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The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch

20VC: Anthropic's $10BN Fundraise: Have They Beaten Cursor Already | a16z's $15BN Fundraise: Is the Middle Dead in VC Today? | How OpenAI Could Go to Zero and ElevenLabs at $11BN: Buy or Not?

15 Jan 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 15.933 Jason Lemkin

In the early stage, you're taking uncorrelated business risk. And in the late stage, you're taking 100% correlated valuation risk. If the growth is there for one more year, it looks cheap. I would be nervous if I was a $27 billion pre-cursor investor.

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15.993 - 20.419 Harry Stebbings

Where we have ascribed the odds of a downturn to less than zero.

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Chapter 2: What insights do we gain from Anthropic's $10 billion fundraise?

20.399 - 25.766 Harry Stebbings

I think OpenAI has existential risk. It is a bet that the best of times lasts at least a decade.

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Chapter 3: Has Claude Code surpassed Cursor in the AI space?

25.826 - 32.854 Harry Stebbings

It's pretty interesting that Andreessen not only raised the most capital, but on a two by two, I think has the strongest founder brand.

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32.874 - 40.804 Jason Lemkin

They've won and they've won really well. You can be promiscuous at the A if you have enough late stage stuff to cover it up.

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41.02 - 50.941 Harry Stebbings

Can you still find a $10 billion gem outside of the boundaries of this system or not? Now, $100 billion doesn't feel like that much, does it? This is 20VC with me, Harry Stebbings.

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50.981 - 58.115 Rory O'Driscoll

Now, this week with Jason Lemkin and Rory O'Driscoll, we have a lot to cover. We have Anthropic's $10 billion fundraise.

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Chapter 4: What risks does OpenAI face in the current market?

58.316 - 83.718 Rory O'Driscoll

We have... XAI raising an astonishing $20 billion. We have Andreessen Horowitz raising $15 billion, over 20% of the total funds raised by venture firms in 2025. So much to unpack today. Let me know what you think of these shows. I always love to hear your feedback. But before we dive into the show today, are you a founder working nonstop to raise your next round?

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84.058 - 95.496 Rory O'Driscoll

Are you an investor doing all you can for your portfolio companies to help them stand out? Funding and scaling a vision is challenging. Banking should not be. HSBC Innovation Banking caters to tech.

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Chapter 5: How significant is Andreessen Horowitz's $15 billion fundraise?

95.476 - 109.634 Rory O'Driscoll

and healthcare founders all over the world who need a really great banking partner that matches their pace, offering fast onboarding, product packages designed for your business, and capital solutions built for high-growth startups and the VCs investing in them.

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109.794 - 129.867 Rory O'Driscoll

With HSBC Innovation Banking's rapid onboarding, you can get access to your new accounts and facilities quickly, so your team can stay focused on building and scaling what's next. You'll be paired with your own dedicated team of venture ecosystem veterans who have the network and experience to guide companies in your specific sector at your specific stage.

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130.288 - 154.435 Rory O'Driscoll

And behind that support is this real strength, HSBC's $3 trillion balance sheet. and global network that provides this stability and international reach needed to grow your operation with confidence. To see how HSBC Innovation Banking can support you, whether you're on day one or day a thousand, visit innovationbanking.hsbc to learn more and connect with an innovation banking specialist.

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154.455 - 178.045 Rory O'Driscoll

That's innovationbanking.hsbc. While HSBC manages your corporate banking needs, Deal helps you build the global team behind it. Founders scale startups faster on deal. Grow without borders. Deal handles the hard parts of global hiring so you can stay focused on growth. Set up payroll for any country in minutes. Hire anyone, anywhere, and get visas handled fast.

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178.065 - 208.963 Rory O'Driscoll

Deal takes care of onboarding, HR, IT, EOR, benefits, and compliance. Everything your startup needs to scale quickly, all done, fast, in one place. And that's why 37,000 fast-growing companies trust Deal to move really fast and get back to building. Visit deal.com slash 20VC. That's deal.com slash 20VC. Once Deal helps you hire your global team, Framer gets them wowed on the way in.

Chapter 6: What does 'The Middle is Dead' mean in the context of venture capital?

208.943 - 226.141 Rory O'Driscoll

Your marketing website sets the tone for your brand, let's face it. And it's the one touch point every single one of your customers has. So if you're struggling to make small changes and simple updates, you're falling behind. And that's why so many companies from early stage startups to Fortune 500s are turning to Framer.

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226.281 - 231.607 Rory O'Driscoll

Framer is an enterprise grade, no code website builder that works like your team's favorite design tool.

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Chapter 7: What is the future outlook for venture capital?

231.847 - 255.049 Rory O'Driscoll

And it's used by companies like Perplexity, Miro, Mixpanel to move faster, Designers and marketers can fully own the site with real-time collaboration, a robust CMS built for SEO, and advanced analytics that include integrated A-B testing. So you're not just shipping pages, but you're maximizing what works. And when you're ready to ship, changes go live in seconds with one click. Publish.

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255.029 - 277.645 Rory O'Driscoll

without relying on engineering. Plus, Framer is built for scale, with premium hosting, enterprise-grade security, and 99.99% uptime SLAs. Whether you want to launch a new site, test a few landing pages, or migrate your full .com, Framer has programs for startups, scale-ups, and large enterprises to make going from idea to live site fast.

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277.625 - 305.587 Rory O'Driscoll

Learn how you can get more out of your .com from a Framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer.com slash 20VC for 30% off. 30% off a Framer Pro annual plan. That's framer.com slash 20VC for 30% off. framer.com slash 20VC. Rules and restrictions may apply. You have now arrived at your destination. Boys, we have a big, big lineup today.

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305.607 - 315.719 Rory O'Driscoll

We're going to start with two monster rounds. It seems the only thing anyone's talking about right now is Anthropic. Anthropic raising 10 billion at a $350 billion price.

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Chapter 8: How will wealth taxes impact the venture capital landscape?

316.199 - 320.745 Rory O'Driscoll

Is this the last round before they go public? How do we feel about the price? Over to you.

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321.205 - 336.507 Jason Lemkin

Probably yes on the first question. because they've stated they want to, and it feels like they can. And if someone says they want to do something and it feels like, and that thing is doable, then logically it should get done. So yeah, I think it probably would be the last one before the IPO. And you know, how do you pay with the price?

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336.527 - 347.725 Jason Lemkin

Look, when they raised at 160, I mean, I remember internalizing, we talked about it. And frankly, we talked about it in our partnership. You kind of go big number, wow, that's the second or third largest private cap valuation ever.

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348.046 - 363.555 Jason Lemkin

And then you look at the market traction and the revenue traction and you go on a revenue multiple basis, it's cheaper than some of the stuff we're doing at 200 and 100 pre. Because this is a company that's gone from... It's easy to remember the numbers for Anthropic because they very kindly did them in round units of 10.

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363.535 - 383.122 Jason Lemkin

They went from 100 million at the end of 23 run rate to a billion at the end of 24 run rate to allegedly about between 9 and 10 billion at the end of 25. So let's assume those numbers are roughly correct. They 10x-ed two years in a row. I don't know. Next year, let's just say they only, quote, only 3x. So they go to 30 billion.

383.463 - 406.899 Jason Lemkin

Now, a rule of thumb is I'm going to go now from ARR and run rate at the end. to gap revenue for the year, a rule of thumb says, take the opening ARR, the closing ARR, and calculate the average. 10 billion, 30 billion, average is 20 billion. That says they do actual gap revenue of 20 billion next year. So it's 17 times NTM revenue. It's a much lower revenue multiple than Palantir.

407.239 - 427.27 Jason Lemkin

It's kind of comparable with Cloudflare, for God's sake, in the public markets. So you do that math. If the growth is there for one more year, it looks cheap. It's the old rule. It turns out you really, really can pay up for anything that goes 10x year on year. So that's the bet. And the guys who did it at 170 three months ago are feeling pretty smart now. There are 2x in four months.

427.591 - 435.443 Harry Stebbings

Calculate that IRR, Harry. Only raising 10 billion, it's actually a sign that the unit economics are probably healthy.

435.575 - 436.216 Jason Lemkin

That's a good point.

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