TRIGGERnometry
Live Reaction to Makerfield By-Election with Dan Hodges and Julia Hartley-Brewer
19 Jun 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: What were the key factors in Andy Burnham's by-election victory?
What was broadly an attempt to outflank Restore on the right and convince Restore voters, Nigel Farage and Reform were as hardcore on these issues as Restore were. And the broader attempt to engage with the electorate, the wider electorate, an electorate, by the way, that as we now know, was broadly lining up behind Andy Burnham, went out of the window.
And I think that is kind of part of the problem that we're seeing replicated nationally for Reform and Farage at the moment.
And Julia, what have you got to say to that? Do you broadly agree?
Yeah, I agree with an awful lot of that. I mean, certainly what happened at the Reform Conference was utterly bizarre. I mean, some things you can never sort of unsee or unhear. But it troubles me to this day. Look, there's no question at all, you know, reform have been very focused and very rattled by Restore. There's such personal animosity between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe.
Although again, you know, this isn't unusual territory for Nigel Farage. He is a man who has made a lot of enemies over the years, and there's no question at all, reform is, you know, there may be many other figures like Robert Jenricks and the
So you serve some Richard Tyson's notes, but fundamentally it is a one man band in the sense that what Nigel Farage says goes, it's his party and what he says goes. And a lot of people won't put up with that. He would say his instincts are better than other people's.
on this front, that's why he's been, let's be honest, the most successful politician, influential politician, I should say, of his generation in terms of Brexit and what he's done. However, yeah, there are definitely rattles.
But one of the reasons why Restore has been able to win so much popularity and was winning people over in Makerfield is because of Nigel Farage and Reform's attempts, which we've been seeing, to become more a government in waiting, not a protest party. Here are some policies.
lining up people, which they, you know, I think in a rather silly way, call, you know, shadow Home Secretary, shadow Chancellor, their spokespeople. They haven't got spokespeople for lots of other key roles, like, you know, I have got education as well, a braveman, but, you know, defence and other issues, they haven't yet got those spokespeople properly in place.
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Chapter 3: What insights did Dan Hodges gain from talking to voters during the by-election?
And those have been coming out pretty, you know, pretty fast and furious in recent weeks, far quicker than, what we've been seeing from the Conservatives. So part of that move from reform to sort of appeal to, you know, middle England, to the people who would have voted Labour, voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 to get Brexit done.
Those people who angry with the Tories, but just want any government that isn't a Labour government or God forbid, a Labour green coalition And they're trying to sort of professionalize themselves now with varying levels of success, as we've seen. But crucially, part of doing that makes them look a little bit more sort of establishment than Rupert Lowe and what he's doing.
And some of the, let's face it, very, very unsavoury elements who support the Restore Party, including the likes of, you know, the Tommy Robinsons and some, as has been publicised a lot in the last few days, some, you know, blatant neo-Nazis, let's call them what they are.
The left has been throwing the term far right out at anybody who voted for Brexit or isn't a full-on climate change hysteric. So those two words have lost their meaning. But I mean genuinely far right. And as everyone knows, elections in Britain aren't like in Europe, aren't one at the fringes. They aren't one on left and right, not by socialists, not by the fascists, they're one in the middle.
And that has its own problems because then you're too like the Tories. You're not radical enough. You're not progressive in the true sense of the word enough. And I can see that happening. But I don't think that reform have peaked as such. I think we are in the middle, midterm doldrums of, for the love of God, what is going on? When is this going to end?
When are we going to not have to see or hear this awful man starmer ever again? Why don't you guys get on with it? I hear people all the time on the right wing, whether Tories or reform, saying, why isn't there a general election? Why isn't he forced out, not understanding clearly
know how parliament works but i i think that just as with by-elections and with local elections that voters minds get focused at that time and yes you'll get tactical voting from the left absolutely and you'll also get tactical voting on the right and the main issue that comes up i think on the right now is will there be a coalition of some sort will there be some sort of
Either just a, you know, you stand in that seat, we won't really make much effort in that seat, but leave us this seat over here, kind of just quiet behind the scenes, unofficial deal between Tories and reform. Are they in a position, both of them, to make that deal quietly? You know, even if it's not even stated in actual words or on paper.
and that there is likely to be many think a coalition from the Tories and reform after any general election. I think that I've been in this world for a very long time watching this very closely as Dan has as well. And I remember in 2010, when we had the announcements, when we had the coalition government between the Libs and the Tories, it's the end of two party politics.
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Chapter 4: How did the Makerfield by-election reflect public sentiment towards Keir Starmer?
Ā£10 billion of taxpayers' money should go to these women who had to retire a bit later. Oh, no, I've changed my mind. We can't afford that. That took, I think, two days for him to U-turn on. We are literally into Keir Starmer, Mark II in a T-shirt.
I mean, I think I thought what was interesting is I thought we kind of just saw there with Julia's criticism of Andy Burnham. a sort of a replication of the problem reform have just had in Maker Field, which is Andy Burnham's opponents at the moment don't really know what the best line of attack is on Andy Burnham. So we had there simultaneously, he's basically exactly the same as Keir Starmer.
He doesn't know what he believes in, but he's actually somehow a creature of the hard left.
And the last time I heard, I saw, and I'm by no means going to broaden this comparison, but the last time I saw sort of people struggling to sort of get a handle on how to criticise a politician was when the Tories were trying to deal with Blair and couldn't work out whether or not to say he's this slick, slimy politician
sort of deceitful operator who doesn't really believe in anything, or he's actually secretly as hard left and dangerous as the hard left. And if you remember the whole demon eyes thing,
that was going on and there's a bit of that there's a bit of a sort of a demon andy sort of sort of confusion i i i think just come on no but but i mean no but but do you know what i mean people are running people are telling me but people people are simultaneously saying to me andy burnham doesn't believe anything he's always flip-flopping he doesn't believe in anything
And then simultaneously saying he's actually almost as hard left as Jeremy Corbyn. Now, the two can't be the two. The two can't be right. But just just just to step back onto a couple of things in terms of the broader conversation we've been having, the conversation we'll be having moving forward.
There is one thing that we know for certain about Andy Burnham, right, which is he is not Keir Starmer. And before we get into any discussion about, you know, have reform peaked? What's going to happen with Labour? Can Kemi Badnock bring the Tories back to life? The one thing we're going to have to wait for is Keir Starmer's removal. Now, you were talking about the, you know, the predictions.
Everything I'm hearing this evening If Keir Starmer doesn't announce on Monday stepping down or Tuesday or Wednesday stepping down, I'd be amazed. But so I think that's the sort of timeframe we're looking at now. But the key thing is Keir Starmer is such a unique distorting prison within British politics. Because he is so unpopular. He is so despised. We will all have had the experience.
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Chapter 5: How is the Reform Party's strategy perceived after the by-election results?
There we go. Julia Hartley-Brewer, Dan Hodges, thank you so much for a great conversation. Really appreciate you joining us on this Friday evening. I'm sure our audience have loved this. Thank you so much for being here.
Thank you.