Canada’s housing market is heading into the final months of 2026 with a problem few expected earlier this year: just as affordability was finally improving, borrowing costs are threatening to move higher again.The U.S. Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, lifting its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. More importantly for Canadians, U.S. bond yields have surged, with the 10-year Treasury reaching 5%. Canadian fixed mortgage rates don't operate in isolation, and continued pressure on global bond markets could keep Canada's five-year yield elevated even if the Bank of Canada initially stays on the sidelines.But markets aren't expecting the Bank to remain there forever.At the time of recording, market pricing implied a 59% chance of a Bank of Canada hike in October and an 85% chance by December, with the equivalent of five increases being priced by July 2027. Those expectations can change quickly, but if even a portion materializes, the implications for housing could be significant. After three years of improving affordability, higher rates could reverse some of that progress and further weaken buyer demand heading into 2027.And demand is already exceptionally soft.National home sales fell another 0.7% in August and were down 6.9% year-over-year. Year-to-date activity is running at its weakest level since 2003. Vancouver is experiencing an even deeper slowdown, with sales volumes near multi-decade lows and benchmark prices down almost 6% from last year.September isn't providing much evidence of the traditional fall-market rebound either. Through the first 15 days, Greater Vancouver recorded 868 sales, slightly below the already weak 892 recorded during the same period in 2025. The decline is only 3%, but the bigger story is the absolute level of activity: buyers remain remarkably hesitant.That hesitation is showing up elsewhere.More than 5,000 completed but unsold condos are now sitting across Metro Vancouver, representing approximately $4.45 billion of inventory. Burnaby alone accounts for 1,332 units. Surprisingly, larger homes make up a disproportionate share of that inventory, challenging the idea that simply building larger units guarantees stronger end-user demand.Development stress is spreading beyond residential projects as well. Frameworks, a proposed office and light-industrial development at 1725 Clark Drive, has entered receivership. The site was purchased for $30.5 million in 2019 but is now assessed at just $16.7 million, illustrating how dramatically land values, financing costs and development economics have shifted.Perhaps the most important leading indicator, however, is confidence. The real-estate outlook component of consumer sentiment recently experienced its sharpest two-week decline since January 2025. Housing markets run on affordability, employment and credit, but they also run on confidence. When buyers believe waiting could produce a better opportunity, transactions can remain depressed even when households have the financial capacity to purchase.And Canadians certainly have assets. Household net worth has surpassed a record $19 trillion, rising 2.9% in the second quarter. Canadian households now hold approximately $6.80 in assets for every dollar of debt, up substantially from 2010.That creates the central question heading into 2027: is Canada's enormous household wealth creating pent-up housing demand waiting to be released, or will higher rates and declining confidence keep that money on the sidelines?Right now, Vancouver's unusually quiet fall market suggests buyers are still choosing patience. If borrowing costs rise into 2027, that patience could last considerably longer._________________________________ Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlifeDan Wurtele, PREC, [email protected] Dash PREC778.898.0089 [email protected] www.thevancouverlife.com

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