have to come to grips with a regional hegemonic Chinese power.
Our agreement with Taiwan is not the same as our agreements with Japan and South Korea. And so it seems like this is a problem from the start. And I realize I'm about to ask a highly speculative question, but if it's an aggressive move on Taiwan, What do you imagine a U.S. administration, whether it's this one, next, whichever, it doesn't matter, I suppose, but what would the U.S.
administration response be?
That's the $64,000 question. And I'll tell you, the president just put a national security strategy out and it kind of had a good news, bad news kind of situation for Taiwan. The good news was it very clearly stated in print, something we don't normally do, that we will not allow China to coerce Taiwan into a different solution, into some kind of integration.
And that the United States will maintain sufficient military power to make sure that doesn't happen. That's the good news. That's the good times. The worst of times part of the national security strategy was the kind of removal of China being listed as a security adversary. I think the treasury secretary had a lot to do with that. And you can even see it as you read the document.
There's clearly like, what were they talking about here? I think they're talking about China, but the word China has been removed. And then in an area I look at a lot, cybersecurity,
China has been running this massive cybersecurity effort, I guess it's called Volt Typhoon, you know, preparing the battlefield in our country, in our global infrastructure, and we don't even mention it in a 33-page document about threats to the United States. So, I say Taiwan is nervous. You know, I have a son over there on a U.S. Navy ship.
You know, when I talk with him, you know, he and his shipmates expect that they'll be part of a crisis or war that breaks out there because that's how our Department of Defense views the Taiwan Relations Act. So, we're training and building a military to be ready to respond. But, you know, you kind of hit it in your question. Will the president make the decision to do it?
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of Japan's military expansion for regional security?
100%, I think like the cross-strait invasion, kind of the really big war, what we call the most dangerous scenario, for sure that's in the future.
What I worry about is there's another kind of game China can play called the most likely scenario, which is cyber-enabled economic warfare, where they use cyber tools, disinformation, economic tools, diplomatic tools, military fakes, not attacks, to pressure the Taiwan society. They try to break societal resilience in Taiwan.
And they had not, and previously had not done a great job building that up. They're working really hard on it now. We're trying to help them. By the way, we're vulnerable to this.
That kind of attack, I think you're, I'm going to give you almost the same timeframe, late 2027, early 2028, when Taiwan's having its next election to try to increase the pressure to drive, to ensure that the current president who China does not like, like Chin Teh, to ensure that president like Chin Teh does not win a second term.
I would move up that timeframe, sir, and I'd like to pick up on this after the break, but I would argue that that phase of the war, or however we want to describe it, that type of war is already underway, and the Chinese regime is...
engaged in that war that you described already uh perhaps we just don't you know or the white house just doesn't see it i'm not sure but uh sir if you could stay right where you are we do need to take a quick break and then we'll be back with more from adam montgomery right here on the situation report please stick around Hey, Mike Baker here.
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Chapter 5: What role do Iranian students play in the current protests?
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Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report. Joining us once again is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Sir, thank you very much for sticking around.
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Chapter 6: How has the Iranian regime responded to student protests?
We started off our conversation earlier by highlighting the tensions that have been building between China and Japan. Could you talk a bit about Japan's build up, what they're doing currently that has gotten the Chinese regime so riled up?
Yeah, you know, there's a big change going on. After the Russian illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Japan kind of had a wake-up call that, hey, authoritarians might actually do what they say, and they might put people at risk. And in addition to the Taiwan issue and some issues in the South China Sea that Japan is interested in,
Japan and China have a significant disagreement over a set of islands called the Senkaku Islands that Japan holds and China claims. And China's basic premise is, if we've ever held anything and have a claim to it, we're taking it back between now and 2049. But all of a sudden, Japan got this wake-up call.
Now, historically, by their constitution, they only spent 1% of gross domestic product on defense. Now, they hit it. They really spent about 1.5%. I won't get into all of it, but they suppressed it to have a good defense.
And I will tell you, outside of Israel, Japan had the most effective defense spending of any of our allies and partners, and certainly much more effective than anyone in Europe or the United States. What they got previously for about $45 to $50 billion a year was fantastic. Now, what's happening now is they're cranking up their defense spending.
They just announced that next year's will be, they'll hit 2% of GDP with $60 billion and further increases over the next four years. And they're headed up to that, I think eventually that NATO standard of 3.5%. And in addition, they definitely spend the 1.5% on critical infrastructure associated with like military mobility or rail systems, aviation system, port systems.
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Chapter 7: What is the current state of dissent among the Iranian youth?
So they're coming up. And so here's the most efficient country in the world outside of Israel beginning to really expend more money on equipment. That's got China a little nervous because they also have geographic proximity, obviously. Their weapons, are 100% in theater all the time. They don't leave.
Whereas with the United States, we may spend 900 billion, but we keep 90% of our weapons outside of the Western Pacific at any one time. We only keep about 10% of our military forward deployed in the Western Pacific for the Asia Pacific crises, either forward stationed or forward deployed.
So, that $50 billion go to $60 billion, go to $70 billion, go to $80 billion, it's going to leave a mark on Chinese ability to conduct military operations. So, that's another reason they have beat with Japan's actions over the last year and a half.
That's really interesting. I guess it speaks in part to what you talked about earlier, where China gets concerned anytime allies do anything that indicates security for Taiwan or alliance with Taiwan, which this certainly implies because they're tying that defense spending, it seems, into their concerns that Taiwan may be in conflict at some point here in the near future.
So, and I suppose if you tie that in with, as you mentioned, the prime minister's comments that Xi made talking about an existential threat, if China takes Taiwan in an aggressive manner, that all starts to make sense. But the regime, the Chinese regime, certainly under Xi Jinping and the foreign ministry, they've come out swinging, right?
I mean, I believe they even made a nuclear threat to Japan, right?
And the personal comments about wringing her by her neck and things like that, just unprofessional. It's how China is. China is a bully. And when they see a country that's smaller than them, and they see everyone is smaller than them except the United States, they bully them. That is their MO. It's been their MO for over a decade now. And so, I expect it to continue.
And they should be nervous, by the way. I should have said. What Japan is buying with this is F-35 fifth-generation aircraft, the refueling aircraft that'll help US and Japanese aircraft conduct operations, long-range strike missiles, Tomahawks, several hundred of them. getting delivered soon, their own indigenous locally produced strike weapons, things that can hit China.
So, this is all a strong deterred signal from Japan, don't mess with us, don't mess with the United States and don't mess with Taiwan. And I think that's a good strong signal for them to be sending because it amplifies our signal because of their geographic proximity.
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Chapter 8: How does economic hardship contribute to unrest in Iran?
That's part of that cross-strait invasion. It's not just ships coming across the strait, it's an airborne assault as well. So, from my perspective, those are two pretty big technological quid pro quos back to China, if true. These are both rumor, but if true, this would be a significant issue that makes it more challenging for Taiwan or the United States to fight China.
Yeah. I mean, there's all sorts of reporting that's been out there talking about how a cross-strait invasion would occur and how the Chinese military would pull into service sort of their civilian fleet, their barges, their ferries. It's a fascinating... situation to try to game out.
Something else that I find very interesting, and it's not really a question, I'm just kind of looking for a comment, but the Chinese, they're in a way, you have to, I don't want to say admire, but they always do what's in their best interest, right? And they're shameless about it. Whatever is in their best interest. I mean, every nation theoretically does that.
The US apologizes constantly because we're doing something in the US best interest. But the Chinese are selling some of the key components for drones. They make some of the blades and some of the technology within the drones that are used in the Ukraine conflict, and they're selling them to both sides, right? So both Ukraine and Russia purchased these components from China,
And now, this is interesting, we're covering this on the PDB, I'm just throwing this out there to show, I guess, how bizarre the world is, but there's lawsuits now taking place down in Texas against some US chip manufacturers because US chips have been found for the past couple of years in Russian missile remnants and drones. And so, despite the sanctions over the past couple of years,
the Russian military is still finding a way to get their hands on U.S. components to include in their gear. Again, not a question, just a conversation.
Well, you're right on all those points though, I'll tell you.
In fact, I don't know if you remember, but the very beginning of the war, one of the things the Russians did when they seized land was take all the modern dishwashers and washing machines so they could grab the microelectronics out of them because there was some similarity between those, some of the chips in those and the chips that were in weapons systems.
So the propensity for dual use technology in this world is pretty big. And I will say, I think China does intentionally provide drones to the Ukrainians and Ukrainian drones cause 82% of Russian casualties. And I think they allow them, they say there's a ban, but they're clearly showing up.
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