Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

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Recorded13 Jan 2023

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Show notes

CSIS’s Mark Cancian joins the podcast to discuss the wargame exercise he created for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Cancian ran the game 24 times and in most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at a high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of service members. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule.

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