No Mercy / No Malice: Patient(s) Zero
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What unexpected events disrupt Barb's morning?
Once upon a mundane morning, Barb's day got busy without warning. A realtor in need of an open house sign. No, 50 of them. And designed before nine. My head hurts. Any mighty tools to help with this plight? Ah-ha! Barb made her move. She opened Canada and got in the groove. While creating Canva sheets, create 50 signs fit for suburban streets.
How does Barb utilize Canva to solve her problem?
Done in a click, all complete. Sweet! Now, imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at Canva.com. Once upon a dismal day, Bob's ice cream van looked gloomy and gray. Although he had big ambitions, his socials lacked creative vision. Ugh, that bad? Maybe vamp it up a tad? I have an idea. Bob launched Canva and got into gear. Create a video in the vampire theme and make it the funniest I mean. It went viral. Bob's business, a revival. Now, imagine what your dreams can become when you put imagination to work at Canva.com.
Megan Rapinoe here. This week on A Touch More, we've got two insiders to help us unpack the WNBA's new CBA, three-time champion and WNBPA Vice President Alicia Clark, a.k.a. AC, and ESPN basketball analyst Andrea Carter. We're also going to take a look at our NCAA brackets and check out what's next in March Madness. Check out the latest episode of A Touch More wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
I'm Scott Galloway, and this is No Mercy, No Malice. The things you aren't thinking about are the things that cause the most damage.
What challenges does Bob face with his ice cream van?
I believe emerging markets, specifically Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, could be patience zero for the next market collapse. Patience zero, as read by George Hahn.
Sometimes the canary in the coal mine is an early warning system. Other times a dead canary is a false positive that causes panicked miners to stampede to the surface, crushing each other in the rush for air that was never poisoned. The panic is the poison. Currently, global markets are pricing in the economic fallout of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for 21% of the world's oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas. Equity markets in the EU, India, Japan, South Korea, and the UAE have declined 8% to 17% since February 28th. Oil hit $127 a barrel. The VIX spiked to 42. Anything above 30 signals panic. Former Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld would have called this a known known.
We saw it coming. We just didn't stop it. But known knowns don't kill markets. Unknown unknowns do. September 11th wasn't on anyone's risk model. The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis was contained to subprime until Lehman collapsed and nearly took the global financial system with it. COVID-19 was just a flu until we shut down the world economy for two years. The pattern is always the same. We're staring at the obvious threat – oil prices, inflation, recession –
How does Bob's video go viral and revive his business?
while the real contagion is hiding in plain sight, waiting to metastasize. So let's talk about the market collapse scenario nobody's pricing in, the one that doesn't show up in Bloomberg terminals or Goldman Sachs reports until it's already eating the global financial system from the inside out. On the Paramount Plus show Landman, oil fixer Tommy Norris, Billy Bob Thornton, describes the oil market's Goldilocks nature. You want oil to live above $60 a barrel but below $90. Gas gets up over $3.50 a gallon, it starts to pinch. Oil hits $100, every product in America has to readjust its price. U.S. gas prices reached $3.70 per gallon this week, prompting fears of 1970s-style stagflation and anxiety among Republicans, as the party in power typically pays a political price in an economic downturn.
Neither of these outcomes is likely to lead to additional economic shocks, as the markets have already priced in these scenarios. American leadership looks out the window and sees itself and a world that reacts as we'd hope or expect. First off, the Trump administration is just so incredibly incompetent as to not recognize in war, the enemy gets a say. Another blind spot, A, the rest of the world, specifically emerging economies where governments are already rationing fuel.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What unexpected events disrupt Barb's morning?
0:00–0:21
2
How does Barb utilize Canva to solve her problem?
0:21–1:40
3
What challenges does Bob face with his ice cream van?
1:40–3:44
4
How does Bob's video go viral and revive his business?
3:44–8:42
5
What are the implications of the U.S.-Israel war on global markets?
8:42–10:20
6
How do emerging markets like Bangladesh and Egypt relate to market collapses?
10:20–16:47
Speakers
4 identifiedMore from The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
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