Latino voters swing back
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How did Latino voter support for Trump change between 2020 and 2024?
If you dig into the numbers, one trend becomes undeniable since 2024. Latino voters have turned on Donald Trump. Take a look at this data. According to Pew Research, only 66% of the Latino voters who backed Trump in the last presidential election still approve of his job performance. That's down 27 percentage points since the start of his second term. And these days, 68% of Latinos fully support Democrats. That's a whopping 43-point swing since the last presidential election. So, what's driving this drastic shift? And how has our understanding of the Latino electorate changed over the last few cycles?
Latinos often get given the title the sleeping giant. We should be called the swinging giant based on how much shift we have seen election to election.
This week on America actually, I talked to Stephanie Valencia, co-founder and president of Eckies, and she'll break down the Latino electorate. Plus, Democratic congressional candidate Manny Rootnell. What do politicians and parties get wrong about Latino voters? Let's dig in.
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Maybe it's Maybelline. When we talk about the Latino electorate, what are we actually talking about? Mexican Americans in California are way different than Cubans in Miami, and someone who lives on the Texas border may share little in common with Latinos in Michigan or Wisconsin, which is why I wanted to talk to Stephanie Valencia. Stephanie co-founded Equis, a political research firm that digs into the nitty-gritty when it comes to Latino. Latino voters. And in 2024, they published the Latino Playbook, which is full of great nuggets about how political campaigns can reach this all important voting block. So what do campaigns get wrong? What are the misconceptions when it comes to Latino voters? And how has Donald Trump changed everything?
Let's ask Stephanie. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate your time. Thank you for having me. Okay, so X has called Latinos one of the last great wild cards in American politics. Is that because of some of the double-digit swings that we've seen among this voting group over the past few elections?
Yes, it absolutely has to do with that. You know, we uh Latinos often get given the title the sleeping giant, which I just want to rid that out of everybody's vocabulary. We should be called the swinging giant based on how much shift we have seen election to election. A third of Latinos consider themselves kind of independent or apolitical nonpartisan. And that's that swinging middle that really is deciding everything. Every single election.
Obviously, when we talk about the Latino diaspora, that means a lot of stuff. I mean, how much should we consider this even a joint group amongst itself? Because when you mention, you know, a third of Latino voters consider themselves independent, part of my head goes to like, do we know specifics about that? Are we talking about South Americans or folks who come from Central America? Like, places of origin seem to matter a lot here. What do we know about? about that makeup when we talk about the Latino Electric.
Well, you know, there are probably in this point in time, you know, this has not always been true, but the at this point in time that we find ourselves in more in common across subgroups of country of origin.
What does the “swinging giant” metaphor reveal about Latino voting trends?
So, you know, we saw shifts among every subgroup of Latinos. So whether you were Puerto Rican, Cuban, Colombian, or Mexican in 2024, all of those groups shifted. Men shifted. All of those shifted to the right and more people voted for Trump. So you see even saw that among gender. A lot of attention was paid to Latino men and whether or not Latino men shifted more. The truth is when you peel back the onion, you go back beyond 2024 and you actually look over the last 10 years, Latino women have shifted more over that period of time than men had.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
How did Latino voter support for Trump change between 2020 and 2024?
0:00–3:52
2
What does the “swinging giant” metaphor reveal about Latino voting trends?
3:52–13:01
3
Which Latino sub‑groups shifted the most and why?
13:01–23:07
4
Why is the economy the single biggest issue for Latino voters today?
23:07–28:13
5
What are the two biggest mistakes campaigns make when targeting Latino voters?
28:13–31:35