Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Blair has strongly, strongly given the impression that he would have been much more strongly behind what Trump and Israel are doing in Iran than Keir Starmer.
If you are any former prime minister, but I would argue particularly Tony Blair in this context, where a Labour prime minister has got a particular difficulty with the American president, then there is no such thing as off the record.
We need some way of saying to the US, we're distancing ourselves. We're not going to be your lackeys anymore. You've just strengthened Russia's hand by pushing up the oil price. You've weakened Ukraine by taking patriot missiles out. You've weakened our own economies. With respect, you tell us to look after ourselves, stand on our own two feet, be proud national Europeans.
Chapter 2: Why is Tony Blair criticizing Starmer's approach to Trump and Iran?
Our priority is this. We're not having anything to do with this.
welcome to the rest is politics question time with me alistair campbell and with me rory stewart and as with the main episode that we did live yesterday we are going to be focusing entirely on iran we have had thousands of questions from you and it is such a consequential and amazing and actually i mean even on the live show we got a huge amount of questions but we've also had people sending them in by i guess email
All different social media platforms, Discord. I mean, it's been incredible. I want to start, though, with Jennifer, who's a Trip Plus member.
Thank you, Jennifer, very much.
Thank you. Thank you for subscribing. From New Malden. What do you make of Alistair's former boss commenting on Starmer's reluctance to join the Orange Man in his seemingly impulsive war in Iran? There's a lot of adjectives going on here, Jennifer. I know that post-Brexit, the unspoken policy of ex-prime ministers not commenting on their successes seems to have gone out of the window.
But to me, it seems particularly vicious to kick Starmer when he's already down, especially when on this occasion, most British people believe he's right. Has being on the Orange Man's Board of Peace gone to Blair's head, or is he now bored of peace?
Okay, well, I'll put the case to the defence, then I'll put the case to the prosecution. Very good. In a good sort of, you know, agreeable... A famously balanced way. I'll be bound by that. So the case... for the defense is that Tony is adamant he didn't say the things that the headline said he said.
In other words, the headlines were, Blair rebukes Starmer, Blair admonishes Starmer, Blair says Starmer weak, and he says he said none of that.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of European leaders calling out Trump's lies?
What he did say... was that in an ideal world, Britain would be alongside the Americans in these foreign policy adventures.
And that he suggested that he personally, had he been prime minister, would have been squarely behind the US in this particular operation.
Well, I don't even know that he said that. Now, what he hasn't done is denied saying some of the things that he's reportedly saying, because he's assuming – and this is where I make the case for the prosecution –
If you are any former prime minister, but I would argue particularly Tony Blair in this context where a Labour prime minister has got a particular difficulty ongoing with the American president, then you are a very, very skilled, very, very experienced politician. There is no such thing as off the record. There is no such thing as Chatham House rule.
It said in the papers it was a Chatham House event. There's no such thing. So my sense is that as much through body language and tone, he gave enough to the Mail, the Telegraph, et cetera, whoever was taping the thing to run the headlines that they did, which was not good for Keir Starmer.
Just to, sorry, in very, very basic terms. The story seems to be that Blair has strongly, strongly given the impression, whether he exactly said this or not, that he would have been much more strongly behind what Trump and Israel are doing in Iran than Keir Starmer. And if he'd been in charge, the implication at least was that Britain would have opened up these air bases, got behind it.
And the suggestion is that he's worried that Starmer hasn't done enough to support the U.S., And that's Trump's line too, which makes it even more complicated because Trump also has been going around saying that, you know, Starmer's not exactly Churchill. You know, we used to be a great ally and has basically been insulting Starmer saying he's not been strong enough.
Right. And that is why, in my view, Tony should have been a lot more sensitive. whatever he said and however he said it to the notion that there would be people in that room. This was a Jewish news fundraiser. This is a very, very pro-Israel audience. Israel is much more in favor of what's happening in Iran than the UK or Europe or indeed the United States.
And why is Tony speaking at a fundraiser for Jewish news? Probably because he supports some of the causes that they support. And
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Chapter 4: How does Tony Blair's stance affect Keir Starmer's position?
These are people that are close but who are not on his side, saying he decided one thing Thursday, Friday, and then he changed his mind on Saturday, and then you have other people in Downing Street saying the US didn't request on Thursday, Friday, so he only agreed to it on Saturday. It doesn't seem to me as though those stories feel like a clean, clear decision tree.
They feel like an almighty disagreement within the cabinet about what they're going to do, and a lot of uncertainty about what the US was requesting, when they were requesting it, what's going on. Here's another fact that was interesting to me, which is just how much these bases are being used anyway.
So the Daily Mail did some pretty good reporting on what was happening in Prestwick, which is owned by the Scottish government. So they discovered that at this base, Prestwick Airport, in the buildup, So the implication is not after the operation started. There were already 10 F-35s, American F-35s, the big attack aircraft, two A-10 Warthogs, two C-17As.
To make the story even more complicated, it appears that the US was just using all these bases anyway. So him saying, one day you can't use them, the next day you can use them for defensive purposes. I also still don't quite really understand what that means. I mean, does that mean to defend US missile bases and radar stations from Iranian attack?
In which case are you saying it's not justifiable for the Iranians to attack US radar stations if they're defending themselves?
My understanding of what they didn't agree to was British assets being used in the initial attacks on Iran.
So no British planes flying. Correct. Right.
And now does that mean that there weren't British assets that are used under our everyday 24-7 defence arrangements with the US? Probably, which is the point you were making.
So actually there was one of the, I saw on one of the, I think it was CNN, they were filming from Fairford and talking about whether they could use this base and you could see stuff coming and going and you're thinking, that is not a civilian aircraft I'm looking at there. Yeah.
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Chapter 5: What is the current situation unfolding inside Iran?
The key point here is that it's going to almost certainly create a repressive regime in Iran. It's going to shake the economies of the Middle East. It's going to make Britain's economy struggle, Europe's economy struggle, and it's achieving next to nothing. That's the big story. Should a British prime minister be supporting this China war? Absolutely not.
Not least because the way that Trump and Netanyahu has done it is flagrantly undermining international law. But should he be saying it in the terms that you've just said it?
Because that's where you and I disagree.
No, no, I don't think he should be saying it in those terms. I think what he should have said, and I think it's a difficult line, but it's got to be the line going forward for all these guys, right?
Chapter 6: Why do Iranians feel they are facing two wars simultaneously?
Which is to say to the U.S., You've said from the beginning that you want to retreat from Europe because you want to focus on China. You want us to focus on our own backyard. You want us to take on Russia. And guess what?
Chapter 7: What are the challenges of public opinion in Iran?
We're doing it. You've taken $50 billion out. We've taken responsibility for that. You want us to be sovereign. You want us to be independent.
And by the way, you're making it more expensive for us right now.
And by the way, you've just strengthened Russia's hand by pushing up the oil price. You've weakened Ukraine by taking Patriot missiles out. You've weakened our own economies. So with respect, you tell us to look after ourselves, stand on our own two feet, be proud national Europeans. Our priority is this. We're not having anything to do with this.
I mentioned yesterday's book. You can't read it because it's in German, but this honestly has got to be translated into English. It's a really important book, I think. the grown-up land, Germany without America. But I found this amazing account. This is when Merkel was chancellor and Jared Kushner was in the little team and they were doing all the small talk before the big meeting started.
And this guy, Christoph Heusgen, who is an advisor to Angela Merkel, and he's having this discussion with Kushner. And Kushner says as follows, we're business people. In business, one day, somebody's your friend, and the next day, they're your enemy. That's how our foreign policy is going to work. That's at the very first meeting with the German Chancellor.
No, honestly, you've talked a lot about middle powers and response. We both have, and what that narrative could be. And you've been challenging me on this response. I don't think it's just a question for the UK. And Nick Osler, who's a Tripp Plus member, has a question on this.
With three years left of Trump's chaotic presidency, should Starmer and other world leaders stop tiptoeing and start calling out his childish, unpredictable, and dangerous actions? The usual strategy of ignoring insults and hoping flattery works doesn't seem to be preventing real damage to the world order. Has the time come to speak plainly about the emperor's lack of clothes?
I mean, that does, in a way, speak to the different challenges that are posed to people like us who can say what we want and say what we think, and people who are actually involved day-to-day in the art of statecraft and trying to build alliances. But I think, for example, just two quick examples that relate to this.
We talked on the main episode yesterday about this school that's been hit, that was hit on the day one, 150 people killed, many of them very, very small children. Trump is lying about it. He is now, he's basically saying, oh, well, we think it was Iran. He's the only person who's saying that. He was actually, to be fair to a reporter, he was directly challenged about it yesterday.
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Chapter 8: How is Trump's foreign policy impacting the Middle East?
And I think it was a really, really, really impressive piece of work. And I think we need something really big on that front. So for example, whether there is a case to be made for the revival of human rights where there is a case to be made for the revival of international law.
A new definition of international law, where somebody like Keir Starmer gets together with the Kani, possibly with the Australians, possibly with the Koreans, and says, you know, we're all being challenged in this, let's redefine what it is. And if the Americans want to be part of it, fine. If they don't, they don't.
And are you imagining that we try to hold together a pretty consistent coalition of joint statements, or is it going to be a little ad hoc on this one, Korea, Canada, Britain, on that one, France, Germany, whatever? I mean, how's this going to operate?
Well, I think... Partly this is a result of the pace of the world that we're in. So, for example, yesterday you had a situation with five women Iranian footballers who have decided they want to stay in Australia. So that becomes an issue which Trump decides to get involved in because it's a way of saying Iran bad, America good.
So I've said to the Australian Prime Minister, you've got to help these people out. That could happen in any country in the world. I think it makes more sense that Albanese, rather than sort of thinking about that on the hoof, is thinking, right, well, what would we do if this was Canada, if this was Britain, if this was Korea, if this was New Zealand?
And we start to kind of think through some of these scenario planning situations. Because the thing we know about Trump is he does operate according to impulse. He just sees that situation. Women, football, World Cup's coming down. I've got to get involved.
And I suppose there are two big pictures that all these leaders can begin to develop. Number one is more independence from the US. So define the 10 things that the US has a chokehold over us from.
And by the way, that's hard. Your AI series undermines how hard that is. Very, very hard. Defense is hard. AI is hard. Very hard. Quantum's hard.
Very hard. But if we're going to do it, what's that five, 10-year plan? What are the steps we're going to take to get there? And I suppose the second thing is what are the new rules? Because we need some rules. We need some laws. We need some norms. We need some idea of how things operate. And we'll know consistently that those are the two things with Trump.
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