176. Is Trump the Biggest Loser of the Iran Ceasefire?
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Has the US-Iran ceasefire already collapsed and why does it feel fragile?
Hello and welcome to The Rest Is Politics U.S. I'm Anthony Scaramucci.
I'm Katty Kay.
So Katty, we're going to be talking about the Iran ceasefire. It's already on the brink, as both of us know and would have predicted. Trump is making threats, of course, overnight, and the Israelis are still striking Lebanon. So Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. We're going to be also going to ask where the Democrats are in all of this. After strong results, Katty, in Georgia and Wisconsin, do they finally have some momentum heading into the midterms? But first, Katty, has the ceasefire been a failure?
That's a great question. I had a conversation yesterday with an official from a Gulf country who said to me, What ceasefire? We're still getting missiles lobbed at us. I was in a restaurant yesterday and I still got a warning sign on my phone saying a missile is incoming. So from the neighbor's point of view, it didn't look very much like there was a ceasefire. Some of that could be, as you and I said earlier, in the week, Anthony, when the 8 p.m. deadline passed and this was first announced, that could just be that it takes a little bit of time. That's what J.D. Vance is saying. Ceasefires can be messy at the beginning. But I think the bigger issue is that Donald Trump has kind of put his poker hands on the table.
He's abandoned his poker face and he's laid his cards on the table. And the moment he'd announced that ceasefire, it was so apparent from his language, from the way he talked about moving forward, from the way he talked about making money, who knew, that he wanted out of there. He wanted this to be over with. He wants to move on to the future. He wants to get on to the next best thing. He's already talking about Greenland again in some of his Truth Social posts. So he's effectively said to the Iranians, I am so keen for this to be over that as we go into this two-week negotiating period, guess what? The Iranians feel they have a very strong hand. And the wrangling, I think now, the key sticking point is going to be over this enriched uranium.
What happens next? to that, however many pounds it is, kilos it is, of highly enriched uranium that is buried somewhere under the Iranian soil, a lot of people are saying, including on Fox News, that that is the key. He has to get that out, otherwise it's going to be very hard for him to say that this is a victory. But even before we get there, This two weeks, I mean, there's no ships going through the Straits of Hormuz as far as I know today. Or if they are, they're having to check in. I think there were three lined up. And then there are another three who are just like sitting there waiting. The Iranians have said very clearly, you've got to check in with us. So the ceasefire, I'd say, is looking very fragile.
And then there's the question of Lebanon that the Vice President has said that was never on the agenda. The Iranians insist it was on the agenda. I mean, the problem is they're not talking to each other. They're going through these intermediaries. I'm told that it's not even clear who's talking for the Iranians in this process. The Pakistanis and the Chinese are kind of shuttling backwards and forwards to find somebody to talk on behalf of the Iranians. So I think it's kind of a mess. And even if it's not a mess, I'm not sure how much of a win this looks like. for the Americans unless they get that uranium out, in which case, we'll be telling a different story. I think it's too soon to say it's failed already.
What do you think?
Well, I mean, the fact that the markets think it has not failed sends a message to me that it hasn't failed yet. It's shaky, and it's fragile.
It's kind of how I feel this morning after not enough sleep.
Well, hi.
Actually, how I feel after this last week.
I mean, listen, I would say this before the show started. Only Donald Trump could take the Artemis II, an American achievement where we're taking photographs of the backside of the moon again, and let's pray for the safe return of these astronauts.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
Has the US-Iran ceasefire already collapsed and why does it feel fragile?
0:08–5:17
2
How did Trump's rhetoric and actions shape negotiating leverage with Iran?
5:17–17:24
3
What did New York Times reporting reveal about Trump and Netanyahu's dynamic?
17:24–22:39
4
Why do hosts argue Israel appeared to be ‘calling the shots’ in US decision‑making?
22:39–37:22
Speakers
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