UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Hiring, firing, and imprecise data'

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Recorded06 Jun 2025

Publishersecure.ubs.com

Handlerec:4542691

Show notes

The US May employment report is due, with the regular reminders that this data has become increasingly unreliable in recent years, and average earnings are not wages. This month’s data will correct errors that crept into last month’s data. Signs of weakness in restaurant and leisure travel sectors mean fewer lower paid workers may be employed, raising average earnings without affecting wages. But, the Federal Reserve’s “data dependency” means the labor market is seen as a trigger for policy action.

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