Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
This is The Guardian. Sometimes he affects not to really care about the Strait of Hormuz and other times he seems almost desperate to get this resolved.
And so we did a little detour and it's working out very nicely. They have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti-aircraft equipment.
We are seeing a Trump that's less worried about concerns back home because, after all, he's not going to stand for election himself, and someone who is more concerned about the legacy he leaves on the world stage. He's less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us.
Chapter 2: What is Project Freedom and why was it launched?
Donald Trump has launched a new operation, Project Freedom, to try and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But could it cause a major re-escalation of the war with Iran and bring an end to the ceasefire? From The Guardian's Today In Focus, this is The Latest with me, Lucy Hoth. Well, joining me down the line from Jerusalem is Julian Borger, our senior international correspondent.
Thanks for dialing in, Julian. It's lovely to have you on the show.
Chapter 3: How does the Strait of Hormuz impact global oil trade?
So it's now nearly a month since the ceasefire was agreed between the US and Israel and Iran. And in sort of military terms, things felt like they were settling down.
But there has been this continued tension over the Strait of Hormuz, this vital crossing where one fifth of the world's oil passes through that has caused such damage to the world's economy with a blockade imposed by either side there. There has been a re-escalation with the US sending in the last 24 hours ships to the Strait. Iran is now saying things haven't even begun.
Are we looking at a situation where things could really kick off again in military terms?
Yeah, absolutely. Because what this new initiative does is it brings U.S.
Chapter 4: What are the potential military implications of Project Freedom?
warships close to Iranian ships, small boats, drones. And so as they're in proximity to each other in a very tight waterway, then the chance of something blowing up are much greater than they were yesterday.
OK, well, that sounds very alarming. And this is a new initiative announced by the US yesterday by Donald Trump called Project Freedom. What does this actually entail?
Well, what they're offering is an alternative route out of the Strait of Hormuz. that would go well south of the established shipping channels and kind of hug the coast and go within Omani territorial waters. And what they're saying to the ships that are trapped in the Gulf is, if you follow this route, we'll be watching you. We can protect you from afar, but we have lots of things in the air.
Chapter 5: How has Iran responded to increased US military presence?
We have helicopters and planes and anti-drone capabilities. And we will also help guide you through what is a very perilous and narrow channel to get out of the strait and to escape the Gulf. The US bet is that the shipping companies and also the crews on these ships are desperate enough to take that risk under US protection.
Yeah, because there's a real human aspect to this story as well, isn't there, Julian, in the sense that there are at least 800 ships currently trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and have been stuck for nearly three months now with crews of around 20,000 people. Do you think this will stand any chance of succeeding?
Yeah, I think that there is a chance. I think what shipping owners are doing at the moment is watching what happens to the first few ships. Two have been confirmed so far, seeing what happens and see if other ships get out. And it's possible that others will decide they were going to take the chance just to get their ships and to get their crews out.
But at the moment, on the whole, the shipping owners, from what we hear, and certainly the insurance companies are very cautious about this.
Chapter 6: What challenges do shipping companies face in the Strait of Hormuz?
What they want and what they're holding out for is an agreement between Iran and the US that they will both lift their blockades and let all the shipping out and open the strait again. That's what Iran has put on the table, the kind of mutual lifting, but without any discussion about the other issues like nuclear and security. And that's something that the U.S. has not gone for.
Instead, they've gone for this sort of more unilateral solution of trying to open a channel out of the strait without Iran's permission.
Yeah, and that's what the international community certainly wants as well, a sense of US-Iranian cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, not this risk of conflict, as you say, with these warships in very close proximity to each other. So why has Trump gone for this unilateral approach, do you think? Is it because oil prices have shot to as high as $114 a barrel?
Is that what's driving it, do you think? Or is there something else that we can read into his psyche?
Chapter 7: Why is a US-Iran agreement crucial for regional stability?
Well, sometimes he affects not to really care about the Strait of Hormuz and he says, well, high oil prices help U.S. oil producers. But on other times, he seems almost desperate to get this resolved because high petrol prices in the U.S. are beginning to buy. Also, he has a trip going to China and the Chinese government, a major importer of Iranian oil,
buys about 80% of Iranian oil, is not happy about what is happening. And Trump had a whole agenda about what he wanted to talk about in Beijing. But now it looks like, you know, if the situation is unresolved, he's going to be just answering questions about the state of Hormuz and be on the back foot. So, you know, he is under pressure to get something done to move the status quo.
Yeah, and facing pressure not just internationally, but also domestically, where he's facing record disapproval ratings.
Chapter 8: What role does Israel play in the current geopolitical landscape?
Six in 10 Americans now disapprove of his presidency, which will be very worrying for him as we approach the November midterms. Is that playing into all of this decision making, basically to speed things up in a war that has proved much more complex than perhaps he and his Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, anticipated?
Clearly, they were expecting a quick win, regime change within weeks. This is what, in particular, Israel promised was going to happen. Hasn't worked out like that. But it hasn't quite worked out as many Trump watchers would have imagined, too. They imagined that he would fold over high oil prices, inflation, unpopularity. And so far, he hasn't. He's stuck with this demand that Iran...
gives up its nuclear program, its uranium enrichment program altogether, so far, you know, has been fairly inflexible over that. And so we are seeing something a bit different, maybe a Trump that's less worried about political concerns back home, because after all, he's not going to stand for election himself.
And Trump is usually all about himself and someone who is more concerned about the kind of legacy he leaves on the world stage. There was recently a very disturbing article in The Atlantic magazine which said he's less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us.
And this idea of what impact you leave on the world stage when you're gone.
Yeah, a terrifying prospect, Julian. So you mentioned Israel and obviously this being an Israeli initiative in the first instance or Trump entering this war under pressure from Netanyahu's government to do so. Where does Israel stand in all this now?
Israel is a bit out of the loop at the moment because they had promised that regime change would happen relatively quickly. It didn't. And as the war has gone on, Israel has found itself more and more out of the picture. It doesn't get briefings on the peace talks, as far as we know from the Israeli press, quoting senior IDF officials.
And so it's not been consulted, except when it comes to Lebanon, where Trump has sort of imposed a ceasefire, a partial ceasefire at least, on the Israelis, which they are chafing under. But at the moment, they are sort of out of the picture, but very much willing to get back into the picture if full-scale war with Iran restarts The IDF is telling people they have a lot of targets yet to hit.
This was a strategic aim to weaken Iran permanently. And as far as the IDF are concerned, it's a job half done.
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