196. Trump’s Iran Deal: One Big American Failure?

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The Rest Is Politics: US 37 min 2 speakers 8 chapters transcribed 3 months ago
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Katty Kay 0:08
Welcome to The Rest Is Politics US with me, Katty Kay.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:11
And me, Anthony Scaramucci. How are you, Katty?
Katty Kay 0:14
I am very good. It's been a fun sporting weekend. I've been watching the World Cup games. Team USA doing amazingly. I liked that on Friday. That was fun.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:23
Of course, we have the Knicks, Katty.
Katty Kay 0:25
I know you.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:26
I realize we have the Knicks for all of us New Yorkers out there. As I explained to people I was watching with, I've been waiting for it longer than you've all been alive. OK, so the last time the Knicks won, I was watching it from my Nana's little apartment on rabbit ear TV in black and white.
Katty Kay 0:43
And New York went crazy. But now, look, guys, you've won the basketball. You can start focusing on the soccer and the World Cup. That's what I'm thinking. We can move on.
Anthony Scaramucci 0:52
In the meantime, we had a UFC fight at the White House. I think at some point we have to talk a little bit about the culture of that and what the Democrats miss. Yeah. But let's talk about the Trump-Iran deal.
Katty Kay 1:03
Yeah, it's been a very busy weekend. It started with Donald Trump getting his name taken off the Kennedy Center, too. That was kind of extraordinary to watch the live streams of that. Only in Washington is a Friday night's exciting entertainment watching a name come off the Kennedy Center wall. But there you go. That's what kind of city this is. But yeah, on Sunday, the president announced that a deal has finally been reached with Iran. Ships of the world, start your engines, let the oil flow, he said. But honestly, there are a lot more questions than answers because none of us have actually seen this memorandum of understanding, which is meant to be a couple of pages long. It's going to get signed on Friday, in theory, and we will look at whether the Strait is really going to get opened and under what conditions, what will happen to Iran's nuclear program, and perhaps the question that is most important to the Trump administration.
Katty Kay 1:54
Can he spin this memorandum? deal, whatever it ends up being, as better than Barack Obama's deal. Because here's my new thought. I think that Donald Trump has Obama derangement syndrome. And that's what a lot of this was all about.
Anthony Scaramucci 2:09
ODS. I like that. Odius.
Katty Kay 2:11
It could also be odious. Odious. He would like that. And then in the second half, yes, we will talk about Trump's ultimate fighting championship event that was held for his 80th birthday celebration just down the road from me in Washington, D.C. But let's start with the headlines out of this Iran deal. Here is what. we know. He's announced a breakthrough that the Pakistanis and the Qataris mediated. The Iranians have also said, yes, there has been a breakthrough and that some document will be signed on Friday, which starts a period of about 60 days during which the Straits of Hormuz will be opened again The Americans will open the blockade, release the blockade on the Straits of Hormuz and nuclear negotiations will start over Iran's nuclear program.
Katty Kay 3:04
And then there's a lot of questions around about how much money Iran gets in terms of unfrozen assets and sanctions relief and reparations for the war. And when they get that, there's also questions about Israel, which was not part of these negotiations, and Hezbollah and what happens between Lebanon and Israel. Still a lot of questions. I've reached out to a couple of people who've been involved, Anthony, before the show, in previous Iran negotiations. And the take is pretty similar from all of them. This looks like we're going to have open-ended nuclear negotiations that are going to blow past this 60-day period. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but under greater Iranian control. And Iran will access some reserves that have been blocked.

What are the implications of Trump's new Iran deal?

Katty Kay 3:56
And that's broadly this framework. And the conclusion seems to be from the people that I've spoken to this morning that we are probably in a worse off situation than we were before the war started because Iran now has more control of the Strait of Hormuz. And any final deal that gets negotiated out of this is going to look very similar to the JCPOA, which was Barack Obama's negotiation.

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