UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - UBS House View

24 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, Jason outlines the events that are set to take place that will not only determine the investment landscape through year-end, though also sh...

Sustainable Investing Perspectives with Amy O’Brien (Nuveen) and Amantia Muhedini (UBS CIO)

24 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

For this month we focus on the 2024 proxy season, including a review of expectations, a look at some notable trends and themes, along with comparisons...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Politics, sadly, is in focus'

24 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week has a lot of politics in it, and markets are rarely that good at pricing political risk. The US presidential debate may make investors pay a...

Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS Rulings (continued), G7 Summit, Russia-North Korea pact

21 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week we follow-up on rulings issued by the Supreme Court, including US tax on foreign business income. Shane also provides some takeaways from t...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Following inflation lower'

21 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday’s central bank decisions support the trend of following inflation lower. The Swiss rate cut reflected a desire to stabilize real rates, no...

Top of the Morning: 2024 Second-half market outlook

20 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With the halfway point of 2024 having arrived, we reflect on how market and macro conditions have evolved thus far, and share expectations for the bal...

Around the Horn: Monthly Fixed Income Roundtable with UBS Asset Management

20 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they prov...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rate cuts are coming?'

20 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Bank of England offers some excitement as investors await the start of the UK interest rate easing cycle. That start is probably not today, but sh...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The EU’s naughty list'

19 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

May UK inflation data was as expected across the multiple measures released today. Headline consumer price inflation was 2%. The decline in inflation ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Eight points down'

18 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Eurozone final May consumer price inflation is very unlikely to change from the initial report. At 2.6% y/y, the rate is above the ECB’s target, but...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Connecting other dots

17 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week Jason ‘connects the dots’ to make sense of market performance, this in the wake of last week’s inflation data, along with the outcome ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Fun times'

17 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China’s May data dump showed weaker-than-expected industrial production, despite earlier reports of stronger exports. Domestic retail sales were str...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More disinflation, but distorted perceptions'

14 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday’s US producer price inflation numbers added to a general sense of disinflation. However, the lower inflation reported in consumer and prod...

Washington Weekly Podcast: SCOTUS rulings, Decision 2024 update & more

13 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week Shane highlights a slate of rulings expected to be delivered in June by the Supreme Court, updates on the campaign trail (including recent a...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 9)

13 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard covers a range of topics, including a potential timeline for higher for longer rates in the US, the g...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US rate cuts are still coming'

13 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates. Investors have desperately sought additional guidance on policy, putting the fabled dot plots in focus. Thes...

CIO First Take: May CPI data & FOMC meeting

12 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Join Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, and Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, for thoughts and reflections on May inflation data, al...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Overstimulation'

12 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Economists are overstimulated by the US today. We have the excitement of US consumer price inflation. We have the excitement of a Federal Reserve poli...

Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - First-Half Review

11 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As mid-year approaches, we take time to reflect on fixed income performance drivers over 1H24, along with preview performance expectations for the bal...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Disliking uncertainty'

11 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Financial markets dislike any increase in uncertainty. Politics in Europe was judged to have increased uncertainty, and markets responded accordingly....

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - And the beat goes on

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With growth fears last week having eased, investor confidence in a soft-landing having been reinforced, and the S&P 500 having hit an all-time-hig...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The importance of participation rates'

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In any society experiencing a period of economic upheaval, some people do better while others do worse. The causes are complex, but those suffering wa...

CIO House View Monthly Livestream (June)

09 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strate...

Top of the Morning: May Jobs report, Fed preview, & the week ahead

07 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we close out another trading week, Brian Rose recaps the May employment data and provides a health check on the US labor market. We also preview n...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The ECB creaks toward a cutting cycle'

07 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As expected, the ECB offered a 0.25-percentage-point rate cut, with general vagueness about the future. The rationale was also as expected—interest ...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Remembering D-day, Dr. Fauci testimony, US Southern border

06 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week Shane reflects on the 80th anniversary of D-day, recap’s Dr. Anthony Fauci’s Congressional testimony, updates on the latest executive ac...

Top of the Morning: Mexico’s Election - Outcome & Investment implications

06 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the wake of Mexico’s election outcome earlier this week, Gaby outlines the results, weighs in on the market response, and shares the investment i...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Cuts, continuity, clarification'

06 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

There is a strong consensus about today’s ECB policy rate decision. A total of 53 out of 55 surveyed economists expect a 0.25% rate cut, and ECB Chi...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 8)

05 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard explains the underestimated importance of the upcoming European elections, football championships, an...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Polling problems'

05 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Japan published some labor market data, with April cash earnings. On a like-for-like comparison, these were somewhat weaker than expected (and they re...

How should I be positioned? with Paula Campbell Roberts (KKR) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

04 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Paula joins Jason in-studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. W...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Immigration and consequences'

04 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US provides the main data releases. JOLTS data on job vacancies is expected to continue to decline. The initial surge in vacancies in 2021 was str...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Convergence

03 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

To begin the week (and a new month), Jason reflects on May market performance drivers, and outlines what investors should be mindful of throughout the...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'policy-politics-and-prices'

03 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Federal Reserve President Kashkari has advocated a significant tightening of central bank policy, by raising real interest rates (keeping nominal rate...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 7)

31 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets and life are full of conundrums. This week, our Viewpoints podcast addresses at least three current ones. Some of them have unexpected resol...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'An important day in the US'

31 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We get fresh evidence on the hedonism of the US consumer, with personal income and spending numbers. The personal consumer expenditure deflator will b...

Around the Horn: Monthly Fixed Income Roundtable with UBS Asset Management

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they prov...

House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Cl...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trussing up Treasuries?'

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday equities were a little upset because bonds were a little upset because of weaker demand at a US bond auction. Should investors be upset? Thi...

Behavioral Finance: Action Bias 101

29 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We explore the behavior of action bias, including a look at when it might and might not makes sense for one to adjust their investment approach, along...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Shades of beige'

29 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The entertainment from the US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey comments did not disappoint. Several would be met with a disparaging “OK, boomer” if...

Global Livestream: A broadening rally - The world beyond NVIDIA

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele and colleagues from around the world discuss the state of play in global markets and recommendations for investo...

Top of the Morning: Global Plastic Reduction - The challenge & potential solutions

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Today we spotlight the May edition of the monthly Sustainable Investing Perspectives publication. Among the topics featured within, Amantia highlight...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation hints'

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The UK’s May shop price index showed ongoing non-food deflation, and a slower pace of food price increases as the profit-led inflation episode wanes...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rates cuts, and the power of the story'

27 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

ECB Chief Economist Lane stated the central bank is ready to cut rates. We have heard this from other ECB governing council members, but Lane’s rema...

A Conversation with Solita Marcelli and Jeffrey Gundlach

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Solita Marcelli, CIO Americas of UBS, along with Jeffery Gundlach CEO of DoubleLine, share valuable insights and perspectives on the current investmen...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Consumers consuming'

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Japan’s April consumer price inflation was a little dull—the inflation rate slowed more or less as expected, as food prices offered disinflation....

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'The Philosophy of Politics and Economics'

23 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US President Clinton’s admonition “It’s the economy, stupid” puts economists in their proper (superior) place. But which economy? Economists g...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 6)

22 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With US equity indices having recently reached record levels, many investors are wondering how long this momentum can continue (and what might disrupt...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Cutting comments'

22 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

European Central Bank President Lagarde did, after all, offer policy comments yesterday—in an Irish TV interview. Lagarde signaled a June Euro area ...

Fixed Income Roundtable with the UBS Chief Investment Office

21 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, rates, positioning, an...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Russian income – let it go?'

21 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US Treasury Secretary Yellen receives an honorary doctorate today, which gives ECB President Lagarde an opportunity to speak in public. It would be po...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Hard over soft

20 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With US equity markets having reached all-time record closes, Jason weighs the ‘sell in May, and go away’ narrative, and discusses how investors s...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Middle East politics'

20 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Iranian President Raisi has been killed in a helicopter crash. The first vice president becomes interim president, and elections will be called within...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Presidential debates, FAA Bill, Ukraine update

17 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We preview the current calendar for US Presidential debates, unpack the FAA Bill and the implications for consumers, and share takeaways from Secretar...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'China’s vulnerabilities'

17 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China reported stronger industrial production and weaker domestic retail sales. If these figures are accurate, they present some risks to China’s po...

CIO First Take: April CPI data & Market response

16 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Join members of the UBS Chief Investment Office for some timely thoughts and reflections around the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, and what t...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'A dose of normality'

16 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday’s US consumer price data was less weird—no 4% monthly increases in rent in Detroit (as in March). The detail showed for almost every bus...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 5)

15 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Following a brief Springtime hiatus, we catch-up with Burkhard to hear about his recent travels and the connections that can be drawn from the picture...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Undermining the “data dependency” story'

15 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Federal Reserve Chair Powell wants further inflation declines before the Fed cuts rates. US inflation is already at or near target for the prices over...

Top of the Morning: Fixed Income Strategist - Going longer for higher

14 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We catch-up with Leslie Falconio to discuss how a shift in the Fed’s course for monetary policy has impacted fixed income assets, along with review ...

Top of the Morning: Chinese equities - Comeback or a head fake?

14 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Following a sharp rebound in Chinese equities, Xingchen weighs in as to how investors should treat their Chinese equity exposure, along with cites som...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Inflation numbers of limited interest'

14 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Germany and Spain are offering final consumer price inflation data for April today. Although a lot of data is Europe is revised, the initial estimates...

Value investing in an uncertain world with Bill Ackman and Ryan Israel

13 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Join us for a fireside chat that Mark Axelowitz, Managing Director and UBS Private Wealth Advisor and Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer for CI...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Macro plus Micro Markets

13 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We take inventory of recent market performance and drivers, along with consider the prospects for downside in the markets if certain near-term macro a...

3-Levels Podcast: Considerations for Traditional v. Roth accounts

13 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this episode of 3-Levels, Justin and Ainsley explain the differences between traditional accounts and Roth accounts, including considerations when ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Time to tax'

13 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

More details are emerging about US President Biden’s imminent US consumer tax increases. Some of the tax changes are sizable, with suggestions that ...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Israel-Hamas War, Capitol Hill roundup

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Following a pause of arms shipments to Israel from the US, Shane outlines what the response has consisted of and what might come next. We also cover ...

Top of the Morning: Emerging Markets - Weathering geopolitical tension

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We revisit our conversation on the emerging markets and outline CIO’s current thinking when it comes to equity and fixed income positioning within t...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US tax increases next week?'

10 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Media reports suggest US President Biden plans to announce new taxes on US consumers of products from China, specifically, electric vehicles and solar...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Following Swiss leadership'

09 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Sweden’s Riksbank followed the Swiss National Bank’s leadership with an interest rate cut. The move was generally though not universally expected ...

CIO House View Monthly Livestream (May)

08 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Hear the latest thinking and investment recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office with Dan Scansaroli, Head of Portfolio Strategy & UBS...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Rate cuts ahead?'

08 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Sweden’s Riksbank is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting today (this is a widespread but not a universal expectation). Swedish inflation i...

State of the US Consumer & Brand engagement with Eric Clark (Accuvest)

07 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Eric rejoins the podcast to share his take on how current economic conditions and the rate environment have impacted consumer behavior and spending pa...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Funding consumer spending'

07 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In the Middle East, Hamas accepted a Qatari/Egyptian proposal for a ceasefire, but the Israeli government has rejected it. There are obvious humanitar...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Summer sequel?

06 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we turn the page on a volatile month of April and look ahead to the summer, we consider whether the April FOMC meeting and Employment Report outcom...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Exuberance and the Fed'

06 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A single, dubious quality US data report last Friday was enough to send bond and equity markets into paroxysms of delight. One month’s employment re...

Top of the Morning: April Jobs Report, Fed takeaways & week ahead

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We recap the week that was, including today’s release of the April employment report, Wednesday’s Fed statement and press conference, along with p...

Washington Weekly Podcast: US Southern border, Middle East tour, House Speaker Johnson

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our conversation covers recent developments and potential executive action surrounding the US-Mexico border, Secretary of State Blinken’s Middle Eas...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Employment and trend growth'

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US employment report Friday looms. Around 119,000 companies will be asked about their employees. Around 67,000 companies will not bother to reply. Mar...

Top of the Morning: Positioning within Emerging Market debt

02 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our series of emerging markets conversations continues as we expand on CIO’s view on emerging market debt, along with risks and positioning consider...

CIO Global Livestream: Rising geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns

02 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Chief Investment Officer, Mark Haefele, and colleagues around the world discuss inflation expectations, the outlook and implications of the situation ...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US policy changes'

02 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve announced a slower pace of shrinking its balance sheet. Context is important here—quantitative policy is about the balance betwe...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Profits of the world, unite'

01 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A large part of the world is not working today, in celebration of workers. But the old order is changing—and increasingly we may need to celebrate p...

House Call: Talking Equity Markets with UBS Asset Management

30 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A monthly check on US equity market performance and positioning considerations with Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Private Cl...

Top of the Morning: Muni Market - Trending tax topics

30 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Our conversation outlines some trending tax considerations and developments associated with the muni market. We also spend time reviewing muni-relate...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Another day, another set of inflation data'

30 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Eurozone April inflation data generates less of the tense excitement that a US inflation release can produce. The regional data we have already had su...

Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - UBS House View

29 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

To begin the week, Jason outlines the current market outlook scenarios of the UBS Chief Investment Office, along with recommendations when it comes to...

Around the Horn: Monthly Fixed Income Roundtable with UBS Asset Management

29 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income and Liquidity teams. Together, they prov...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'More inflation data'

29 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Preliminary consumer price inflation numbers for April are due from Germany and Spain. There are no sizeable base effects or peculiarities in these nu...

Talking Markets: Equities edition with Dan Suzuki of Richard Bernstein Advisors

28 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Dan rejoins the podcast to provide his near-to-medium term outlook for the US economy, monetary policy, and equity markets. We also discuss where Dan...

Top of the Morning: The week in review and preview

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As we close out another week (and the month of April), Frank and Barry recap fixed income performance, as well as this week’s notable market moving ...

Viewpoints with Burkhard Varnholt - A global markets podcast (Ep. 4)

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

On this week’s episode, Burkhard reflects on April’s market performance and whether potential adjustments to the timing of Fed rate cuts could imp...

Washington Weekly Podcast: Decision ’24 Polling, Agenda for Congress, US-China relations

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week we examine what national polling in currently pointing to for the race for the White House, including takeaways from this week’s Pennsylva...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Next price measure, please'

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets exhibited a naïve belief in the accuracy of economic data yesterday. US first quarter GDP will probably be revised stronger, and hinted at fu...

Top of the Morning: The CEO Macro Briefing Book quarterly update

25 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Jason and Paul rejoin the podcast in-studio to discuss the second edition of the new CEO Briefing Book quarterly series. We dive into how the macroec...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Guessing games'

25 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US releases its first guess at first quarter GDP (a generally accurate number should be available sometime around 2029 or 2030). The rapid pace of...

Top of the Morning: How to prepare for (potentially) higher taxes

24 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As US taxes are expected to rise (especially for wealthy families), spanning income tax, capital gains tax, and estate tax, Justin and Ainsley join to...

How should I be positioned? with Matt McLennan (First Eagle) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)

24 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Matt rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cut...

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'US defunds Gen Z'

24 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US Senate has passed legislation defunding parts of Gen Z, with a ban on TikTok being allowed in US app stores unless the Chinese owner sells with...