Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

The LAST Ever UJWOB

09 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Love from Jim x

The End Of Season 13 Of UJWOB

28 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A look at Biden’s awful first Presidential debate with Trump, and his 20% fall in betting markets overnight.

Household Debt v Government Debt - It’s Different

27 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And Australia may be out of the cricket (just enjoying typing that) but its inflation numbers sent bond markets lower yesterday.

‘Finely Balanced’ - No BoE Cut, But It’s On The Way.

21 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And a look at Noah Smith’s views on ‘elite overproduction’.

UK Inflation Back To Target. And A Look At The Deutsche Bank Annual Default Study.

19 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The ‘boiling frog’ impact of higher rates on credit is starting to be felt, but no big default rise until 2025.

European Credit Spreads Widen On France Fears

17 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And China leaves rates on hold, despite weak house price news.

Zero Inflation in May, Bond Rally Underway

14 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

But French assets are really struggling, and credit is starting to weaken.

French Bond Markets Wobble. And No Bank of England Reserves Interest Grab From Labour.

12 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Also: a smorgasbord of other bond market ephemera.

What A Week That Was! Elections Hit EM Assets, ECB’s ‘Unhappy’ Cut, And Bumper US Jobs.

10 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

US rate cut now not fully priced until December.

EU Bonds Going Into Global Indices

31 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Could mean less demand for traditional EZ sovereign debt, especially as France risks a downgrade from S&P.

Who’s Best For The Economy - Labour or Conservatives?

28 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Also: credit spreads are tight and stable. It was quiet - too quiet…. And CMBS takes its first big hit since the GFC.

Bank Of England To Skip A June Rate Cut

24 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And it’s not just because of July’s General Election - service sector inflation is too strong. 💪

Doctor Copper Makes A Record High

20 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Does that mean global growth is reaccelerating?

Equity Yields Are Way Below Credit Yields. Does That Make Sense?

15 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And Biden puts 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

US Economic Surprises Rolling Over?

13 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Aggregate US stats are now disappointing- although the rest of the world is doing OK.

Greenspan, ‘Atlas Shrugged’, & 2001 A Space Odyssey

08 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Also: Swedish rate cut, and no more excess savings left in America.

US Employment Weakens, Bonds Rally

03 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

2 year US Treasury bond yields drop from 5% to 4.75% in 2 days.

Why Economics Needs To Be Sexier

01 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And H5N1 (Bird Flu) starts to get attention in financial markets. Gulp.

Gold vs Real Yields

29 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Also: yen intervention at last? And US immigration at 3 million per year.

US Growth Slows Sharply in Q1, But Bonds Don’t Like PCE Inflation. 5% 2 Year Treasury Yields.

26 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And Japanese inflation goes the other way, with a downside shock.

The Tortured Bond Investors Department

22 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Ben Bernanke v the Bank of England.

UJWOB Season 13: Bond Markets Now More Pessimistic Than The Fed On Rate Cuts

19 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And: Skyscraper - I Love You.

India 🇮🇳 Special: Bond Index Inclusion In June, And Economic Outperformance

27 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And RIP behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman.

Anniversaries Galore! And Has The Fed Changed Its Reaction Function?

25 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Looser Fed, so Barclays says ‘buy TIPS’.

Central Banks Getting Fidgety: Moves From Switzerland, Mexico, Taiwan, Japan.

22 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And I take a look at Monetary Policy Rules like the Taylor Rule (Spoiler Alert: the Fed should cut now).

Finally - Good Inflation News For The First Time In Months. UK CPI Below Expectations.

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Also: CPI index rebalancing, corporate default rates, and the extreme injustice of the Nottingham Forest points deduction.

The End Of Negative Interest Rates in Japan 🇯🇵

18 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The BoJ is expected to hike for the first time since 2007 later this week. And the Fed might signal a higher r* via the ‘dot plot’ at this week’...

Why Is The Last Mile The Hardest Mile?

14 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And in credit-land, the NIP (New Issue Premium) has turned negative!

The ‘Right Tail Risk’ Is Fading

11 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The latest US jobs numbers reinforced the market’s view that the economy is resilient, but not re-accelerating.

No Rabbits Left 🐇 For The UK

07 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What does the Budget mean for gilts? And how does ‘tipflation’ get measured in the CPI?

No Sign of Inflation Re-Accelerating In the PCE Deflator Data

29 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And a load of economic ephemera to keep you entertained. Includes a disconnect in the textbooks as to the causes of the Great Depression.

Larry Summers: A ‘Meaningful’ Chance Of A Fed Hike

26 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And the cost of getting your kids driving a car. A drag on economic growth?

Do NVIDIA’s Results Mean That r* Needs To Rise?

23 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The AI boom could raise the world’s cost of capital.

Fiscal Rules: Do Bond Investors Care?

21 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And some economics related pop and rock songs. More needed please!

‘Rishession’ For the UK 🇬🇧

19 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And the Nikkei approaches its 1989 all time time, having fallen by 81% in the meantime.

Government Bonds Start 2024 With A Bit Of A Kicking

09 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And more motorway related urban myths.

Is The Game Up For J-Pow As Trump Attacks?

04 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

And US employment is still on 🔥.

Letter From America: the US Economic Outlook Live From Manhattan

28 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What’s the best New York song by the way? The LCD Soundsystem one? Velvet Underground’s Waiting For My Man? Fairytale of NY? Empire State of Mind?...

How Italy 🇮🇹 Is Financing Its Budget Deficit: Grandma and Grandpa

19 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Also: a shock for the UK economy with a collapse in retail sales.

Why Do Americans Feel So Lousy About The US Economy?

16 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Growth is strong, inflation is back towards target, jobs are plentiful.

Un-Inversion. Upward Sloping Yield Curves Are Back!

12 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lowest 2 year yields since May 2023, despite a stronger than expected CPI print.

Credit Starts 2024 on the Back Foot

08 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Huge supply wave in January.

Season 12 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

05 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Election year - definitely. Soft landing year - maybe.

2024 Fixed Income Outlook: The Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds Special

14 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Man I go on a bit. The stuff about The Pogues is at 38 minutes if you can’t face the rest.

The End of Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

06 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In which Uncle Jim talks you through his brother-in-law’s Spotify Unwrapped.

Alistair Darling, Moral Hazard and Northern Rock

01 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And Eurozone inflation falls by more than expected.

Charlie Munger RIP. And Fed’s Waller Triggers a Bond Rally

29 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Also Noah Smith on productivity

The UK’s Autumn Statement - Whoops We Did It Again?

25 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Gilts underperformed significantly last week on higher borrowing expectations. Don’t worry though - it wasn’t as bad as the Trussonomics sell-off....

The Turning Point? Inflation Falls, Bonds Rally, the Dollar Tanks.

19 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

US CPI for a October came in flat, leading to a big move lower in global bond yields.

US Credit Rating At Risk. UK Growth Stagnates.

13 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

We also have Moody’s looking at Italy’s credit rating this week, with the risk of a downgrade to junk.

Kilkenomics: Oh My God - It’s Kilkenny!

06 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Also today - why you shouldn’t necessarily believe in really old people.

Trump Trades 2024

03 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

What would you do with your portfolio if you knew Trump was going to be next US President?

UJWOB Credit Special Part 2: Banks - The Dave Covey Interview

26 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Banking analyst Dave Covey talks CS AT1s, BoA’s US Treasury bond holdings, CRE lending and so much more.

The 4.99% US Treasury Yield and the Power of Convexity.

22 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Also: ‘Kilts’ and Central Bank Stories.

UJWOB Credit Special: Part 1

16 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A deep(ish) dive into the corporate bond market.

US Service Sector Inflation Kills The Bond Market Rally

13 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And Claudia Goldin wins the Economics Nobel Prize.

US Employment, Flight-to-Quality On Middle East Fears, Italy.

09 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And a belated look at Arslanalp & Eichengreen’s paper on government debt levels. TL;DR - tough to get them down from here given the growth outlook. ...

101 Reasons For The Great Bond Sell-Off

06 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And why Rishi Sunak faces a tricky election timing call given inflation base effects.

A Summary Of Recent Bond & Currency Moves

02 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And Judy Stephenson’s letter to the FT about making sure you use the right inflation numbers when looking at historical building costs.

Are the Monetarists Back?

29 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

If they are, it could mean lower rates, not higher rates…

What Happened to The Pandemic Savings? Pretty Much All Gone I’m Afraid.

25 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Bonds can’t catch a break though. Highest UST yields since 2007.

A Wall of Worry For Bonds

22 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Also: NFTs, AI, Auto Workers’ Strike.

Table Mountain: Fed Holds But Will ‘Proceed Carefully’. UK Inflation Lets BoE Off The Hook.

20 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A Dynamically Priced Episode of IJWOB. Send me a fiver.

Peak Central Bank Rates = Peak Bond Yields?

18 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Lots of central bank activity this week, albeit with a lurking threat from higher oil and rents.

Season 11 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

11 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Is Season 11 ‘The One Where The Fed Stops Hiking’? Find out soon.

UJWOB Summer Special 2023 ☀️

25 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

All your summer bond market fun in one place.

The End of Season 10 of UJWOB

28 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Three central banks, three policy actions. Oooh, and SUPERCONDUCTOR HOPE!

Geek Week For Central Bank Watchers

24 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Fed, ECB and BOJ. Central bankers are spoiling us.

Finally the Bank of England Catches a Break. Better UK Inflation Numbers.

19 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And Chinese property bonds fall.

The Turning Point in the Battle Against Inflation? June’s CPI Cheers Bonds.

17 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

But bad news from the Chinese economy as GDP disappoints.

Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report: Not As Bad As 2007?

12 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The UK banking system is in a solid place. But look out for risks in pension funds, insurers and hedge funds around US Treasury bond exposures.

New Weakness In Bond Markets. Monetary Policy Doesn’t Seem To Be Working.

07 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Rocketing ADP employment data sends markets lower.

Don’t Fight The Fed. And UK Water Bonds In The Spotlight.

30 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Thames Water is making the headlines as its CEO quits. Water bond prices fall.

The Russian Coup, Credit, and Harry Markowitz.

26 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The ruble weakens - but what actually happened this weekend? No answers here I’m afraid.

UK Inflation - Another Shocker. And China’s 2023 Growth Outlook Downgraded.

21 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Core CPI in the UK is still rising.

Fed ‘skips’. Or is it a ‘pause’?

14 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Fed linguistic experts, assemble!

Gilt Yields Spike To Above Trussonomics Levels

13 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Strong labour market data lead to rising Bank of England expectations.

Surprise Rate Hikes From Australia 🇦🇺 and Canada 🇨🇦

09 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And the first signs of weakness in the US jobs market?

Napoleon & the 1814 Gilt Market Scam

03 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And May’s NFP numbers of course.

The 2023 Deutsche Bank Default Study

31 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And lots of disinflationary signs from the global markets and stats…

Is the ‘Moron Risk Premium’ Back For The UK? 🇬🇧

29 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A horrible week for UK gilts after another poor inflation print.

Big Week For The US Debt Ceiling Crisis, and a Big Week For The Bank Of England Too.

22 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Will UK inflation finally head below 10%? Also today we look at US M2 money supply and the expected T-Bill tsunami.

The Economist ‘Front Cover Curse’ Revisited

15 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

This week it’s China. Also some EM updates.

The 14th Amendment: A Constitutional Crisis in the Making?

08 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Countdown to the 1st June Debt Ceiling deadline continues…

Hiking In A Banking Crisis - Not Sure How Kind History Will Be On the Fed & ECB

05 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And look at Sterling go! £££££!

First Republic Bank Is Gone: The US’s Second Biggest Bank Failure in History

02 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Also: the Debt Ceiling and US sovereign CDS.

Bank of Japan 🇯🇵 Special Episode

28 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In which we do NOT get an end to Yield Curve Control. Recorded LIVE from Tokyo.

Season 10 of Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

24 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Summer term starts here. Monetary policy lags, greedflation, and the return of cash.

The End of Season 9 of UJWOB: And Time for Pause in Rate Hikes?

03 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

A round-up of Q1’s fixed income action.

Midjourney, Twitter Bank Runs, and Minsky Moments

27 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Pope in a puffer jacket.

Bank of England Hikes: Bailey Tells Firms To Not Raise Prices

24 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And deposit guarantees are in the news - never a good thing.

Credit Suisse Rescued: But AT1 Bank Bonds Wiped Out

21 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Swiss regulator sends bank capital markets tumbling, but calm is restored later by EU and UK regulators.

Credit Suisse: Everything, Everywhere All At Once Is the Headline Being Used By Everyone, Everywhere

15 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Crazy bond markets today. 😬

Silicon Valley Bank On The Brink: Idiosyncratic or Systematic?

10 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

No-one cared about strong NFP jobs numbers today.

1981 Revisited: the US Yield Curve

08 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And Australia 🇦🇺 hikes for the 10th meeting in a row.

Non Farm Payrolls Week: Markets at the Whim of the Seasonal Adjustment Fairy.

06 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Also today: Argentina, and Andrew Hauser of the BoE.

The ECB’s Secret PowerPoint Slides

03 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Reuters has reported that at an ECB Council away day ‘more then two dozen’ slides showed that inflation is currently driven by profiteering, not w...

The One Where Jim Gets His Kids’ Mobile Phone Bill

01 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

And China 🇨🇳 manufacturing comes back strongly.

Debt Sustainability Special Episode

24 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In which I drag out the old Hemingway quote again, and delve into a new JPM paper on the subject.

Good News is Bad News in Global Markets Again

22 Feb 2023

Contributed by Lukas

But at last something to cheer about for the UK economy