Tom Bilyeu's Impact Theory
America First Unveiled: Trump’s High Stakes Gamble and the Future of Global Power | Tom's Deepdive
20 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is Trump's shift from peacemaker to power broker about?
If you think Trump's shift from being the peace president to the smash and grab president is just random chaos, you do not understand the moment we are living in.
This moment is an unprecedented moment of disruption and danger, and what America does next is going to have a massive impact on the world order and your finances.
in a turn of events so sudden it has given even some of Trump's most die-hard supporters whiplash, Trump has gone from settling a bunch of wars all over the world to flash invasions, snatching up dictators, and threatening military action against Europe if Denmark doesn't hand over Greenland. He said, and this is almost a direct quote, Greenland has to be ours for national security reasons.
We are going to get it, and we can do this The easy way or the hard way? The man refuses to rule out military invasion of one of Denmark's territories. Denmark? A country in Europe? This is wild.
Chapter 2: How is America's military strategy impacting global power dynamics?
It is a turn of events that for most seems completely incoherent. Most people, especially those that already hate Trump, are thinking this is simply Trump being the dictator they always knew him to be.
In fairness, that's a pretty reasonable take for someone to have given that Trump has explicitly said he doesn't care about international law and the only thing that governs what he does is his own morality.
But if you think Trump is just some power-mad lunatic running riot, you're not seeing what's actually happening and I don't think it takes a big leap to get to the heart of what's really going on. We'll get into more of this shortly, but first you have to understand the liberal world order has broken down.
It is once again obvious that the world we live in is actually governed by raw power and there is no country currently more powerful than the US and Trump knows that. But he also knows that as of right now, today, our power is an ice cream cone melting in the sun of inflation and reckless spending. And he only sees one way forward. The reality is that Trump is not afraid to bully.
And if he's going to keep America in the lead, even if only in the Western hemisphere, then he's going to have to press the advantage that we currently have because it's not gonna last forever.
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Chapter 3: What does the breakdown of the liberal world order mean for the U.S.?
But while it does, Trump believes we need to cement our authority. And given the consequences of not doing so, he's almost certainly right about that. As such, Trump is running what I'll call a dominance or bust strategy. It's an insane gamble that puts the entire world order at risk.
But honestly, it's better than capitulating to Klaus Schwab and the global elite who have given us 30 years or more of an increasingly K-shaped economy or just simply managing America's decline and letting China become the global hegemon bullying everyone. But no matter. how necessary reaffirming our leadership may be, Trump's dominance or bust strategy is incredibly risky.
And if it doesn't pay off, the dollar could decline rapidly and or we could see ourselves taking another massive step towards a literal World War III. So here is the very uncomfortable truth. What Trump is doing right now
Chapter 4: How does Trump's dominance or bust strategy affect global relations?
isn't about one man's ego, or at least not just about one man's ego. It's about a nation locked in a cold war with its largest rival, jockeying for global position and reestablishing our dominance so that we don't have to face any unnecessary challengers who might think we're weak. The global order America helped build after World War II gave us decades of prosperity.
But over time, it morphed into something extractive, something that was financialized and globalized and allowed the infamous global elite to use debt and money printing to quietly rob the masses while rewarding the connected few.
So to understand what's happening and respond in a way that will allow you to win, even if at only the individual level, even if cracks appear in society that gets serious enough to disrupt countries, You have to understand the following. This is a populist moment. They have happened many times before in history. They are moments of tremendous inequality.
And the politicians that rise up during these times are what is known as strongmen.
Chapter 5: What historical patterns explain today's geopolitical tensions?
They're bullies. They come in left-leaning flavors and right-leaning flavors. And regardless of what side they're on, they're elected to flip the tables over, slap the other team around, and grab as many slices of a shrinking pie as they can for their own side. Trump did not create the frustration that led to populism. He was summoned by it.
And no one should be surprised that citizens would hold hands around a summoning circle to call forth a chaos agent when globalism, combined with debt and inflation, has made it impossible for the average person to get ahead. He was elected by the people who could feel their future being stolen from them.
When inflation began eroding the value of the dollar, asset prices skyrocketed as people fled the dollar, and the average person who doesn't own assets, which is the vast majority of humanity, got crushed. That's what happens when the system is rigged to the benefit of elites. Therefore, it was only a matter of time before a figure like Trump arrived on the scene.
Chapter 6: Why is the U.S. focusing on Greenland, Venezuela, and Iran?
The more inequality, the angrier people get. And once they're struggling to make ends meet, they will find a populist leader to come and flip the tables. Okay, hopefully that explains why people want a change in America. But I know it does not explain why Trump is being so reckless with the entire world order that has given us so much prosperity.
So why is Trump being so aggressive internationally? especially with our allies. Why risk overplaying our hand? Our entire way of life is predicated on being able to export some of our inflation. And that only works if the dollar is the reserve currency. And if we piss off enough countries, they will find a way to get out from under the dollar.
Chapter 7: What risks does Trump’s aggressive foreign policy pose?
In fact, even without our current recklessness, countries have been trying to get out from under the dollar for decades. In the late 90s, over 70% of global trade happened in dollars. Now we're down into the 50s. If it drops too much lower, there won't be enough appetite for US debt to continue to prop up our way of life. Because our way of life
requires us to find buyers for roughly $2 trillion a year in debt just to cover the annual federal deficit. Given that, why won't Trump rule out invading Greenland? To understand that, we're going to need some historical context. America came out of World War II in a position no other nation could even dream of.
Europe and Asia were in ruins, bombed out cities, shattered infrastructure, entire economies wiped out.
Chapter 8: How can individuals navigate the current economic uncertainty?
The US though was virtually untouched, no major damage on the homeland. We had the factories still humming, the workforce intact, and we emerged holding a massive chunk of the world's gold reserves and Europe owed us billions from wartime loans and aid. That leverage was massive and we used it. We made the dollar the world's reserve currency at Bretton Woods.
The whole economic system of the world was built around the dollar. People, companies, and countries the world over traded in dollars, settled in dollars, and held their savings in dollars. That gave us the power to run the world's strongest economy, largely built on debt. We could borrow cheaply, spend massively, buy the world's goods, and everyone else was forced to cater to us.
It allowed us to build an incredible way of life as Americans. For decades, it was rising wages, cheap imports, home ownership, the full American dream. Unfortunately, that age of seemingly endless prosperity lulled us to sleep, allowed us to fall prey to what every empire before us has fallen prey to, debt and the subsequent need to print money.
Inevitably, when you hold the reserve currency, your government and your central bank are going to abuse the privilege. Everyone ever has done it. As such, ours created money out of thin air through what's known as fractional reserve lending, and then they charge interest on this money that they just created out of thin air. The Fed became the ultimate money printer.
We made anyone trading, settling, and saving dollars share in the burden of our budget shortfalls. and the world simply had to accept it because the dollar was the only game in town. Fast forward to the end of the Cold War and the USSR collapses in 1991. Suddenly, it's a unipolar world. America stands alone as the superpower. But globalism starts accelerating like never before.
and elites worldwide begin to understand how they can abuse this system. Bankers, politicians, multinational corporations, the Klaus Schwab of it all, they all begin to fantasize about coordinating everything. It would allow them to extract value from everyone, everywhere, all at once using debt.
no more national barriers getting in the way, and thus the era of the global K-shaped economy begins to boom and the populace begins to hate the global elite. The top 1% pull away from everyone else at warp speed through asset ownership and everyone else, unbeknownst to them, gets robbed blind via inflation.
and thus the populace begins to hold hands around the summoning circle to find that agent of chaos that is going to give a big middle finger to the global elite to break the world order. And then, a series of crises hit, one after another, The dot-com bubble burst in 2000, weakening the system. The 2008 housing collapse sends the global economy into free fall.
And then COVID-19 pushes the world economy to the edge. And all the people around the summoning circle have found their man. Because each time, the response is the same. Money printer go brr. And that drives inequality massively. More debt and more money printing to avoid acute catastrophe
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