Trump, Inflation, and the Future of Real Estate | Jason Hartman
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What is the hardest year ever to predict in real estate?
This year is the hardest year ever to predict the real estate market.
Okay.
Why? Because there are so many wild cards. Trump is the wild card of wild cards. The average construction worker now is almost 50 years old. In the past, you know, it was guys in their early 20s. Nowadays, these guys have aged. They're all 50. And there is a giant shortage of construction workers. And that's going to make the supply demand equation out of balance. That's going to push the price of housing up. These tariffs will push the price up. There's a lot of upward pressure on prices and just general inflation.
What is up? The Science of Flipping. This one is going to be a good one. If you want to know what is in store for the market, because Trump's here, if you want to be able to see around the corner, if you want to listen to someone who's done well over 10,000 deals in his career, we have economist Jason Hartman here. What is up, dude?
Hey, Justin. It's good to be here.
So I'm going to come straight at what I think everyone's going to want to understand or your thoughts on it at least. Trump's in office. Everyone thinks he is our savior. Everyone thinks there's a lightning bolt that will come down. The economy is going to be saved. We're all going to be rich and we're going to print money. Let's hear your perspective of reality.
Yeah, that's funny. Well, I think half the people don't think he's the savior. Yes. Well, less than a little less than half. And yeah, it's a it's a really interesting time. I think Trump is going to be incredible. I think the second term is going to be phenomenal. I think he's matured. I think he knows what he's doing. He's an executive. He's a winner. Unlike the previous administration, that was just a complete disaster. But it's not going to be without some pain. There will be some bumps in the road. These changes that Trump is making, I believe, are very good for the country long term. But, you know, if you take millions of illegals out of the market, you know, they rent from somebody. They work for somebody. Not all of them, of course.
But, you know, they are a cost to the government. And it costs generally about $8,000 per year per illegal in the country. So that is a weight on the government that's causing more inflation. But that inflation is delayed from the benefit. The benefit is immediate and the cost is delayed. Hmm. And so that's why the Democrats and really the Republicans, too, over the years have not controlled the borders because the benefit to their time in office is obvious. But the cost comes later. So it's benefit now, pay later. And so Trump is, you know, he's going to make us take a little bit of medicine here with these deportations. But overall, I think that's, you know, it has to happen. Countries can't be lawless. They have to have borders. OK, every country on Earth has borders. The other thing is the tariffs. And so when you look at the cost of housing and the cost of construction, think of the ingredients of a house, an apartment building, or any kind of building for that matter. You know, concrete, lumber...
Sheet rock, copper wire in the walls, petroleum products all over the place, you know, glass, steel. And then think of the products that are assembled, but the small products in a house that are massively imported. Doorknobs, hinges, cabinet doors, you know, all these things, the faucets, you know, all of these things. If we see tariffs happen, the price of those will skyrocket. Right. And ultimately, that's good for the country too, though, because it'll bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and make more high-paying American jobs. But initially, there's going to be a little pain.
I also think there's a lot of—and by the way, I think I pay little to no attention to politics. My grandfather would blame me for that and say, you got to be educated on it. And in my world, it also is a stress reliever. I'm not all caught up in it. It's not something that, you know, fills my day to day life. And so for me, it's easier this way. Right. But I'm aware enough. Right.
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