Ray Dalio: America’s Hidden Civil War, and the Race to Beat China in Tech, Economics, and Academia
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What is the hidden civil war in the United States?
So I've heard you say that the United States is in a civil war, and I think most Americans don't perceive that. Can you tell us what you mean by that?
Well, what I mean by a civil war, I should say a type of civil war, right? And what I mean is that there are irreconcilable differences that each side is willing to fight for. In order to get the outcomes that they want and that in that environment, the issues of how does the legal system work, is that going to stand in the way of that fight or is there going to be a fight that will. make the cause more important than anything. So that's the type of situation that we're in. And those gaps, we understand there's wealth and values gaps that are entering into this. We've seen this through history. So where that goes is a different question. But we are in that type of civil war, are we not?
Clearly we are. Clearly we are. How are they resolved? I mean, clearly they can be resolved through violence, but what are the other ways you resolve the kind of conflict we have?
Normally, they're resolved through conflict because you get to the point where both sides can't reach agreements. Both sides don't even want to talk. Both sides don't want to respect the rule of the law. So when we're dealing with things like sanctuary city issues and we're dealing with enforceability, who has the enforceability? Okay. And you almost have to play out. Okay. Enforceability means police forces and such things. Right. People with guns. Yeah. People... People with guns and causes that just because the legal thing says they shouldn't do that, that's not going to stand in the way. We have that kind of a situation. So we are probably past the point of being able to resolve that by compromise and empathy and all of that. So normally it goes that way.
I mean, the only thing that can be done is to have the fear of that. create a necessity for having Another path, you know, like we were talking about the debt situation. Yes. So can can there be a fiscal commission that gets together and then achieves those things or not? I think it's unlikely. I think we're going to more fragmentation states. There are some states and other states. I think you're going to see more fragmentation. And so but. You know, it's like this dynamic through history. This isn't the first time this happened. This happens repeatedly through history. And usually, you know, it runs its course.
So the way our leaders in the United States have dealt with it over the past 30 years has just been to ignore it. Completely just ignore it.
Well, there's a cycle, you know. The cycle was... let's say, I don't know, Ronald Reagan and Tip O'Neill, and they get together and they were operating in a certain way. And the manifestations of the circumstances, you know, the manifestations of debt or wealth gap or values gaps were not as great. So you didn't, over that 30-year period, have as much polarity in many different ways.
What caused the mass polarization in America?
So now you've gone to greater polarity. If you watch statistics, everything I do comes from measuring things. So I look at statistics. The gap in measuring conservative or liberal votes in the House and the Senate is the greatest gap since 1900. And the voting across party lines... is the least since 1900 so you see this gap you see it you see it in the elections right the green so uh the blue and red so we're not it's it's not just an evolutionary it's where we are where we have gotten to that is the irreconcilable questions does the supreme court You know, we thought about the Supreme Court differently not long ago, right? The Supreme Court was the Supreme Court. And so now it's different.
So what accounts, I mean, there are a million ways to measure this and all of them. Do you agree? Well, of course I agree. Of course I agree. And I agree with you that every measurement shows the same result, which is the country is polarized.
So we know where we are.
Completely. And we're not sure how it's resolved. But I think it's also worth pausing to ask, what was the change that led to the polarization that was unimaginable even 35 years ago? Um.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the hidden civil war in the United States?
0:00–3:41
2
What caused the mass polarization in America?
3:41–6:57
3
Will the advancement of technology destroy us?
6:57–13:15
4
What are Ray Dalio's predictions about AI?
13:15–26:26
5
How does AI impact economics?
26:26–33:33
6
What role does human nature play in AI development?
33:33–44:00
7
What are the potential future changes due to AI?
44:00–44:29
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