Bitcoin just flashed one of its most reliable historical buy signals — dipping below its 200-week moving average twice in two weeks, a setup Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo says has delivered 113% MEDIAN returns over the following year (and 313% over two years), with median time to break even of just TWO DAYS. The signal has only triggered on roughly 10% of all trading days since 2017. But the bull case lands into a brutal backdrop: Add Franklin Templeton filing BTC-reinvesting dividend ETFs, BlackRock's BITA pitched as "too big to ignore" for income investors, and Illinois passing the most punitive crypto tax in the country — and today's setup is the wildest bull/bear divergence we've seen all cycle. We break down whether Kraken's 113% historical signal will hold against Saylor's structural crisis, what miners going below cost actually means, and whether BTC's two-day median break-even is the bull case nobody's talking about. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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