Chapter 1: What recent events are influencing the conflict in Iran?
Next, as the war in Iran continues, questions build about when and how it will end. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaya Khalis, this morning said that threats from Iran could become more dangerous if nuclear experts are not involved in peace talks.
This follows comments from President Trump yesterday, who said he was prepared to wait for the best deal to end his conflict with Iran, telling reporters at the White House, I don't want to rush myself. The uncertainty is adding to growing concern around energy prices. The EU Energy Commissioner has said it could be months and maybe years until we see prices drop.
With more on this, I'm joined on the line by Alistair Bunkle, Sky News foreign correspondent, and by Matt Frey, Channel 4 presenter and Europe editor. Good morning to you both. Alistair, I might start with you. Very sobering comments from EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen, who has warned that holiday flights this summer will very likely be affected.
Yeah, we did an interview with him earlier this week, and he was pretty blunt, wasn't holding back. I think we've seen with some of the airlines, of course, sort of understandably because of their market position, they don't want to scare consumers. But the EU is aware of that. of the risks, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for much longer.
The EU as a block imports around 40% of its aviation fuel, of which around half of that comes or would normally come through the Strait of Hormuz. So they know that there is a ā well, in the words of Dan Jorgensen, it is already a crisis, a crisis ā as big as 1973 and 2001 combined. So in their eyes, it is already very, very bad. But of course, it could get much worse.
And whilst there are stocks generally around Europe and different countries have different levels of stock depending on capacity and where they are. It doesn't take many more weeks for this situation to continue, and those stocks will dwindle. And as we head into the summer holiday season, it could have a real impact on people's ability to fly around Europe.
Yeah, and you were talking, I think, to Italy's Civil Aviation Authority as well.
Yeah. And they were suggesting, think about holidaying at home. Now, some people might say it's OK if you live in Italy. You've got lovely sunshine and you can head down the Amalfi Coast or you can go to Tuscany or to Sicily. But, you know, I think the point they were making was was a serious one.
Look upon it possibly, and I think maybe they're sort of getting ahead of themselves slightly, but look upon it as being like the COVID days where travel might be restricted, certainly more expensive. Perhaps flights might even be cancelled, you know, and give some thought to holidaying at home.
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Chapter 2: How are energy prices affected by the situation in Iran?
20,000 flights, which... And Lufthansa, for those who don't know, most people will assume it's a German airline, but it's one of the largest airline groups in Europe. So it includes Austrian, Swiss Airlines, Brussels Airlines, for example. So, you know, quite a wide range of coverage. And they've taken the step to cancel 20,000 flights.
Some airlines, I think KLM, have cancelled much, much smaller numbers, but still make cancellations. Others are... hiking the prices of their tickets, particularly for long-haul flights to pay for the increased fuel charges. Incidentally, the EU, again, as a sort of a collective, have been paying around
500 million euros more every single day to import fossil fuels over the last six weeks since the iran war started so you know these are kind of these are financial economic impacts yeah i'm looking at the price of a barrel of brent crude it's just over the hundred dollar a barrel mark at the moment and that is a big shock to uh what it was and the eu has announced measures to try and limit the effect of the energy crisis alistair how effective are they likely to be
Yeah, I mean, this is something, well, the measures first. I mean, it is looking to try and sort of move away from dependency on fossil fuels. I mean, this is nothing particularly new in the EU to try and promote clean energy. So heat fuel pumps, solar panels, driving electric cars, for example.
You know, that is a long-term strategy for the EU, both for sort of its green credentials, but also to try and wean itself off dependency on, you know, what before the Ukraine war was Russia in a big part. Now they have successfully done that to some degree, but, you know, there's still a dependency on the Middle East, there's still a dependency on America.
So to try and make it less dependent when crises like this come along. And I did say, well, you know, I mean, that's okay. That's all very well. And I was talking to the EU commissioner. But in the short term, is that going to make an effect? And his opinion was, it might well do.
If member states drop or lower taxes, for example, on electric vehicles, then what they have seen in the past, particularly after the Ukraine war, is that people will buy electric vehicles. And so I think it's a combination of long-term and short-term planning. But it is definitely an indication of the EU trying to make itself more self-sufficient, more autonomous.
I imagine Donald Trump didn't imagine that increasing demand for green technology was going to be one of the consequences of his actions.
No, I mean, America in America is self-sufficient in terms of its broadly sufficient in terms of its energy production. And so that is why they have a bit of a cushion, a bit of a pillow against what is happening in Australia. But only only to a certain degree. The globalized economy means that you're never shielded entirely from world events at all.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the EU's energy policies amid the crisis?
the IRGC said, well, actually, not so fast. We're not going to do that. We're still going to be charging you money if you want to get through, and we will only let those tankers through that we permit, and those who don't will be fired on. And then, indeed, they did fire on some of those tankers. At the same time, there was a promise from the civilian leadership
to stop enrichment of uranium, perhaps indefinitely. Again, that was then shut down by the people who were actually running the show, and that seems to be the Revolutionary Guard cause. So I think within Iran itself, you have a hardening of positions.
Although this is not official, we do know that the supreme leader, who was an umbrella figure for all the different agencies of the Iranian state, and those splits go back decades, well, he was killed on day one. That was not such a great idea, it turns out, and I think even Donald Trump has clocked that one.
And the Nepo Ayatollah, his son, the next supreme leader, who's not been seen in public because he's probably too disfigured and too injured to appear in public, you know, has been putting out statements.
But really, frankly, no one thinks that this man has any great degree of authority and can replace his father as the kind of supreme leader who was able to, you know, unite all the factions behind him.
Okay, Alistair, final question for you. EU leaders meeting in Cyprus today again. Is there anything they can do in practical terms to have any influence on the outcome here?
Well, I mean, firstly, they can, as we were discussing beforehand, they can make sure that what they're doing within the bloc itself is sufficient to ward off any kind of crises that might be coming quite rapidly down the road. So I think, first and foremost, it's making sure that They've got themselves in terms of influencing the blockade.
I think the EU is a bloc less so sort of EU or European countries as we've been seeing when I say European countries, because of course the UK is playing a role in this. So a sort of
slightly separated from NATO, from the EU, but looking to see how Europe can help with securing the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a peace deal, although you could potentially question if there is a negotiated peace deal, if the Strait of Hormuz is opened, will it need policing at all? But I think it's limited, to be honest. We've seen
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